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HanoiVillan

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HanoiVillan last won the day on January 28

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  1. Absolutely. A question was asked - a very fawning question, I might add - by an SNP MP at PMQ's which specifically asked if May would be discouraging members from using delaying tactics to derail the vote (the target of this comment was very, very obviously Mr Davies) and she stated how much she hoped that wouldn't happen. This guy is out of control. Frankly he should have the whip withdrawn.
  2. U.S. Politics

    'Politico . . . were also among those excluded from the meeting' Probably a bad idea to ban the news source that everyone on Capitol Hill consumes above all others.
  3. I think 'a supporter of Owen Smith' is getting way too far down into the weeds, I didn't know that and I'm somebody who actually cares and is interested in this stuff. Did she criticise Corbyn repeatedly during the campaign? Because otherwise Mr & Mrs Average don't know she's a Corbyn critic.
  4. It's not totally irrelevant, but the fact is oppositions normally massively increase their vote share during byelections.
  5. Things that piss you off that shouldn't

    I only like them if two people tell them at exactly the same time.
  6. Exactly, there's a difference between 'opinion' on an agree/disagree axis, and 'salience' on a care/don't care axis.
  7. As John Curtice argues in the column I posted in the Labour thread, it's clearer than ever that they need to go after the 48%. 2/3rds of their members voted to Remain, if they stop shitting on them it might at least stop those votes bleeding away, even if they can't add many more. They won't take this advice though. Brexit left them in a (nearly?) impossible position, but they're playing it dreadfully anyway.
  8. John Curtice makes typically good points: The remain vote is now Labour's urgent priority - Stoke and Copeland prove it 'Byelection nights are typically a source of succour for the opposition. Its vote usually goes up while the government almost invariably suffers some kind of reverse. But this pattern was entirely absent in both Copeland and Stoke. In Copeland Tory support increased by no less than 8.5 points – the biggest increase in support for a government party since Harold Wilson’s Labour government won the Hull North byelection in January 1966 (at the cost, incidentally, of a promise to build the Humber Bridge). This swing was enough to deliver the Tories a seat they had not won since 1931. Indeed, never before in the whole history of postwar British byelections has a government overturned so large an opposition majority as Labour was defending in Copeland. Doubtless Labour, whose support fell by five points, will argue that it had its own particular local difficulties in Copeland – the party’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, used at least to be antipathetic to the nuclear power industry, on which the constituency is heavily dependent. But for his critics, this local difficulty will be regarded as symptomatic of the wider unpopularity of some of his policy stances. Meanwhile, although the contest in Stoke had been widely portrayed as a two-horse race – and thus the third placed Conservative vote was supposedly vulnerable to a squeeze – Conservative support also increased there (by a couple of points) too. While Labour held the seat quite comfortably, its vote still fell by a couple of points. Labour’s share of the vote has now dropped in every single byelection since the Brexit referendum. From leafy Richmond to windswept Copeland the message has been the same : the party is struggling to hang on to the already diminished band of supporters who backed it in 2015. The party’s problems were, of course, in evidence long before 23 June last year. But the vote to leave the EU has exacerbated them. Labour seems to have decided in recent weeks that its first priority is to stave off the threat from Ukip to its traditional working-class vote, much of which supposedly voted to leave in the EU referendum. But in so doing it seems to have forgotten (or not realised) that most of those who voted Labour in 2015 – including those living in Labour seats in the North and the Midlands – backed remain. The party is thus at greater risk of losing votes to the pro-remain Liberal Democrats than to pro-Brexit Ukip. And the Liberal Democrats edged up in both Stoke and Copeland, just as they have done in every byelection since the EU referendum. Ukip itself shares this misapprehension about the importance of the Labour leave vote. Hardly anyone who voted remain is willing to vote for Ukip. Yet it insists on targeting a Labour vote that voted by two to one to remain rather than a Conservative vote where well over half voted to leave. The seeds of Paul Nuttall’s failure to win Stoke, or indeed to register anything more than a two-point increase in the party’s share of the vote, almost undoubtedly lie in his failure to squeeze what will almost undoubtedly have been a predominantly leave-inclined Conservative vote in Stoke. Meanwhile Ukip did see its own vote badly squeezed in Copeland, suffering a drop of nine points, the party’s worst byelection performance yet in this parliament. Most probably it was the advancing Conservatives who primarily benefited – a stark warning to Ukip that Theresa May’s allegedly hard Brexit could enable her to steal the party’s clothes. On 24 June the Conservatives were in turmoil. Now, seven months on they must be wondering whether it was fortunate after all to have lost the EU referendum.' https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/24/stoke-copeland-labour-remain-richmond-copeland-ukip
  9. Indeed, came back to make the same point myself. Check out the enthusiasm gap! Copeland - largest English constituency in geographical size, extremely rural, long distances to polling stations on crap roads with a big storm happening, Tories in with a chance - 51% turnout Stoke Central - small constituency, city centre, short distances to local neighbourhood polling stations also with big storm, Tories have no chance - 38% turnout The conclusion that all meaningful political debate in England and Wales is happening in the Conservative party looks safer than ever.
  10. A genuinely terrible result for Labour, and helps show that no matter how much people in Britain love the NHS, they will not vote on that and only that at the exclusion of other issues. Labour needs to find an identity they can agree on, and they need to do it quickly.
  11. The Ex-Villa Player thread - Keeping tabs on old Villans

