The AVFC FFP thread

[HKP90]

On 14/12/2021 at 13:56, pas5898 said:

If NSWE "did a Lerner" they'd make a profit. Explains why they are actual elite businessmen and didn't inherit a fortune.

Club Value probably 250-300mill. Watkins, Mcginn, Mings, Konsa, Cash could easily raise 200million. Add in the youngsters coming through (Ramsey has saved us 30million). From an FFP perspective we are in a much better position than  Everton for example who have capped out and have many players with limited resale value. Pretty much every player in our squad except Young would get north of 20 million, with quite a few 40million+

 

.

I read somewhere that under ffp we only have 5m to spend in Jan, which I must admit sounds like hogwash given the Grealish sale. 
 

Article had us second to last only above Everton.

I’ll try and dig out the link later when I can.

[danceoftheshamen]

On 14/12/2021 at 14:03, The Fun Factory said:

That's the plan. I just hope it happens. We need to find ways to increase revenue to match our spending- and I expect the answer to that is more sponsorship, more merchandise, more corporate, better branding, and a improved Villa Park.

All of course dependant on a good team! So there has to be outlay prior to any major increase in incomes. This is the conundrum of course. You need to spend big money to get a decent team together quickly enough before it is bled of it's best talent by teams currently above you who see you looming as a threat to their dominance, for example: Grealish.

Once you have a team that can win the odd trophy / compete in Europe, you then can move to the next stage with increases in revenue from all the avenues you mention. Of course you need the success on the pitch to also grow significantly internationally.

This is the big problem with FFP. It has allowed certain clubs to steal a march on everyone else and is now prohibitive to clubs like ours in trying to catch them. The playing field is far from level that's for sure. Add in 3,000 000 penalties for Man U per season compared to the 4 or 5 we get and the difficulty to challenge is very clear.

[paul514]

16 hours ago, sne said:

Speaking of those 10 years.

 

The wages one means F all it’s over a ten year period of three different owners and in two different leagues, only todays matter.

the losses much the same up to the last three years other than it shows how badly the club has been run.

[Laughable Chimp]

16 hours ago, HKP90 said:

I read somewhere that under ffp we only have 5m to spend in Jan, which I must admit sounds like hogwash given the Grealish sale. 
 

Article had us second to last only above Everton.

I’ll try and dig out the link later when I can.

I don't think it would've included the Grealish sale, but if it didn't, it probably wouldn't have included our summer purchases too which is where basically all of our Grealish money was spent anyway. So I doubt it would've made much of a difference.

We've been running very large operating losses ever since the new owners took over as they've invested a lot into us but haven't really made the profit back yet. Part of it may have been due to covid, but we really need to start turning a decent profit soon I think because I doubt we can keep spending as much as we have whilst being in the red for so long.

 

 

 

[sne]

4 hours ago, paul514 said:

The wages one means F all it’s over a ten year period of three different owners and in two different leagues, only todays matter.

the losses much the same up to the last three years other than it shows how badly the club has been run.

Yeah I was putting it here to highlight how badly ran we have been, how much money we've wasted and how far we have to go to be able to financially compete with the big boys. Could have put it in any number of other threads too.

The Grealish sale means we'll be OK regarding FFP but the clubs we want to catch pretty much has a 10 year head start on us

[pas5898]

3 hours ago, sne said:

The Grealish sale means we'll be OK regarding FFP but the clubs we want to catch pretty much has a 10 year head start on us

From an FFP perspective we are still only operating from 2 premier league seasons tv revenue + 1 championship season (peanuts).

Add another seasons tv revenue (100mil) + Grealish money then we will be in a decent FFP position.

[ender4]

23 minutes ago, pas5898 said:

From an FFP perspective we are still only operating from 2 premier league seasons tv revenue + 1 championship season (peanuts).

Add another seasons tv revenue (100mil) + Grealish money then we will be in a decent FFP position.

That's true.   So we can spend more this summer?

[Czarnikjak]

How did we end up with FFP thread being hijacked by vaccination discussion? Can this be discussed somewhere else and leave this thread to FFP.

[OutByEaster?]

1 hour ago, Czarnikjak said:

How did we end up with FFP thread being hijacked by vaccination discussion? Can this be discussed somewhere else and leave this thread to FFP.

I've moved part of that discussion to Other Football's - Covid 19 and Football thread - can we keep this one to FFP matters please.

Thank you.

[paul514]

13 hours ago, sne said:

Yeah I was putting it here to highlight how badly ran we have been, how much money we've wasted and how far we have to go to be able to financially compete with the big boys. Could have put it in any number of other threads too.

The Grealish sale means we'll be OK regarding FFP but the clubs we want to catch pretty much has a 10 year head start on us

Definitely,  those clubs we want to catch don't just spend similar amounts when they shift a player on they are getting good fees for them.

The only way to catch up is to not only spend as much but to spend it smartly.

This includes selling players at the right time, like getting rid of AEG last summer would have been the right time.

[Nigel]

On 20/12/2021 at 05:31, Laughable Chimp said:

I don't think it would've included the Grealish sale, but if it didn't, it probably wouldn't have included our summer purchases too which is where basically all of our Grealish money was spent anyway. 

 

 

 

 

 

It really wasn't!

