Premier League relegation battle 2022/3

[The_Steve]

Leeds sacked their DoF too 

[Mark Albrighton]

26 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

This is pure cargo cult antics, kind of like Incas doing a human sacrifice to get better weather for their crops. There are 4 games left; in total there might be 15 or 20 training sessions max? There's no window. The defence are shite. He doesn't know any of the players. 

I mean, maybe it will work, but it won't work *because it worked*. 

That’s one side of it.

The other side though, which I believe is the main reasoning by the Leeds board for the appointment, think of the banter him rocking up to Newcastle AND to West Ham in the coming weeks.

The banter, HV, the banter.

[AshVilla]

13 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Pretty much a straight shootout then, though Everton have a one-point handicap and Forest have a goal-difference handicap:

Leicester - ful / LIV / new / WHU

Leeds - mci / NEW / whu / TOT

Forest - SOU / che / ARS / pal

Everton - bri / MCI / wol / BOU

No more games against each other. Very hard to predict really: the round after next you'd have to expect all of them to get 0 points so the next round is key if Leicester or Forest can get something. 

I'd expect Forest to get 3 points against Chelsea.

Probably their easiest fixture remaining.

[brummybloke]

Leeds Leicester Everton is still the dream.

Southampton are realistically down but one can dream as it won't be wolves or wet spam ( the ones I really wanted to go)

[PieFacE]

Southampton look dead and buried

Can't see Everton getting out of it now

Then the last place i'm unsure, hopefully Leeds

[PaulC]

11 minutes ago, PieFacE said:

Southampton look dead and buried

Can't see Everton getting out of it now

Then the last place i'm unsure, hopefully Leeds

Last two games Wolves away and Bournemouth at home. Both teams with nothing to play for. I think there chances have improved since last night even if they are still in the bottom three 

[Pinebro]

19 minutes ago, PieFacE said:

Southampton look dead and buried

Can't see Everton getting out of it now

Then the last place i'm unsure, hopefully Leeds

They only need one win and they'd be right back in it.

Probably need 7-9 points though and witha run in of Forest, Fulham, Brighton and Liverpool it's not looking good.

Beat Forest and Fulham though and it's gonna be interesting for sure.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Pinebro

[HanoiVillan]

41 minutes ago, AshVilla said:

I'd expect Forest to get 3 points against Chelsea.

Probably their easiest fixture remaining.

Maybe, but on the other hand they've only got 6 points on the road all season. 

[Nigel]

33 minutes ago, PieFacE said:

 

Can't see Everton getting out of it now

 

Don't know about that, those last 2 games look picture perfect for them to escape.

Cant see Leeds doing the same or forest unfortunately (for forest)

[bobzy]

15 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Pretty much a straight shootout then, though Everton have a one-point handicap and Forest have a goal-difference handicap:

Leicester - ful / LIV / new / WHU

Leeds - mci / NEW / whu / TOT

Forest - SOU / che / ARS / pal

Everton - bri / MCI / wol / BOU

No more games against each other. Very hard to predict really: the round after next you'd have to expect all of them to get 0 points so the next round is key if Leicester or Forest can get something. 

Yeah, that's incredibly tough to call.  Nice for Everton to have Bournemouth at home as the last game of the season - that's an advantage for them.  Similar for Leicester with West Ham and Forest at Palace, although those should be tougher games than Everton's one.

Each team has such obvious deficiencies which makes it tough to call.  If I was to have a stab...

 

...with the way they ship goals and the run they have, I think Leeds need a minor miracle to survive.  Leicester have a marginally kinder run in than the others and should have too much attacking force to lose every game.  Toss up between Everton and Forest for the other spot.  Forest possibly with a slight advantage as they've found some sort of goal scoring form but you feel they need to beat Southampton.  Southampton, Leeds and Everton to go down, but so hard to call.  It's been a great season in terms of the relegation battle.

Edited May 2, 2023 by bobzy

[blandy]

On 30/04/2023 at 17:47, Zatman said:

2 years ago you would have stayed up with 30 points but fourth bottom had 39

That doesn’t make sense.

[HanoiVillan]

8 minutes ago, blandy said:

That doesn’t make sense.

4th bottom had 39, but they could have had as low as 30 and still finished 4th bottom. 

