HanoiVillan

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HanoiVillan last won the day on June 10 2018

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About HanoiVillan

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  1. HanoiVillan

    Tunisia, Egypt, Libya... Arab Countries in Revolt

    LOL (should probably add that while that made me laugh, my actual feeling is that giving Sajid Javid the power to arbitrarily strip dual-nationality citizens of their UK citizenship is an absolute abomination)
  2. She was tired, but was she emotional?
  3. I think this is a fair point, to be honest. However . . . . . . I think this is a bit of a 'tallest dwarf' contest. Unemployment top-line figures are great, but pay is growing faster from a very low starting point. Weekly pay is £31 per week lower than it was prior to the crash, once adjusted for inflation. So yes, we're beginning to move in the right direction, but we're creeping not rushing.
  4. I don't think it was only an electoral ploy, and as you say the vote happened before the campaign began, though despite May's denial there were rumours that she planned to call an election throughout that winter. It was also as you say a political decision made by the leadership, that there was an easier path in acknowledging the mandate given by the referendum result. I just think that the election result validates that decision as the correct one at the time.
  5. HanoiVillan

    The Film Thread

    'Burning' is really really good, though too long. It's a Korean movie, directed by Lee Chang-dong, in which a distinctly dopey guy from the countryside who is making a half-hearted effort at becoming a writer meets a girl he used to know when in the city one day, and then he fairly blatantly falls in love with her. She leaves him to feed her cat, which he does (but never sees it) while she goes on a trip to Nairobi, and when she comes back she's accompanied by a very dashing chap with a Porsche and a very nice apartment who seems to have stepped in from a Bret Easton Ellis novel (could be any of them). Then they hang out together for a while, with some fairly complicated but largely unspoken sexual dynamics between them, and then she goes missing and the whole thing gets even more serpentine and doesn't give many answers. The performances are great, and there's one extended scene at the dopey guy's farm where all three characters are together on one very complicated dope-and-confession-filled evening with a spectacular sunset that will live long in the memory. Give it a go, but be fully forewarned about the length. It also has nearly as many false endings as the last 'Lord of the Rings'.
  6. Clearly we are talking about counterfactuals, but the reality is that essentially every newspaper in the land supports Brexit, mostly of the hard variety, and I personally have no doubt that they would have kicked Labour from pillar to post. Remember how judges ruling that parliament should even have a vote at all were 'enemies of the people'? A further counterfactual I also believe, though this one is of necessity based less in empirical evidence, is that since lots of people in the Labour party quite firmly believe that there is a solid democratic mandate for Brexit, fighting the triggering of article 50 in 2017 might well have led to a splinter of the same size or even larger back then. Of course that's hypothetical, but it's hardly unimaginable.
  7. Triggering article 50 is pretty badly glossed as 'supporting the Tories'; it could equally well be said to be 'honouring the referendum result', and you can believe it would have been portrayed as the opposite by every single newspaper and talking head in the country if they had done the opposite. And I don't agree that these are some great unknowables about the election either. We know - we can see, from exit polls and from the differences from 2015 - that the Conservatives consolidated the leave vote, and that Labour consolidated the remain vote. That's how Labour won constituencies like Plymouth and Canterbury, and lost constituencies like Walsall North and Stoke-on-Trent South. There were many more leave-voting constituencies with vulnerable-seeming Labour incumbents than there were remain-voting Tory seats in which Labour were in second place, so it's obvious that Labour were near their ceiling in remain support and had much more downside risk in pissing off leavers. This isn't really controversial; nearly every post-election analysis remarked on how Labour had dodged a bullet by making the election about anything-but-Brexit. So no, I don't think it's an imponderable; had they opposed triggering article 50, they would have been wiped out in 2017.
  8. And what do we think would have happened to Labour, in the 2017 General Election, if Corbyn *hadn't* whipped his members to vote for triggering Article 50? I don't think it's a very controversial counterfactual to suggest that both the Tories and the media would have claimed that Labour were 'denying the will of the people', 'betraying Brexit' and so forth. They would have actually experienced the wipeout that everybody predicted. And then we wouldn't even be discussing this, would we, because May would have passed her WA even with some backbench defectors.
  9. The counterpoint to that is that arguing that the personality they vote for is their local candidate is also frequently inaccurate. I'm probably more interested in politics than 95% of the electorate, and I couldn't even tell you what James Morris (Con, Halesowen & Rowley Regis) looks like.
  10. That's the thing, isn't it, he didn't co-operate with them because they didn't want to. If we were now in an alternate universe where May had softened her red lines, I would be here giving some minor degree of praise to her for coming to her senses, and I wouldn't be denying that Corbyn is co-operating with the Tories. Because in that world they would be co-operating, to everyone's benefit. Sadly that's not where we are. He isn't co-operating with the move towards a No Deal Brexit, which is what your post implied, 'because ideally the nastier Brexit is, the more "people will hate the tories and let me have a go"'.
  11. Woah. So hang on, are you saying that you, personally, agree that 'a soft Leave is what needs to happen'? Since 'that's where the majority lies' (which appears to be true, I agree)? If so, what exactly can Labour have done differently, since the party conference last year, to achieve that target? Because that is the target, hyperbole aside.
  12. You can obviously see the problem with saying 'May hasn't changed a thing' as if that's Labour's fault I'm sure. It turns out, Labour aren't actually the government.
  13. He isn't 'anti-Brexit', and I haven't suggested otherwise. Labour's party policy was to implement Brexit. It is true that the leadership doesn't support a second referendum, but as usual remainers stubbornly ignore that there's no majority for one in Parliament, and that the government wouldn't timetable the legislation required.