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Generic Virus Thread


villakram

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This explains why you not only want to lockdown, but want to restrict travel between communities.

It very elegantly explains why holding mass gatherings with wide catchment areas (like Cheltenham Festival) was such a huge mistake. It's not just about the risk of transmission, but the risk of transmission across communities.

Another example would be: a Liverpool Champions League match is far more dangerous than any Bluenose match - not just because of the massive difference in crowd size, but because the Bluenose match probably only involves 2 main communities of people, whereas the Liverpool v Atletico match would have had Liverpool fans from all over UK + Europe, plus Spanish fans.

If one "super-spreader" at the Liverpool game transmits to enough people, victims will take that home to all corners of the UK, and you have maybe 4 or 5 different regional outbreaks that will grow independently, and be difficult to trace. A super-spreading event at the Bluenose game is much more containable, because it's probably siblings, cousins, second cousins, etc. who can all be pinpointed to one caravan, which can be burnt down.

I don't think people are quite appreciating at the moment how momentously bad the decision to not cancel mass gatherings was, but it will become very obvious in the next couple of weeks. Feel sick thinking about it.

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Seems that shit’s beginning to get even more serious now. Looking at the data, reports and accounts from Italy, this is set to get a hell of a lot worse in the coming weeks. The UK’s decision to not impose their authority could well have dire consequences. Around here, the majority of people are doing anything but reducing social contact. In fact it’s as busy as a Saturday, everyday. The high streets and shopping centres are full, people are in pubs and the amount of face touching, coughing and sneezing I’ve seen is concerning. 
 

There seems to be a collective attitude of it won’t happen to me. My wife is a deputy care home manager, they’ve put signs up and contacted families to ask them to reduce visits. But they’re still turning up in numbers every day. Increasing the risk of spreading it into the home. It’s a deprivation of liberty to deny access, they can only explain the risk and ask politely. It makes no difference, they still visit, sometimes with the whole family. I just hope that none of the staff get it, they’re already understaffed with LTS. No matter what happens my wife and the manager will have to be there working all hours to keep it running. 

I know there’s many people in much worse situations, so I don’t want to appear like I’m complaining selfishly. But it is worrying on the whole. Bad times. 

 

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52 minutes ago, It's Your Round said:

Around here, the majority of people are doing anything but reducing social contact. In fact it’s as busy as a Saturday, everyday. The high streets and shopping centres are full, people are in pubs and the amount of face touching, coughing and sneezing I’ve seen is concerning. 

Isn’t this what the government want to build the herd immunity? In an ideal scenario the virus flies through the younger, fitter population quickly and they get better without needing hospital treatment.  

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18 minutes ago, Genie said:

Isn’t this what the government want to build the herd immunity? In an ideal scenario the virus flies through the younger, fitter population quickly and they get better without needing hospital treatment.  

Which is fine in theory, well apart from there’s no proof it will work that way, and all the dead people. A good proportion of the people I’ve seen out are over 50-60. I appreciate people have to go out for supplies etc... as I do too. Maybe it’s early enough for it not to matter. It just seems like nobody’s bothered. 

We’ll see how good the herd immunity approach is later on, I guess. 

Edited by It's Your Round
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On 18/03/2020 at 21:28, mikeyp102 said:

So I think I’ve worked out the cause of this stuff.... 

The house of mouse ...Their tv product launches in Europe next week. What better way to boost sales of their service by having everyone unable to leave the house. :D

So this has more backing.. (stolen from Facebook)

The film Tangled is about a girl who is quarantined for a long period. The name of the Kingdom the story is based...Corona

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3 minutes ago, TheMelvillan said:

So we have  a nation of bored men working from home all day, a dramatic upsurge in internet usage and a national shortage of big roll :detect:

Nope. Dont see any connection there...

