18/19 Race for Promotion

[turvontour]

As if we only won one game in that run of Ipswich, Brentford, Reading, Sheff U, Blackburn, Rotherham, Sheff Weds, Bristol City, Preston, Millwall.

 

Average league placing of those clubs is 17^th

 

If we miss out on automatics or playoffs by a couple of points……….it’ll be so frustrating looking back at that.

[S-Platt]

4 hours ago, A'Villan said:

It's a bit premature for any team to think they have an automatic promotion place on lock.

We can only focus on what's ahead of us and at the moment it's taking 3 points from West Brom who are 4 points better placed than us and 5 places higher in the standings.

I don't want to get carried away but we have been impressive so far under Smith and look like one of the competitions best teams. There's a long way to go but should our form and performances continue as they have been, there's not going to be too many other teams in the league who can match us, on the day or on the points tally.

There's no guarantees though and with over half the season to be played there's much to be done. I think the run between now and first week of January will be a good indicator of how capable we are of picking up the points necessary to make up the ground between us and the top 2.

 

The form thing is interesting to me at the moment we have a number of players on top form.  As we know you can lose form quickly but what I see with us is a decent replacement should anyone lose form.  Well in Midfield and Attack at least!!

The defence is where we have issues in personnel so I think this is where Deano will strengthen in Jan.

Having Kodija, Hogan, Adomah and Davies as back up to Tammy, Bolasie and El Ghazi is what should fire us up the league.

There are not many teams that will cause us enough problems that we can't outscore.

WBA Friday are possibly the only other team with that sort of back up.

It is going to be a fun ride and we have our part to play as fans.  The feel good factor has returned we just need to roar them home to the promise land!

[BOF]

5 hours ago, villalad21 said:

I just feel it's a bit early to talk about automatic promotion just yet, let's try and focus getting into the top 6 first and then let's take it from there.

You're mixing up what our aims should be with what you think we'll achieve.  The AIM should (always) be automatic promotion.  And as for it being too early.  We're in the thick of the season.  The points count no matter when you get them (or drop them).  If we're not thinking right now about where we'll end up, then it'll be too late to think about it whenever you decide it's time.

[MarkLillis]

We lost at QPR in a game where we performed very well and should have won.

As already pointed out by others Forest scored with the 5 shots they had on target to earn a draw.

If you ask me other teams are lucky that we are not 3rd and serious contenders already  UTV

[Mark Albrighton]

Eleven to thirteen points from the remainder of this month would be very much welcomed.

Looking ahead, I think it was @TROwho said that we can at most drop about a further 20 points across the rest of the season if we want to get to around 85 points. To put that into context, we dropped 21 points in our first 12 games this season. 

That’s going to be bloody tough going, but now I’m looking at our matches with a realistic view to winning the majority of them. Looking at the individual remaining matches, 18 wins from 26 games actually looks plausible to me.

But first things first, another away win against a promotion rival on Friday will be a big step forwards. As keeps being said, this month will be the most telling.

Edited December 5, 2018 by Shropshire Lad

[A'Villan]

23 minutes ago, S-Platt said:

The form thing is interesting to me at the moment we have a number of players on top form.  As we know you can lose form quickly but what I see with us is a decent replacement should anyone lose form.  Well in Midfield and Attack at least!!

The defence is where we have issues in personnel so I think this is where Deano will strengthen in Jan.

Having Kodija, Hogan, Adomah and Davies as back up to Tammy, Bolasie and El Ghazi is what should fire us up the league.

There are not many teams that will cause us enough problems that we can't outscore.

WBA Friday are possibly the only other team with that sort of back up.

It is going to be a fun ride and we have our part to play as fans.  The feel good factor has returned we just need to roar them home to the promise land!

I believe our run of form is due to Smith having the team play with purpose and ambition. We're prepared for each fixture and play with a hunger to see that it's played on our terms.

We were never going to get promoted on the basis that Steve Bruce had four promotions to his name or because the players we signed had performed well previously.

Promotion will come from hard work and appropriate tactics in the here and now. From having players buy into the coaches setup and being motivated to perform from one fixture to the next in order to give us the best chance of victory in each.

As for selection I think we have seen glimpses of brilliance from across the squad and have top quality players throughout, Smith seems to be getting the best out of them all.

