wilko154 Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 4 hours ago, KentVillan said: The problem with comparing Tammy to Salah, Kane, and Aguero, is that these are strikers who are often going for worldies, and who tend to shoot on sight. They also create a lot of chances for themselves from nothing positions. That style of play is going to drive up the total shots figure, while pushing down the conversion %. Good statistical analysis is really important, but you have to compare like with like, and you have to factor in random variation (Tammy's only season in the PL was such a small sample of games from which to draw conclusions). Trusting my own eyes for a moment, I think you rarely see Tammy place a finish in the way you'd expect of a top class striker, and I don't think that's something that comes with age. A very good player, with a good all-round game, but I'd be surprised if he makes it as a Champions League striker. More of a mid-table PL player imo, or a squad player at a top side. I would expect Abraham to get better with age. At 21 years old, those 3 players wouldn't have been classed as top class strikers and would likely have been more reserved in their shots. Granted the opposition they would have faced would have been a lot more difficult than Tammy has faced this season, but we have to work with the stats we have. Harry Kane 2014/15 (Spurs) - 34 apps - 21 goals - 3.3 shots per game - scored 18.72% of shots Sergio Aguero 2009/10 (Athletico Madrid) - 31 apps - 12 goals - 2.8 shots per game - scored 13.82% of shots Mo Salah 2013/14 (Basel) - Stats not available but scored 4 goals in 18 appearances 2013/14 (Chelsea) - 10 apps - 2 goals - 2.1 shots per game - scored 9.52% of shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveAV1 Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 I think that statistics are an important tool, but not the only measure of a player or team’s ability. Ignore them at your peril, they bring order to the emotional confusion, but that doesn’t mean to say that the experienced eye has no value. It’s a form of analysis to be used within the whole toolbox. I would say though, “If it doesn’t get measured, it doesn’t get done”, may be a well used phrase, but a valuable one. And one which I think is pretty high up in our club’s psychology at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junxs Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 Dean Saunders was saying on Talksport this morning that he has turned us down to stay at Chelsea. He went on to say that it's completely the wrong decision, and although Chelsea have a better side at the moment that Villa is arguably the bigger club and he would be playing week in week out. I haven't seen this reported elsewhere in the few hours since though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 3 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said: I agree with this but it’s what we need right now. Yep, I'm all for signing him. He has a great all-round game and great attitude. I just don't buy into the statistical analysis about his finishing ability. Be very, very surprised if he gets up to the level of the other players mentioned, but fingers crossed for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teale's 'tache Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, Junxs said: Dean Saunders was saying on Talksport this morning that he has turned us down to stay at Chelsea. He went on to say that it's completely the wrong decision, and although Chelsea have a better side at the moment that Villa is arguably the bigger club and he would be playing week in week out. I haven't seen this reported elsewhere in the few hours since though Dean Saunders lives in a magical dreamland where what he thinks and actual fact intertwine seamlessly. In short, he doesn't know anything about this transfer, he's made it up to forward the point he wants to make about Villa being bigger than Chelsea. Which is a controversial opinion and will surely have the Chelsea fans ringing in, this is exactly what TalkSprout pay him to do. Loved him as a player, loathe him as a pundit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 22 hours ago, wilko154 said: So I want to give a bit of perspective on Tammy Abraham. I've seen a lot mentioned around his poor finishing, missing too many chances, wouldn't be prolific enough for us in the Premier League. Here are the stats: Tammy Abraham 2018/19 (Aston Villa) - 40 apps - 26 goals - 2.9 shots per game - scored 22.41% of shots 2017/18 (Swansea) - 16 apps - 5 goals - 1.4 shots per game - scored 22.32% of shots 2016/17 (Bristol C) - 41 apps - 23 goals - 2.7 shots per game - scored 20.78% of shots Now % wise this doesn't look that great, so lets compare against some other strikers. Mo Salah 2018/19 (Liverpool) - 38 apps - 22 goals - 3.6 shots per game - scored 16.08% of shots Sergio Aguero 2018/19 (Man City) - 33 apps - 21 goals - 3.6 shots per game - scored 17.68% of shots Harry Kane 2018/19 (Spurs) - 28 apps - 17 goals - 3.6 shots per game - scored 16.87% if shots Now let's compare it to his closest competition in the Championship this season. Teemu Pukki 2018/19 (Norwich) - 43 apps - 29 goals - 3.3 shots per game - scored 20.44% of shots Neal Maupay 2018/19 (Brentford) - 43 apps - 25 goals - 3.3 shots per game - scored 17.62% of shots What does this tell us? Well three main things for me: 1) The main importance for all of these strikers has been the amount of chances their teams have created for them. In our case we are creating an average of 2.9 chances per game for Abraham. If we can increase that to 3.6 chances/shots per game as the Premier League strikers are getting then Tammy would (in a stats world) score 32 goals in the same amount of appearances. 2) Year on year Tammy Abraham is becoming a better striker 3) The fact that Abraham misses too many chances is a myth. There will be a reason why the top PL strikers average 17% success on their shots whilst the top Championship strikers average 20%. I’d guess it is because PL keepers are better at saving their shots. I would expect Abraham’s success percentage to drop when in the premier league and unfortunately the number of chances he receives will likely go down as well. That said, I’d still love to sign him if the opportunity was available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pintpotvilla Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 8 hours ago, Junxs said: Dean Saunders was saying on Talksport this morning that he has turned us down to stay at Chelsea. He went on to say that it's completely the wrong decision, and although Chelsea have a better side at the moment that Villa is arguably the bigger club and he would be playing week in week out. I haven't seen this reported elsewhere in the few hours since though I listened to Talk Sport this morning. He didn't say that Tammy had turned us down for Chelski he just said he should sign for Villa as they were a massive club. This then turned into who is the biggest club phone-in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 Dean Saunders is not going to be getting exclusive news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Made In Aston Posted June 4, 2019 Share Posted June 4, 2019 On 03/06/2019 at 19:18, deeps said: Just to let you all know, he has removed Aston Villa on his Instagram BIO Why would he keep it on when his contract has expired and is officially back at Chelsea again?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Doesn't seem like something he'd post if he thought he might be coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted June 6, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted June 6, 2019 Yeah he's not coming judging by that post. Will no doubt try his luck at Chelsea. Good luck to him. Where do we go now? Interesting times ahead .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacketspuds Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Bring him home... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Made In Aston Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, Davkaus said: Doesn't seem like something he'd post if he thought he might be coming back. He can hardly say 'see you next season at Villa park lads'. At this stage they're might noy be in place and, if it is, it will be confidential. He won't be allowed to jepodise it by letting the cat out the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USVillanUTV Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Then either say nothing or post a “congrats for promotion and glad to be a part of it” type of message. “Special place in my heart” is sort of the code words for “I’m not returning”, for whatever cause. -dj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deeps Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Shame. Good luck Tammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest av1 Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Thanks Tammy, your goals were a massive part in us getting there. Now get Neal Maupay please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 He said similar last season - was waiting for a prem loan it didn't come so he joined us late on. If he feels he has a chance at Chelsea that looks to be his first choice. If this doesn't happen he may get other takers. problem is we can't wait around until he decides. I think Grant Holt would be almost as good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Chelsea will have a new manager in a month, even so with he transfer ban they should at leas give him a chance, don't think he's that level personally but they have no options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted June 6, 2019 Moderator Share Posted June 6, 2019 Didn’t enjoy moving that one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 enjoyed watching him last season. Good luck TA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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