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Awol last won the day on March 16

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  1. Hard to say how much that performance will cost us long term. But it was woeful. Gutted.
  2. Awol

    Israel, Palestine and Iran

    Iran has been moving many thousands of rockets into Syria and many more into Lebanon for months, those are meant for Israel, not for use in Syrian conflict. The Trump decision has brought it to a head, but an attack on Israel was in the post.
  3. Awol

    Israel, Palestine and Iran

    @Glarmorgan might have some news (if he’s not on the way to the front!) but Twitter lighting up with news of Iranian or Syrian rockets hitting the Golan and Israeli airstrikes around Damascus. Looks like Trump has literally fired the starting gun.
  4. Awol

    Israel, Palestine and Iran

    All true and fair enough. That being the case, is it your view that Israel is now or will shortly try to force a conflict on its own terms with IRGC forces in Syria and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon? What are your expectations vis Turkey and Russia if a hot war kicks off on Syrian territory/the Golan? Is there anything in the public domain on Israeli estimates of the transnational Shia militia numbers in Syria? Do you think they fall under the SAA or IRGC chain of command? These aren’t trick questions, I’m very interested in your take.
  5. Awol

    Israel, Palestine and Iran

    Boeing has also just lost a YUGE contract for 737’s to Iranian civil airlines (MAGA). They are basically flying antiques at this point. Can’t do linky at the moment but a google of ‘Crisis Group Iran’ will give you an excellent summary piece of just how dumb this move is.
  6. Awol

    Israel, Palestine and Iran

    @OutByEaster? We’ll see. Some redneck Senator was on the radio earlier & replied to this question along the lines of ‘our allies will stand with us’, seemingly unaware of the distinction between alliance and compulsion. The secondary aspect of sanctions will kick Europe squarely in the sack, so it might get quite nasty once Airbus et al mobilize their lobbyists.
  7. Awol

    Israel, Palestine and Iran

    No, sadly. Israel figures they will have to fight Iran eventually either directly or when they are attacked by Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon. I think they’re trying to make sure it happens at a time of their choosing, and now Assad is consolidating in Syria and Iran is building permanent bases there the Israeli position gets relatively less secure every day. The Israelis unsurprisingly want the US with them to guarantee superior combat power, but Russia being camped in Syria is a big issue. It could all go horribly wrong really fast, but hopefully it won’t!
  8. Awol

    Israel, Palestine and Iran

    That is interesting, supposedly they have very few centrifuges left. If they do have warehouses full of the things that would prove that they have, in fact, been cheating on the deal!
  9. Awol

    Israel, Palestine and Iran

    Unconfirmed reports they’ve hit targets in Syria within the last hour, also a partial call-up / mobilisation of some specialised trades - intelligence and airforce personnel. Next few days could be interesting.
  10. EU funded means paid for by the member states though, doesn’t it? By default that means the net contributors, of which we are the second largest. The PRS is, as you say, a strategic military asset for government use, and we along with France are the largest net European contributors to European security. Excluding the UK from PRS would (imo) be a punitive political decision, but as discussed without UK input that won’t be viable for some time. Norway is slated to be another user in addition to the US, although I don’t know if they were being offered PRS access. Anyway the point is no UK tech = no PRS, making this whole thing a charade anyway.
  11. Then we have a different understanding of the project. Third (non EU) parties will have access to the Galileo system, for example the US will be users - despite having GPS. The part the EU want to freeze the UK out of is the Public Regulated Service (PCS) which is the government only access data service. It’s also the part that will run on UK encryption tech! In addition they will freeze out UK companies from the ongoing build, but need UK tech to make it work... You can quote ‘leave means leave’ but that supposedly doesn’t apply to UK contributions to European defence and security, which the PCS aspect clearly falls under - and yes we’ve paid over a billion pounds into its development. If the EU throws this onto the table it could have unintended consequences in terms of what they expect to receive from the UK in all kinds of areas, but as stated, it’s just (imho) an unconvincing negotiaton tactic because without UK know-how they can’t complete the project - at least not for a long time.
  12. Awol

    Israel, Palestine and Iran

    It’s a bad thing if you want to stop Iran building the bomb. Removing the incentives not to do it by reimposing sanctions on Iran is double+ dumb & puts the UK, France and Germany in a really tough spot. If any foreign firms engage with Iranian companies they’ll be sanctioned in turn by the US , but if the EU pushes back it could lead to a big trans-Atlantic issue. I suspect (and it is a guess) that this will play itself out quite soon in Syria, Iraq and maybe Lebanon, but there are lots of variables and so many actors it’s really hard to anticipate. That said, the structural factors are shaping up for a conflict between Iran & Hezbollah versus Israel and the US in Syria. Killing the agreement is another step along that road, imo.
  13. Awol

    Israel, Palestine and Iran

    Media reporting Trump has informed Macron that he’s pulling the US out of the JCPOA and reimposing sanctions on Iran.
  14. Mr Peck is talking out of his behind. The EU Commission is threatening to lock the UK out of the secure data side of the Galileo project as punishment for leaving, citing that the UK will be a security risk. We have responded with a shrug and said we’ll do it ourselves. Neither position is true, it’s just a tactic by the EU to draw up a nonsensical position that can be resiled from later as a ‘concession’. The secure element of the Galileo system is reliant on UK technology, including the advanced encryption. If the UK were ‘locked out’ as the EU suggests, there would be no Galileo system for the foreseeable future. Although tiresome (and great sport for the likes of Peck) it’s nothing more than political posturing.
  15. Awol


    Putting this here because it might involve Russia soon - and seven years into the Syrian war seems a bit late to start a thread on it... But, Israel has (allegedly) hammered Iranian & Hezbollah targets in Syria tonight. Not sure what ordnance the IRGC was accumulating but one raid hit something big enough to set off a bang registering 2.6 on the Richter scale. The ratchet to a major conflagration in Syria keeps clicking higher.