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Awol

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Everything posted by Awol

  1. This is... interesting: When the People’s Daily is warning of a “potential second wave” in China, it means there’s already a second wave in China. Lockdown is a pause button, not a solution. Our government is trying to frame the reduction in the R0 as if we’re changing the behaviour of the virus, but we’re only limiting its ability to transmit. Out of lockdown the R0 remains 2.5 - 3.5 by most estimates. Masks, masks, masks. We can’t remain locked down forever and there’s no other way (yet) to control exponential spread except permanent lockdown, which is economic suicide. I’d really like a journalist to raise this point: Why aren’t we setting up the infrastructure to make masks in UK?
  2. Corbyn’s mentalist brother has been arrested there today.
  3. As long as everyone else stays away from them, I’m failing to see the downside. Was surprised to hear Jonathan Sumption arguing against the look down the other day, but aside from Peter Hitchens who makes a living off being a contrarian, I’ve not heard anyone serious arguing that it’s wrong.
  4. Unless or until domestic production capacity is established (by government, not improvised ad-hoc with private sector firms) this problem isn’t going away. We need 10’s of millions of masks per day being produced and distributed to enable a ‘safe’ easing of lockdown. I’ve not seen any indication that this is happening.
  5. For once I'm actually gratefully to be living in Scotland. Schools break at end of June for summer and Sturgeon has made it clear no one is going back in before then. Also noticed this Kawasaki syndrome starting to increasing where kids have a very nasty auto-immune reaction after beating Covid. Thing is it can manifest 6 weeks after being initially infected. It's rare at the moment but I'll be less concerned if its still rare in 6 weeks time.
  6. I would hope they’d still be present (if they were there in the first place) and I don’t know if they would provide lasting/any immunity. No one does yet. Edit: obviously the same goes for anyone who has or thinks they may have already had it. The fact there now seems to be a reliable test is the rather more important bit.
  7. This doesn’t look great though.
  8. Yep, you, me and a few others had this conversation about 100 pages ago. I remember b/c neither of us could drink on Christmas Day!
  9. If antibodies are present yes, because that’s when I was sick.
  10. Times and Telegraph both carrying the story that Roche have developed a 100% accurate anti body test. Porton Down have checked and approved it, PHE talking to Roche. Hopefully we can soon get a handle on how many people have actually had the virus. Now very curious to know if I had it last December.
  11. My bold: Agreed. I think the stock market is only holding up for now because funds can’t just sit on cash. They need to invest and there’s almost nowhere else (including sovereign bonds) to put money and make a return.
  12. Strategy for a Pandemic: The UK & Covid 19 Article by Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman drawn mostly from the primary SAGE sources, so the actual advice the government based its decisions on. He’s got no political affiliation/axe to grind and is always worth a read - full article (52 pages) linked through the above. First little bit below:
  13. Government: You can meet your mother in the park, if she’s on her own and wearing a hat. Also Government: You can have a child minder and/or a cleaner inside your home, if you open a window. I thought transparency was supposed to apply to government actions, not motives? Not even trying to disguise the fact the rules are being written to suit middle class metropolitan types. No wonder Kier Starmer is staying onside.
  14. How to solve a problem like Corona Government strategy on getting us out of ... everything. I’ve not read it yet (60 pages) so can’t quote from it, but linking for general info.
  15. Some think they can do no right, others think they can do no wrong. The vast majority (imo) aren’t interested in partisan bickering but want reassurance there’s a clear plan being competently executed. That’s not the case right now.
  16. The Nightingale hospitals are complete so the infrastructure is now ready to follow the policy they wanted to take from the beginning, but lacked the NHS capacity to pursue. It is true that we can’t suspend the economy indefinitely in the hope a vaccine comes through in 12-18 months, but the people who make that decision should be exposed to the same level of risk as everyone else. Only then will employers be forced to rigidly apply the kind of mitigation (PPE all round) necessary to minimize the chance of infection. If the whole country (including kids) wore masks it would be a different situation, as the Taiwanese have demonstrated. If that means longer in quarantine until it can be supplied, so be it. The German experience is showing how difficult coming out of lockdown will be unless everyone is masked up.
  17. I didn’t expect all the details, I did expect it to be coherent. By next weekend expect polling to show they’ve just lost the benefit of the doubt with millions of people... ...then Hancock will go under the bus.
  18. Too many of the great and the good need access to their summer homes in France, I can’t think of any other logical explanation. That briefing last night was absolute cake and arse. Given the time they’ve had to prepare for this the lack of clarity is unforgivable. UK is still running 16,000 new infections per day and the R rate in some places is still 0.9. Scientists are saying we now that down to 4,000 per day to give us any chance of controlling community spread by track and trace. Germany started easing off restrictions what, 7-10 days ago? The R there is already up to 1.1. From a lower base than us. We don’t have the head room yet to ease up on the current measures at all without tipping back into exponential growth in very short order. I think we’re now reaching the crunch point in that the Treasury can’t afford to keep bank-rolling the workforce and businesses will start to fail on mass if they can’t begin trading soon. On the flip-side, as soon as people start going back to work the virus will take off again. The lockdown has bought some time but hasn’t solved the central problem: either the country will grow broke (with all the implications for services across the board) or we accept a much higher number of deaths. Looks to me like we’re leaning towards the latter.
  19. I wasn’t personally involved in the resurrection but still crack a chocolate egg at Easter. “You weren’t there, man” seems a pretty weak reason for chastising a historical commemoration. Agree it’s stupid to break social distancing, but as someone else has noted, all week the media (that Cruella De Vil looking tramp off Sky in particular) have been pushing the line that it’s all gonna be relaxed this weekend anyway. Subliminal sh*t stirring to manufacture a story. That’s a fair reason to get cross, but once you start throwing Brexit in it’s hard to believe that’s what your real beef is. It’s “them”, those people, those “words removed” again, f****** things up.
  20. Racist little Englanders, innit? That’s why the well known British nationalist Emmanuel Macron was out celebrating it in Paris. It’s why the Russians will be celebrating (hard) tomorrow.... because it’s really all about white, middle class Brexit voters. The correlation between Anglophobia and EUphilia is uncanny - and Brexit Derangement Syndrome is a thing.
  21. Celebrating the end of the war and the defeat of fascism is literally what it is. Any other interpretation is projection of people’s own views, usually more grounded in contemporary politics - hence “VE Day Brexit throbbers.” Sad to see.
  22. Are they words removed because they’re not social distancing, or for celebrating the defeat of fascism and the ending of the largest conflict in human history?
  23. Said this from the beginning. Taiwan have attributed their massive successive in containing Covid to everyone wearing masks. It’s been normalized in East Asia since SARS for the same reason. Our ‘scientific advice’ was obviously based on a PPE shortage and the government not wanting to be in competition with the public to acquire it for the NHS, which needed it more. Now it’s very difficult to row back from that advice (despite the obvious benefits) because otherwise why should people trust the scientists if they were pulling the wool? Lack of candor and trusting the public has been the major failing of the government’s reaction to this - distinct from the systemic failure to prepare properly.
  24. I don’t think so, that’s why they’re unlikely to end this one precipitously. Whitty et al have said from the beginning that lockdown is a one shot deal. If we had a second major spike I think we’d end up ploughing through it. Unless Sweden ends up with catastrophic increase in deaths over the next few weeks then people will point at them and say that’s the model we have to follow.
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