"You're only as good as your last performance"

I doubt there will be any resting on our laurels under Smith and the above will probably be an apt motto for the season ahead.

[villan-scott]

2 hours ago, turvontour said:

As if we only won one game in that run of Ipswich, Brentford, Reading, Sheff U, Blackburn, Rotherham, Sheff Weds, Bristol City, Preston, Millwall.

 

Average league placing of those clubs is 17^th

 

If we miss out on automatics or playoffs by a couple of points……….it’ll be so frustrating looking back at that.

That’s just criminal isn’t it. So poor to not have picked up more points here. They should have pulled the trigger sooner, in the last international break.

I’m just glad Smith is here now, and we seem to be taking the league by storm. 

[romavillan]

58 minutes ago, Shropshire Lad said:

Eleven to thirteen points from the remainder of the this month would be very much welcomed.

Looking ahead, I think it was @TROwho said that we can at most drop about a further 20 points across the rest of the season if we want to get to around 85 points. To put that into context, we dropped 21 points in our first 12 games this season. 

That’s going to be bloody tough going, but now I’m looking at our matches with a realistic view to winning the majority of them. Looking at the individual remaining matches, 18 wins from 26 games actually looks plausible to me.

But first things first, another away win against a promotion rival on Friday will be a big step forwards. As keeps being said, this month will be the most telling.

Yeah, as good as we've suddenly become (@A'Villan's stats somewhere underline just how good), to achieve the aim of top two we need to win most times we play from here on in. I'm not saying it's impossible because the dramatic change from hopeless strangers bumbling around to an actual ball playing dangerous attacking entertaining (very) football team has been achieved whilst playing the best teams in this division. Dropping points on friday won't be the end of the world as IF we can keep up the current levels we'll blitz through everyone but the top sides down here. Problem is we're starting with a big handicap points wise so keeping the same from up as the top 2 is no guarantee we'll break into the top 2. We're relying on the teams above us to not maintain that kind of form whilst we do consistently. Not easy at all, but why not? Strengthen further in Jan and give Smith some room to rotate and we'll be better placed to handle the 3 games a week schedule too. 

[Don_Simon]

2 hours ago, S-Platt said:

The form thing is interesting to me at the moment we have a number of players on top form.  As we know you can lose form quickly but what I see with us is a decent replacement should anyone lose form.  Well in Midfield and Attack at least!!

The defence is where we have issues in personnel so I think this is where Deano will strengthen in Jan.

Having Kodija, Hogan, Adomah and Davies as back up to Tammy, Bolasie and El Ghazi is what should fire us up the league.

There are not many teams that will cause us enough problems that we can't outscore.

WBA Friday are possibly the only other team with that sort of back up.

It is going to be a fun ride and we have our part to play as fans.  The feel good factor has returned we just need to roar them home to the promise land!

Tammy, Axel, McGinniesta.

I can't think of anyone else on top form. Truth be told, I think we're currently in third gear, with a lot more to come.

[Junxs]

8 hours ago, villalad21 said:

Alot also depends on the keeper situation in January, if we are still stuck with Nyland there is no chance in us finishing in the top 2, no chance.

The same Nyland who has kept 4 clean sheets in the last 8 games?

Just as a comparison he's statistically better than Johnstone has been this season, many fans who wanted us to buy in the summer - hes only kept 1 clean sheet all season. Nyland has also made more saves per game than him.

I'm not saying Nyalnd is the best keeper in the world, but he's certainly better than most Villa fans give him credit for, especially since Dean Smith took over his record has been outstanding. Took a hell of a lot of stick for the Forest game but I honestly don't think his performance was that bad in that game, possibly could have done more with the 5th goal that deflected past him at the near post but it wasnt a howler.

If we don't replace him in January theres no evidence of what you claim that we cant finish in the top 2 with him for the rest of the season. If we continue in the same form we'll make it easily - and Nyland has been a part of that team in the last 8 games so it doesnt make sense what you say. 

[villalad21]

5 minutes ago, Junxs said:

The same Nyland who has kept 4 clean sheets in the last 8 games?

Just as a comparison he's statistically better than Johnstone has been this season, many fans who wanted us to buy in the summer - hes only kept 1 clean sheet all season. Nyland has also made more saves per game than him.

