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HanoiVillan

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HanoiVillan last won the day on June 5

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About HanoiVillan

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  1. General Chat

    Seinfeld might be one for the 'things you don't get' thread.
  2. UKIP and their non-racist well informed supporters

    This idea that 'people become more conservative as they get older' is not uncontroversial in political science. People born in different generations change opinions in different ways and at different rates, and the direction is not always to the right. Some evidence in America suggests that people become 'imprinted' with political beliefs early, and then tend to maintain them throughout their lives. Obviously this is a generational effect, so there will be millions of opposing examples, but different cohorts tend to be pretty consistent in how they vote: I'm not aware of any similar research in the UK, but I'd be interested to see it. One big difference between young people and older people in the UK is the rate of home ownership, and that does seem to make a very large difference in the way people vote: (from Shelter: http://blog.shelter.org.uk/2017/06/housing-and-the-2017-election-what-the-numbers-say/) Essentially, I'm not convinced that 'being old' makes people become Conservative, in a way that can be disentangled from 'becoming a homeowner', 'becoming a shareholder', 'becoming wealthier', or whatever else.
  3. General Election 2017

    It's quite possible you're right. Westminster is famously parochial.
  4. General Election 2017

    That's the national picture for sure, but the national picture can't explain why she lost her majority . . . after all, the Tories increased their share of the vote and got a national vote share Thatcher would have been proud of, but still they lost seats. The issue is that the Tories ended up with an incredibly wasteful map in first-past-the-post terms. They increased their vote significantly in a large number of Leave-voting constituencies, but ended up losing them anyway. Running a surprisingly close second in Sunderland is totally wasted energy in a FPTP system. The constituencies they lost in London and the South are the reason they don't have a majority, and I believe all of those either voted Remain or had a Leave lead of less than 10%. Shorter me: I'm not saying the Tories lost more votes than they gained because of their Brexit stance, but I do think it may be possible that the same stance cost them in the seats that cost them their majority.
  5. General Election 2017

    Maybe Brexit was responsible for losing quite a lot of votes as well - possibly more so than the manifesto or the message.
  6. General Election 2017

    Jenny Chapman was on Radio 4 the other day, and said basically the same thing . . . I don't think what Labour 'want' is particularly confusing (another variant of having their cake and eating it), but that's not to say it's realistic (I don't think it is, at all).
  7. General Election 2017

    I'm actually somewhat impressed that that writer managed to write about a thousand words on why old people are more conservative and absolutely none of them are 'property' or 'house'.
  8. General Election 2017

    To be fair, it doesn't need to be a landslide for it not to be a coalition. Labour gaining circa 60 seats is not beyond the realms of the imaginable.
  9. The Manager thread

    Wasn't Cabaye dreadful last season? I think he's pretty much past his best. But yes, they should at least finish top 10.
  10. General Election 2017

    Yes, as I make clear, I'm not a fan of the policy. However, it is demonstrably not the same as paying MP's to vote for your bills in Parliament.
  11. General Election 2017

    Are you seriously suggesting that any time a politician proposes anything that costs any amount of money, that it constitutes a bribe?
  12. General Election 2017

    No, one was a Corbyn policy, which is not the same thing. As it happens, I don't agree with the policy, but it was (and presumably is) a policy.
  13. General Election 2017

    One of these things is very much not like the other.