    He couldn't be any worse than what we've got.
  12. Leicester City

    I can't but feel a little bit of whatever dignity English football had left has withered away. Astonishing to announce it the morning after a decent Champions League result.
  13. The Careers/Jobs thread

    I'd do it. You're not a prisoner, if they offer you a cack position when you come back then you can say goodbye and disappear into the sunset with your sexy Washington contact list.
  14. UKIP and their non-racist well informed supporters

    Time to bet on them winning in Stoke? If they were cars, the Labour party would be a clapped-out old banger on bricks, the Tories would be a Rolls-Royce “mowing down the poor”, and Ukip would be a St George’s Cross-adorned tank “fighting for the people”. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, were likened to a bicycle. This is according to a group of 10 Stoke Central residents who voted Labour in the 2015 general election and gathered in a hotel in the constituency to take part in a focus group organised by BritainThinks for the Guardian. The participants were aged between 35 and 55, white and, broadly speaking, from what pollsters refer to as social grades C1 and C2, meaning lower middle class and skilled working class. They are exactly the type of traditional Labour voters Ukip is trying to woo. Of the 10 people invited to share their thoughts, three were clear that they would vote Ukip in Thursday’s byelection. Two said they would vote for Labour reluctantly (“because I always have done”), and only one said they would do so with enthusiasm. The remaining four were undecided, with one saying they were probably more likely to vote Labour than Ukip. As the byelection in Stoke was reaching its final days, the group seemed unsure of what to make of questions surrounding Ukip candidate Paul Nuttall’s disputed claim to have been at Hillsborough on the day of the 1989 disaster and admission that claims on his website that he had lost close friends there were untrue. “There’s no need to say something like that [about Hillsborough] around here,” said John, 48, a bus driver. “This isn’t Liverpool.” They all seemed generally mistrustful of negative reports surrounding the Ukip leader. “I just don’t know what to believe,” said Pete, 35, a team leader. Janet, 50, a factory worker, said the Ukip leader had been treated unfairly by the media and all agreed that he was the candidate they would be most likely to have a pint with. The group was less ambiguous about comments made by the Labour candidate Gareth Snell, who described the panelists on ITV’s Loose Women as “squabbling sour-faced ladies” and a woman on The Apprentice as a “speccy blonde girl”. “He’s the one who says negative comments about women on TV and doesn’t like Janet Street-Porter,” said garage-owner Jamie, 48, when the group was shown a photo of Snell. (Snell described Porter as a “polished turd”.) “You can’t make flippant sexist comments and not have some sort of backlash from it,” said Lisa, a 38-year-old student. Although they agreed that the outcome of the byelection was unlikely to stall what they saw as the decline of the local area (“The Taliban could get in and nothing would change around here,” said Janet), they all agreed that a Ukip win would have an impact on a national level as it would force people to listen to the area’s concerns. Stoke was nicknamed Britain’s Brexit capital last year, when 70% voted to leave the EU. Physiotherapist Jason, 45, who is a fan of Jeremy Corbyn, said the high leave vote came in part because of the high levels of immigration to Stoke, and described the area as “a post-industrial wasteland”. Although, none of the group said they disliked Corbyn, only two people had anything positive to say about him. Lisa was impressed when the Labour leader resisted calls on him to resign last summer. “I thought that showed real strength of character,” she said. Feelings towards Theresa May were generally positive, with some describing her as “British” and “strong”. “She didn’t want us to come out [of the EU], but the country voted for it and she’s doing what she’s got to do,” said Janet. Asked to draw a car that summed up the Labour party, the group produced sketches of clapped-out old bangers, variously on bricks, or in one case with a steering wheel at each end “because they don’t know which way they’re going”. The Tory party was likened to a Rolls-Royce or limousine, with the passengers drinking champagne and “mowing down the poor”. The drawings of vehicles that represented Ukip all included either the St George’s Cross or the union flag – and in one case a union flag on top of a swastika “because I’m not sure what to think of them”. One group drew a tank. “It’s a loud and brash killing machine,” said one man. “Hopefully it gets some results by being a bit more aggressive and doing what the people want and fighting for the people.” https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/22/labour-is-clapped-out-banger-on-bricks-according-to-stoke-focus-group Those descriptions of cars are brilliant! I didn't realise focus groups were so fun.
  15. Ashley Westwood

    Better now?