I'm not saying Nyalnd is the best keeper in the world, but he's certainly better than most Villa fans give him credit for, especially since Dean Smith took over his record has been outstanding. Took a hell of a lot of stick for the Forest game but I honestly don't think his performance was that bad in that game, possibly could have done more with the 5th goal that deflected past him at the near post but it wasnt a howler.

If we don't replace him in January theres no evidence of what you claim that we cant finish in the top 2 with him for the rest of the season. If we continue in the same form we'll make it easily - and Nyland has been a part of that team in the last 8 games so it doesnt make sense what you say. 

He's 27 and still have no idea how to command an area on set pieces...

That's actually pathetic for a keeper. Especially in this league. Yeah he's a decent shot stopper but it's expected more from a keeper in this league.

[Junxs]

12 minutes ago, villalad21 said:

He's 27 and still have no idea how to command an area on set pieces...

That's actually pathetic for a keeper. Especially in this league. Yeah he's a decent shot stopper but it's expected more from a keeper in this league.

We're obviously seeing different things, I thought he was coming out and taking catches quite well in recent games, especially since Smith has been here.

Granted he made some howlers earlier in the season, but I think that is clouding peoples judgement on how he is performing now. Some people have already made up their mind he is shit and refuse to believe otherwise

[Demitri_C]

15 minutes ago, Junxs said:

We're obviously seeing different things, I thought he was coming out and taking catches quite well in recent games, especially since Smith has been here.

Granted he made some howlers earlier in the season, but I think that is clouding peoples judgement on how he is performing now. Some people have already made up their mind he is shit and refuse to believe otherwise

Commanding? That is one thing nyland is certainly not. He is terrible at corners hardly gets near the ball does not communicate with his defenders either.

He is poor very poor. I for one am not willing to run the risk of sticking with him when we have a  real chance of going up this year.

[A'Villan]

5 minutes ago, Junxs said:

We're obviously seeing different things, I thought he was coming out and taking catches quite well in recent games, especially since Smith has been here.

Granted he made some howlers earlier in the season, but I think that is clouding peoples judgement on how he is performing now. Some people have already made up their mind he is shit and refuse to believe otherwise

His distribution is fine as well. He passed it out 30 times against Derby and only twice did it not reach a Villa player successfully, both passes were long balls.

I generally agree with what you're saying, though he still has an error in him. Grabban's goal was a tame effort that never should have made it between Nyland and the near post.

[Junxs]

3 minutes ago, A'Villan said:

His distribution is fine as well. He passed it out 30 times against Derby and only twice did it not reach a Villa player successfully, both passes were long balls.

I generally agree with what you're saying, though he still has an error in him. Grabban's goal was a tame effort that never should have made it between Nyland and the near post.

Yeah that's fine, I agree with that too. I'm not saying he's amazing. Just trying to point out he isn't as bad as some think. 

I too think Heaton would be an upgrade, but it wouldn't bother me that much if Nyland is our keeper for the rest of the season. Every 'keeper has a bad game now and then, even the best in the world, but it seems Nyland is not even allowed an average one.

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

41 minutes ago, Junxs said:

Yeah that's fine, I agree with that too. I'm not saying he's amazing. Just trying to point out he isn't as bad as some think. 

I too think Heaton would be an upgrade, but it wouldn't bother me that much if Nyland is our keeper for the rest of the season. Every 'keeper has a bad game now and then, even the best in the world, but it seems Nyland is not even allowed an average one.

Go to agree with you and say he has definitely been better.

He also did come out for catches more.

However it seems he is now stuck with a stigma so even when he is decent he will get slated.

As to be fair the nervousness when the ball is coming to him is still there.

This will only subside with a run of solid performances.

[A'Villan]

3 hours ago, Junxs said:

Yeah that's fine, I agree with that too. I'm not saying he's amazing. Just trying to point out he isn't as bad as some think. 

I too think Heaton would be an upgrade, but it wouldn't bother me that much if Nyland is our keeper for the rest of the season. Every 'keeper has a bad game now and then, even the best in the world, but it seems Nyland is not even allowed an average one.

