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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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4 hours ago, Keyblade said:

I'd much rather face Sheffield United in the semis than finish 5th and face West Brom. I'm sure we can still take them at a packed VP with Jack and John on form, but maybe the game at VP left a sour taste, and we'd never hear the end of it from those small time yo-yo strings in the black country if we lose.

But, imagine the fun if we won. :) I would be over the moon if we made the play offs, if we did I would guess that any side that faced us would not fancy it either. Bring them on! Bring any of them on! ;)  

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51 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Axel RB, Chester , Mings, Hause LB is our best bet IMO.

If we learnt anything under Bruce's tenure is that we should never play Axel at RB. He really undermined our attacking play when playing there imo. He's a CB. RB should be Elmo and definitely not Hutton.

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Bristol City have a game in hand.. does anyone know who it's against?

If its like Leeds, Norwich or Shef Utd its almost worth not counting it as a game in hand, but if its Rotherham, Bolton etc then it will feel more like we are 4 points away rather than 2 as it stands.

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22 minutes ago, Junxs said:

Bristol City have a game in hand.. does anyone know who it's against?

If its like Leeds, Norwich or Shef Utd its almost worth not counting it as a game in hand, but if its Rotherham, Bolton etc then it will feel more like we are 4 points away rather than 2 as it stands.

Presumably it's against either Swansea or Millwall seen as they are playing fa cup this weekend and Bristol city sitting it out.

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28 minutes ago, Junxs said:

Bristol City have a game in hand.. does anyone know who it's against?

If its like Leeds, Norwich or Shef Utd its almost worth not counting it as a game in hand, but if its Rotherham, Bolton etc then it will feel more like we are 4 points away rather than 2 as it stands.

Well they’re playing Boro away on 2nd April (midweek game) and we’re only playing at the weekends that week, so I guess it’s that one.

A draw would be great there, but either way someone will be losing points that day.

Edited by Shropshire Lad
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4 minutes ago, Johnnyp said:

Presumably it's against either Swansea or Millwall seen as they are playing fa cup this weekend and Bristol city sitting it out.

No that's this coming weekend after which they will have 2 games in hand. I was talking about their original game in hand

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2 minutes ago, Shropshire Lad said:

Well they’re playing Boro away on 2nd April and we don’t have a game that day, so I guess it’s that one.

A draw would be great there, but either way someone will be losing points that day.

Ah ok, thanks. That's good as at least one of them will be dropping points!

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On 03/03/2019 at 01:57, KentVillan said:

UPDATED!

  • 6. Derby County.........P 37 Pts 56 GD  +2
  • 7. Bristol City.........P 36 Pts 55 GD  +7
  • 8. Aston Villa..........P 37 Pts 54 GD +11
  • 9. Preston North End....P 37 Pts 54 GD  +7
  • 10. Nottingham Forest...P 37 Pts 53 GD  +8
  • 11. Sheffield Wednesday.P 37 Pts 52 GD  -5

Fixtures (I've marked in red any team that were above Villa when I first did this):

  • Derby County: ROT (H), BRE (A), BLA (A), BOL (H), BIR (A), QPR (H), BRI (A), SWA (A), WBA (H)
  • Bristol City: SHU (A), MID (A), WIG (H), WBA (H), AST (A), REA (H), SHW (A), DER (H), MIL (A), HUL (A)
  • Aston Villa: MID (H), BLA (H), SHW (A), ROT (A), BRI (H), BOL (A), MIL (H), LEE (A), NOR (H)
  • Preston: BIR (H), REA (A), SHU (H), LEE (H), WBA (A), IPS (H), WIG (A), SHW (H), BRE (A)
  • Nott Forest: IPS (A), SWA (H), ROT (A), SHW (A), BLA (H), SHU (A), MID (H), QPR (A), BOL (H)
  • Shef Wed: BLA (H), STO (A), AST (H), NOT (H), LEE (A), NOR (A), BRI (H), PRE (A), QPR (H)

Updated race and fixtures. I can't see Wednesday doing it with -5 goal difference and that string of fixtures. They could definitely take points off us, though.

Bookies odds shortening massively again (top 6 finish on Betfair Market):

  • Bristol 7/5
  • Villa 19/10
  • Derby 12/5

Factoring in bookies' margin, that's putting us on about 30-35% chance of 6th place I reckon. I actually think Bristol are overpriced because they have so many nasty fixtures, and am more worried about Derby, despite their form.

Edited by KentVillan
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Im confident we'll finish above Bristol and Boro and really, so we should. Boro next. At Villa Park, without their best defender and considering we wiped the floor with them up there, I'd be very disappointed with anything less than 3 points.

The playoffs beckon...

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Thats why it was important when I mentioned Boro to lose points. Which has been the case of the last couple of games. As it stands, we’re maximum 4 points to 6th (if Bristol win at Boro). But at the same time 4 points to 5th which is Boro. While if Boro win it will stay 2 points to 6th Derby with a 7 points gap to 5th.

If we could win against Middlesbrough that would be huge as it would put us 6th with one point behind 5th. Ofcourse games on hand for Derby and Bristol. Assuming they win. 5th will still be on 4 points at anycase.

I think we must look out on Preston and Brentford. These teams are dangerous. They will be favorites potentially, if Bristol and Derby kept losing points which I think would be the case. We will still have to play Bristol at home so hopefully thats an advantage for us.

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Form is interesting.

Bristol City have not won in 5 games, losing 3 of them

Derby have only won one in 5 with 2 losses and 2 draws

Middlesboro have lost their last 2 and not won in 3

We've won 3 in a row :) make it 4 and we're one point behind 'boro which is pretty amazing given where we were a couple of weeks ago.

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Its better to carry momentum into the playoffs than reach for the top, stagnate a bit and flounder, like we did last year to a degree. We look like building some.

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56 minutes ago, holteend1982 said:

Bristol will have 2 games in hand over us after Saturday, against boro (A) and Millwall (A) 

Could do with them drawing to boro and losing to Milwall.

edit: the April fixture list is horrendous so it will be interesting to see how Bristol cope with even more games!

they’ve got 9 games in a month. 

Edited by Vive_La_Villa
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