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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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Beat Rotherham now and we'll be really turning the screw before we meet Bristol City. Them and Derby could drop points in the week, City have Albion and Derby have Blackburn away. Not 3 point gifts either of those games.

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21 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

You still theoretically have the upper hand, if you keep winning yourselves.

Well........ if they Win every game they are in the Play Offs...but if we Win every game, we are....so it’s neck and neck.

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10 hours ago, Kingman said:

No mate, Bristol are at Millwall and Derby are at Swansea. 

In terms of the dates, yes.

But that’s irrelevant.

What is very relevant is that you can effectively say that the game in hand IS the one where they play each other.....therefore they have not BOTH got potentially 3 points on us. Only one has, and it might even be just one point each.

This could be absolutely critical !

Edited by terrytini
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To illustrate.

Because Derby and Bristol ar3 still to play each other ( doesn’t matter when) the true League Table at the moment can only be one of these three

Bristol Win                                                                Draw                                            Derby Win

5th      Bristol Played 40 Points 65                       Villa P 40 Pts 63                       Villa P 40 Pts 63

6th.      Villa Played 40 Points 63                           Bristol P40 Pts 63                    Derby P 40 Pts 63

7th.       Derby Played 40 Points 60.                       Derby P 40 Pts 61.                    Bristol P 40 Pts 62

Whichever way it goes we are in the Play Offs as long as we do our part.

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4 hours ago, Nigel said:

Lets see how the Baggies react to this loss now they have no proper manager.

Should Bristol get anything from them mid-week things could interesting!

The best result for us is an Albion win. 

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5 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

How many points do you think will be required for a playoff spot?

73 would seem to give you a shout, 74 would I think make you a safe bet. Would 72 be enough?

 

10 more. Wins v Rotherham, Bolton and Millwall and avoid defeat to Bristol City. Would mean Derby and Bristol would have to get to 74 points despite playing each other in the run in. Both also have significantly poorer GDs than us.

If it is required I can see us having a 90 minute kick around v Norwich to secure a point.

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19 minutes ago, terrytini said:

To illustrate.

Because Derby and Bristol ar3 still to play each other ( doesn’t matter when) the true League Table at the moment can only be one of these three

Bristol Win                                                                Draw                                            Derby Win

5th      Bristol Played 40 Points 65                       Villa P 40 Pts 63                       Villa P 40 Pts 63

6th.      Villa Played 40 Points 63                           Bristol P40 Pts 63                    Derby P 40 Pts 63

7th.       Derby Played 40 Points 60.                       Derby P 40 Pts 61.                    Bristol P 40 Pts 62

Whichever way it goes we are in the Play Offs as long as we do our part.

I was originally thinking a draw or a Derby win would be the best outcome, but a Bristol win leaves us the most amount of points (3) clear of 7th. Mixed feelings about their game result now but the most important thing is finishing in a playoff place is currently in our hands.

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31 minutes ago, brommy said:

I was originally thinking a draw or a Derby win would be the best outcome, but a Bristol win leaves us the most amount of points (3) clear of 7th. Mixed feelings about their game result now but the most important thing is finishing in a playoff place is currently in our hands.

Yes, we have to want whatever gives us room to slip up.  That result allows us to lose a game and remain in the play offs.  Anything else sees someone able to overtake us if we lose. 

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37 minutes ago, brommy said:

I was originally thinking a draw or a Derby win would be the best outcome, but a Bristol win leaves us the most amount of points (3) clear of 7th. Mixed feelings about their game result now but the most important thing is finishing in a playoff place is currently in our hands.

Agree this is the best outcome as long we beat Bristol too. 

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1 hour ago, terrytini said:

Well........ if they Win every game they are in the Play Offs...but if we Win every game, we are....so it’s neck and neck.

If Derby win every games they are in the playoffs too. 

As it stands all three teams currently have their fate in their own hands.  

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2 hours ago, brommy said:

I was originally thinking a draw or a Derby win would be the best outcome, but a Bristol win leaves us the most amount of points (3) clear of 7th. Mixed feelings about their game result now but the most important thing is finishing in a playoff place is currently in our hands.

If we beat Bristol, we'd be a point ahead of them by the time they win too. We're really in the driving seat.

Basically, as long as we beat Bristol...we simply have to match their results (with a 1 point margin for error), and 5th place is ours (unless those results are terrible and Derby goes on a good run :P ).

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Bristol vs Derby is their respective 3rd last game (when we play Leeds), so...

1) probably our toughest game is the same weekend one (or both) of them drop points. Its also afterwards now the Leeds game is on the Sunday

2) Bristol and Derby wont be able to both win their last 3 games (games in hand are the midweek between the last 2 weekends of the season...

If we can get 4-6 points ahead before the Leeds game, we'll be in. Looking at the fixtures, you'd back that if we don't lose to Bristol

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15 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

The best result for us is an Albion win. 

You're probably right but I also feel that West Brom might stumble through to the playoffs and we will be on similar points come the end of the season despite the current gap. 

 

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