(I know it doesn't work exactly like that as if they had 9 fewer points those would be distributed elsewhere in the league, but if we imagine they didn't go to any of the bottom 3 ...)

[blandy]

1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

4th bottom had 39, but they could have had as low as 30 and still finished 4th bottom. 

(I know it doesn't work exactly like that as if they had 9 fewer points those would be distributed elsewhere in the league, but if we imagine they didn't go to any of the bottom 3 ...)

Thanks. You’re right it doesn’t work like that. If 4th bottom had 39, then in order to stay up you’d have needed 39 and a better goal difference or same GD and more goals for, in order to push them into the bottom 3

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

Thanks. You’re right it doesn’t work like that. If 4th bottom had 39, then in order to stay up you’d have needed 39 and a better goal difference or same GD and more goals for, in order to push them into the bottom 3

I suppose it's a question of whose perspective you're adopting isn't it. If you are thinking about it from the perspective of the team with 39 points (which was Burnley, as it happens) then they didn't *need* those extra 9 points.

If you're thinking about it from the perspective of not-Burnley, then yes you would have needed 40 points (or 39 and a -21 goal difference or better) to survive. 

[It's Your Round]

It’s a fascinating relegation scrap this year, made all the more fun because Villa are nowhere near it. Long may that continue!

[StewieGriffin]

Tough to see Leicester staying up with those fixtures, and Leeds look in tatters

[S-Platt]

I know we all want teams to go down or stay up with differing opinions on why.

My question above the hatred or love of manager is this.

Who would be a challenger with us if they survive?

Leeds, Forest and Everton survive for me they would still be shit next year.

Leicester however have massively underachieved have some good players a good set up with training ground and so on.  I love Deano but if they did drop in the longer term that is better for us personally.

I am assuming Southampton are down and West Ham and above safe.

 

[ender4]

1 hour ago, S-Platt said:

I know we all want teams to go down or stay up with differing opinions on why.

My question above the hatred or love of manager is this.

Who would be a challenger with us if they survive?

Leeds, Forest and Everton survive for me they would still be shit next year.

Leicester however have massively underachieved have some good players a good set up with training ground and so on.  I love Deano but if they did drop in the longer term that is better for us personally.

I am assuming Southampton are down and West Ham and above safe.

 

Everton will come back up the league if they stay up. They have the big new corporate stadium opening in 18 months time, and a decent revenue base already.

[VILLAMARV]

Dyche has been doing very Dychey things results wise with Everton. 3 wins 5 draws and 6 defeats so far and Brighton and Man C arent easy games in the next 2 but Wolves away and Bournemouth last day dont look unwinnable. flip side of that is he hasnt won away yet either so that Wolves game aint a gimme. Beaten Arsenal, Leeds and Brentford though and drawn against Forest, Leicester, Palace, Spurs and Chelsea. But I can see it going to the last day for them. Their form, compared to the rest down there, is not that bad.

Southampton are surely gone now after the loss against Bournemouth. They simply need to win against Forest and Fulham in the next 2 to have any hope at all. Brighton and Liverpool await further down the line

It's difficult to see Leeds picking up any points really, though the roll of the dice with Allardyce means theres a random factor. ManC, Newcastle, West Ham and Spurs though, not easy on paper.

Forest are in awful form. but on paper perhaps the easier run in. Palace last day, Southampton next up and Chelsea and Arsenal in between. 1win and 2 draws in the last 10 though.

Leicester might just have turned the corner at the right time under Deano. 5 points from the last 3 games. Fulham, Liverpool, Newcastle, West Ham though. Like the rest, a tough run-in.

And I can't rule W.Ham out of it. They are having a crazy season. 2 semi final games to add in the mix too. after man u and brentford. Leeds and Leicester in the last 2 look like real 6 pointers to me.

Be nice if Everton + Soton could take some points off Brighton or Leeds against Spurs

Forest, Southampton and Leicester could really do with a win this weekend

[useless]

When Smith was appointed at Leicester looking at the fixtures I thought they had an excellent chance of staying up, but having falied to win some of those winnable games like at home against both Leeds and Everton and now looking like they're going to fail to beat Fulham, things look a lot more difficult now.