[Czarnikjak]

Not a pretty reading, less than half of what Leicester are getting...we will never catch-up the big 6.,.that ship has sailed...bridges drawned etc

 

 

[WallisFrizz]

3 hours ago, Czarnikjak said:

Not a pretty reading, less than half of what Leicester are getting...we will never catch-up the big 6.,.that ship has sailed...bridges drawned etc

 

 

We knew this thought didn’t we- re never catching up those established at the top. Sometimes it does make you wonder what the point is. I actually think that Champions League teams should not be eligible for the League Cup but let it remain as a route into the Europa…a genuine chance at progression for the Other 14. 
Re the sponsorship, we need to be getting better out of our next deal. Everton getting 3mil a year more than us out of Cazoo isn’t great.

[Zatman]

3 hours ago, WallisFrizz said:

We knew this thought didn’t we- re never catching up those established at the top. Sometimes it does make you wonder what the point is. I actually think that Champions League teams should not be eligible for the League Cup but let it remain as a route into the Europa…a genuine chance at progression for the Other 14. 
Re the sponsorship, we need to be getting better out of our next deal. Everton getting 3mil a year more than us out of Cazoo isn’t great.

It was the start of our 2nd season back in the league and we just stayed up. We weren't that big of a draw at the time

[villa4europe]

3 hours ago, WallisFrizz said:

We knew this thought didn’t we- re never catching up those established at the top. Sometimes it does make you wonder what the point is. I actually think that Champions League teams should not be eligible for the League Cup but let it remain as a route into the Europa…a genuine chance at progression for the Other 14. 
Re the sponsorship, we need to be getting better out of our next deal. Everton getting 3mil a year more than us out of Cazoo isn’t great.

That's it for me, FFP was man utd putting sheep's clothing on convincing everyone man City was the big bad wolf and that we should all hide in their larder 

David Gill the man utd executive being one of the main driving forces behind it should have told people exactly what it was 

Lerner was right to **** it off no matter how wrong he was in how he did it 

[Delphinho123]

Just now, ChicagoVillan1983 said:

My guess is that seeing Newcastle and others getting decent takeovers, seeing the likes of Everton struggle while seeing West Ham and Arsenal improvements, they are thinking they need to throw everything they have at moving up the league right now and getting into Europe.

I do worry for the future though if we don't get Europe and just stand still.
Will this spending come back to haunt us?

[ChicagoVillan1983]

2 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

I do worry for the future though if we don't get Europe and just stand still.
Will this spending come back to haunt us?

Just look at Everton! Although I have more confidence in our team than theirs.

[MaVilla]

Just now, Delphinho123 said:

I do worry for the future though if we don't get Europe and just stand still.
Will this spending come back to haunt us?

what spending?

Yes we spent huge the first 2 seasons we came up, but this summer just gone we made a net profit on transfers of 25m ish, even if we spend 20m on Digne and 6-8m on Coutinho's wages/loan, that puts us to roughly net zero spend over the last 12 months.

even if you go back to last Jan and include the transfers from that window (Sanson - 15m), that would still put us only to roughly 15m net spend since Jan 2021.

Granted we did net spend 230m the two years before that, but the last 12 months spending have been very reserved on balance.

 

But i see ur point, we have spunked a LOT of cash overall in the last 3 years..

[CVByrne]

By my calculations we had enough leeway to pay jack a pay rise and have signed Buendia. It's possible we had room for Bailey too but being conservative assume, Bailey, Ings, Coutinho, Digne are all only possible due to Jacks sale. Now JAcks sale was a booked profit of 100m or 81m (depending on if we paid 19% tax on the profit) and we had room for his new contract at 10m per year. So being conservative lets say it was 81m profit and 10m in wages. So thats +91m for 21/22 season

The 4 players listed will cost us ~33m in transfer fee amortisation and wages this season meaning 58m of headroom remains. We can sign anyone we want really but it's more about the future years. So if we sell Trez, AEG, Guilbert and Davis we will book a profit of over 20m most likely and could be up to around 25m as there is little transfer fee amortisation left on them. 

We also have our new sponsorship deals which will at least increase our annual income by 15-20m. The new Premier League deal will NBC will bring in another 5-6m per year. While hopefully we can get a top 10 finish, each place higher than last season we finish is another £3m so if we can get 8th or 9th that is more income. 

I think there is room for a Bissouma for 45m, Coutinho for 33m and another CB for 20m if we move on players and the projections hold next season.

[sidcow]

44 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

By my calculations we had enough leeway to pay jack a pay rise and have signed Buendia. It's possible we had room for Bailey too but being conservative assume, Bailey, Ings, Coutinho, Digne are all only possible due to Jacks sale. Now JAcks sale was a booked profit of 100m or 81m (depending on if we paid 19% tax on the profit) and we had room for his new contract at 10m per year. So being conservative lets say it was 81m profit and 10m in wages. So thats +91m for 21/22 season

The 4 players listed will cost us ~33m in transfer fee amortisation and wages this season meaning 58m of headroom remains. We can sign anyone we want really but it's more about the future years. So if we sell Trez, AEG, Guilbert and Davis we will book a profit of over 20m most likely and could be up to around 25m as there is little transfer fee amortisation left on them. 

We also have our new sponsorship deals which will at least increase our annual income by 15-20m. The new Premier League deal will NBC will bring in another 5-6m per year. While hopefully we can get a top 10 finish, each place higher than last season we finish is another £3m so if we can get 8th or 9th that is more income. 

I think there is room for a Bissouma for 45m, Coutinho for 33m and another CB for 20m if we move on players and the projections hold next season.

The whole PL TV deal is up again next week too.  They rolled over the existing for an extra year.

You can bet there will be Amazon and/or other streaming services banging down the door.  Wouldn't be surprised to see another big uplift in TV broadcast income.  We may be gambling a bit on that already, the future instalments on some of these players might be far less relevant.

Edited January 14, 2022 by sidcow