I've never been a goalkeeper but I imagine the distance between posts can seem difficult to cover and lonely when the team you are playing for is conceding chances and you yourself are low on confidence after making a poor start to your career at a new club. The new goalkeeping coach seemed to have genuine confidence that the work he and Nyland have put in will see Nyland become the goalkeeper we need him to be at this level. Hopefully that's the case from here on in. His distribution is excellent at times and plays a role in how we transition into attack.

Errors like the one he made for Grabban's goal are costly though and he can't have those types of blunders every match or we will drop points that we otherwise could have gained like we did by conceding that 5th goal to Forest. It won't matter if he spends the majority of a game doing his job well if it all comes unstuck with a mistake that costs us each week.

I also won't be bothered if Nyland sees out the season as I believe we can gain promotion with what we have unless a CB goes down to injury.

As for the supporters creating a stigma and being on Nyland's back, I think every player is under pressure to perform and produce the goods. We have one of if not the best player in the league in Grealish and yet there has been significant commentary on his poor start this season and his lack of goals and assists, it's only now that results and team performances are coming along in our favour that we see people relent from voicing their frustration.

It's so encouraging to have a coach who understands the game and can implement tactics that are effective in getting the most out of our players efforts and ability. With the exception of Jedinak I think every player looks a lot better under Smith's stewardship because of the roles they have to play in order to fulfill the targets of the team.

We're only 8 games in to his tenure but I can see us establishing ourselves as a consistent threat under Smith. Leeds are the only team who have been consistent and dominant enough in their games to make me think that they have what it takes to be a top 2 side in the division and as far as I'm concerned the other place belongs to us, even though it'll be a big achievement to make up the gap that's been created by us dropping points under Bruce.

[Dave-R]

7 hours ago, MarkLillis said:

We lost at QPR in a game where we performed very well and should have won.

As already pointed out by others Forest scored with the 5 shots they had on target to earn a draw.

If you ask me other teams are lucky that we are not 3rd and serious contenders already  UTV

That 5-5 scoreline was a crazy freakish game, but we should of won it still, a number of us on VillaTalk had noticed one of the last forest goals our keeper had in fact been dragged down by a forest players (its in the highlights). That One goal is the one goal that the ref or linesman should of spotted and disallowed it yet got in completely wrong, we would of won 5-4 and should of done.

I think we would be in top spot if we had of got Dean in earlyier, I do hope that is not the decider in what takes us back to the premiere or keeping us in the championship for another season. I'll go nuts if we don't go up and it's all because we held onto Dinosaur-Bronto Bruce for too long, I'll be very upset I think.

I think with the way were playing now, the other clubs will mess up more than what we do, we are stronger and seem to be more relaxed now, we know what we're doing and Deano has us playing some exciting and tactful football.

We will be strengthened in January, but the other clubs are going to be looking at bringing in there own promotion firing players in as well. Wouldn't surprise me if we see alot more loaners coming out of the premiere, that's why I don't want anyone landing Odoi from Chelsea or any of there other players other than us.

It's a damn shame Terry doesn't want to come and put the boots on and have some games for us in defence. I'm very surprised he's not threw his name in the hat on that one already considering he knows were short. If we do get promotion, he will at least feel he's been apart of what didn't happen for him at villa last season, another reason why he's here I bet not just to get experience from Dean Smith. I think Dean wanted Terry at villa for a few reasons, experience shadowing Smith, help sort out the defence, be apart of a promotion winning team and because he has reputation with Chelsea with any transactions that take place.

[tinker]

Football and it's fans are fickle, win and everything and everyone is great , lose and everything and everyone is poor. Smith brings believe and with our squad that's all we should need. 

Nyland was in a difficult position from day one , we had a record of iffy keepers then Johnston landed and seemed to be  the answer only for finances to take him away.

If Nyland can hold his nerve for a few games ,3-4, and not cost us then what he has gone though should make him stronger mentally, that's what makes a good keeper. He needs to perform or drop down a level. Fingers crossed he comes through 

[Hornso]

2016/17 - 28 points | 2017/18 - 36 points | 2018/19 - 31 points

After 25 games - 2016/17 - 35 points | 2017/18 - 41 points | 2018/19 - ?

Edited December 5, 2018 by Hornso
Added info for 25 games from previous seasons