 

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11 hours ago, leighavfc said:

I wouldn't mate if you can at least delay or more ideally pull out. The market could and probably will crash at any point really, you literally could be losing 10's of thousands pounds in a matter of hours/days/weeks depending on how fast things drop. A friend of mine has had to pull out this week upon the realisation of how serious this about to become, he was literally at contract stage this week and is gutted about it. He realised that losing the fees etc were so much a smaller hit than going through and being in negative equity from the off in the new place.

I can still pull out. We haven't even had an offer accepted. We just have an offer pending that we know the seller is seriously considering. Which doesn't make me feel any better because until this week she was adamant she wouldn't take below asking. And now she's dropped almost £20k.

I think I'll delay

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2 hours ago, It's Your Round said:

Seems that shit’s beginning to get even more serious now. Looking at the data, reports and accounts from Italy, this is set to get a hell of a lot worse in the coming weeks. The UK’s decision to not impose their authority could well have dire consequences. Around here, the majority of people are doing anything but reducing social contact. In fact it’s as busy as a Saturday, everyday. The high streets and shopping centres are full, people are in pubs and the amount of face touching, coughing and sneezing I’ve seen is concerning. 
 

There seems to be a collective attitude of it won’t happen to me. My wife is a deputy care home manager, they’ve put signs up and contacted families to ask them to reduce visits. But they’re still turning up in numbers every day. Increasing the risk of spreading it into the home. It’s a deprivation of liberty to deny access, they can only explain the risk and ask politely. It makes no difference, they still visit, sometimes with the whole family. I just hope that none of the staff get it, they’re already understaffed with LTS. No matter what happens my wife and the manager will have to be there working all hours to keep it running. 

I know there’s many people in much worse situations, so I don’t want to appear like I’m complaining selfishly. But it is worrying on the whole. Bad times. 

 

Worth reading this thread from an NHS doctor, on exactly these points.

 

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12 hours ago, Stevo985 said:

On a similar note, I've been looking at houses with the OH for the last few weeks. 

Over the past couple we've made a couple of offers on one house, and I think we're pretty close to having one accepted.

 

Should I be doing this in this climate? Is it better to wait for it all to settle down?

My main reservation is my house was sold months ago so I have the deposit sat in my bank. If things go really tits up and one or both of us are out of a job or on unpaid leave, that money could come in handy.

 

Again I realise in the grand scheme of things this is a minor issue. We're very lucky really. But I'm feeling very uneasy about pushing forward with a house purchase (or the beginnings of one)

In a similar position ti you we were lookingbut have stopped. The missus has put a her house up and we have it up at 675k. We had two offers at 625k and we countered ay 660k before this all happened.

Now i dont think we will get anywhere near that 660k figure. Wondering if its worth accepting 630k as o think proces are going drop significantly 

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Just now, Demitri_C said:

In a similar position ti you we were lookingbut have stopped. The missus has put a her house up and we have it up at 675k. We had two offers at 625k and we countered ay 660k before this all happened.

Now i dont think we will get anywhere near that 660k figure. Wondering if its worth accepting 630k as o think proces are going drop significantly 

I think this is exactly what the people we're buying from are thinking. They have had the house up for ages and never dropped the price. According to the estate agents they've rejected loads of offers. 

Hadn't even thought about our couple of low offers. Rejected them straight away.

Now they're suddenly looking like they're going to take an offer 20k below asking. I feel like they're thinking what you are, we better take that offer because we might not get close to it for a long time after all of this 

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Looking at the numbers, the USA looks like it's on the verge of a real escalation in cases. It'll be interesting to see the response over the next few days - I hope the country stays calm and finds ways to cope. The realities of the US health system could become very clear next week.

 

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1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said:

Looking at the numbers, the USA looks like it's on the verge of a real escalation in cases. It'll be interesting to see the response over the next few days - I hope the country stays calm and finds ways to cope. The realities of the US health system could become very clear next week.

So, what patients will the hospitals prioritise? CV19 sufferers, or gunshot wounds? 

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Genuine thought/question and probably already covered but could the severity in spread in Italy and Spain be because they all kiss each other on the face when they greet one another? 
 

Has to have been a contributing factor surely?? 

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