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blandy last won the day on April 2

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About blandy

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    Fettling, Cricket, Ale, Music.

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  1. With 8 days of drops in reported cases, I guess we'll find out very soon whether the hospital figures start falling. At the moment they're still going up at a fair lick.
  2. We will. I think, fwiw, the two leagues are very different. the financial gap is so huge that by and large the Prem really ought to have no or very very few issues with clubs going bust because of reckless ownership, whereas the EFL clubs has massive issues, particularly for relegated clubs, or those gambling on spending and going up to the Prem. They need (for the sake of club survival) to be more strict. If the purpose of FFP is to make clubs stable and viable, rather than to rig the game for certain clubs, then the PL being less transparent and more flexible is perhaps a good thing? And back to the original question, Christian Purslow was one of the PL FFP boffins, and will I imagine know exactly what leeway the club has for spending under the PL rules, both as written and as privately amended to allow for covid hits). We're heading in the right direction.
  3. I still don't think it'll be the same as the EFL. the 4 seasons thing you posted - not from what I've read, anyway which was to allow the averaging over 2 seasons, but definitely not adding in an extra season and dividing by 4 and multiplying by 3. I also read that clubs' covid costs and revenue hits will be written off, in terms of FFP calcs. I think while the EFL and PL kind of try and align, broadly, they have different sets of detailed rules and stuff around FFP and what's in and what's out - the EFL are more descriptive and detailed, the PL more kind of relaxed about it.
  4. I know what you're saying, and accept it. There is (to me) though some simplistic facts. The virus is still present and the virus spreads through aerosol transmission. There are still 30 million people not fully vaxxed, and 20 million not vaxxed at all. Vaxxed people can still catch and spread it. The R rate is still above 1. Tests are down by nigh on a million a week, and positives from tests down by 100K a week. We don't know the factors behind the big reduction in tests - is it because fewer people are getting what they think are symptoms and so reflecting an actual fall in cases, or are people deciding not to get tested even if they feel they might have it? or is it solely schools and workplaces testing less because of summer holidays? Clearly if you stop testing, or reduce testing you will detect fewer cases. I posted a while ago that it's hospital admissions that should be the driver at the moment in tracking and managing the pandemic in the UK, and these are still rising (nearly 6000 a week, now). Obviously they lag a week or two behind cases, but I think what I'm saying is you're right about "should", but the science people do, if not 100% know, then at least have strong scientific theory around why cases grow and decline and even end. The vaccination numbers are not sufficient, even with additional immunity from post covid illness protection to match the high level of infectiousness of the virus, given the 20 million+ unprotected people. It's more than a "don't really know" level of knowledge around growth and ending points, from my understanding.
  5. Maybe the thread could be reengineered out of multiple largeheartednesses?
  6. The PL rules say something different to the EFL - I think the PL rules said at the start of the season just ended, something like "we're just not applying the rules for 2019/20, (the first Covid season)". Yeah, they did "In respect of Season 2019/20, the provisions of Rules E.50 to E.53 shall not apply". For the season soon to start (next month), the rules say (as I posted a page or so back). So I've seen nothing anywhere that says the EFL version applies to the PL. I have seen people saying the PL was making allowance for Covid's impact by allowing the losses to be averaged over 2 years, though that's not documented in their rule book. The PL rules only cover 3 years, from all I've read, but happy to be better informed.
  7. How certain are you of that, that the monitoring window is 4 years, not 3? I get the bit about 19/20 and 20/21 being adjusted for Covid, but not the inclusion of the 4th year. I had (perhaps mistakenly) interpreted the rules as saying the last 2 seasons are treated as a whole, but the overall period is still the last 3 years
  8. Thanks. So the total allowed is the 70 + 13 = 83 (not 61 as per your earlier post) - that's the bit I don't get, really. or 70+13+13=96 even?
  9. I agree. But we need perhaps to factor in that there's an emotional side to people's conclusions - the bias of "this is what I want to be the result". As you said Perhaps we can factor in that we know (like all of the other managers) Guardiola really rates Jack, as he's publicly said so. Also that up to this point City have spent (and have the resources to continue spending) an absolute eff-ton of money on buying players, but that they tend not to be at the top end of the individual player fees, so Jack or Kane, who would command huge fees would be outside of their "model". The last factor to include is the Agent's words - his job is to get money for Jack and himself. Either via a new contract, or via transfer deals, and that's why he's been ambiguous at best when asked/speaking about Jack's future. A weakness/strength (it can be both) that I have is following the logic of a situation, but not appreciating the emotional weight people introduce into their own thinking. Ruling out their verdicts as nonsense is kind of counter productive. Brexit is the ultimate example of that. Factually it makes no overall sense, yet more people voted for it than against it. Emotionally, it must have made sense to vote for it for many people. But on Jack, like you say he's a footballer that City would want within a price, and that Villa want to keep (also within a price). That's all this all is. "Superb player coveted by mega wealthy club" is a pretty standard summer transfer window "story" and page filler, and with both City and Villa being pretty tight in terms of keeping stuff in-house there's just a ton of hot air to fill the void. I desperately want him to stay at Villa, he's worth more than money.
  10. Are you sure that's right? For the situation in May 2021 the three years (FFP monitoring periods) in question are the 20/21 season (Prem), the 19/20 season (Prem) and the 18/19 season (EFL). The allowable losses are therefore correspondingly 35, 35 and 13 =83, (not the 61 you show). So, while there's the additional complexity/leeway of the 20/21 actual figure being allowed to be an average of that season and the one before to address/mitigate the impact of Covid costs, the 3 seasons in question do not include 17/18 as I understand it @Czarnikjak? I also wonder whether the club's not including of 36 million income in the figures which could have been put in this years accounts has been done because we could still meet the allowable losses figures for the past 3 years with them excluded, and then the next lot will have a rolling allowance of 105 mill (3 prem seasons) and the losses from last year get out of the system a year sooner than otherwise would have been the case.
  11. I thought you were guessing @dAVe80’s list. Whatever, they’re all pretty decent.
  12. Yeah, absolutely. it looks like stuff like the football possibly caused part of the earlier rises a week or two ago as people watched in the ground and pubs and houses etc. and that’s kind of (obviously) stopped happening, at least till next month. Then the spell of lovely weather. And because of the time lag between catching, hospital, death the latter two (hopefully) should drop off too over the next month. Mostly, too people are still doing the masks and wfh where possible, so we could be on for a good period, at least until football starts again and the weather goes a bit crap again. TBF the science men did say that’s why the government was binning of all the precautions on last Monday. But the virus hasn’t gone away, millions can still catch it and get ill, or worse.
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