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brommy

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  1. Possibly, Still close enough for it not to be the end of it.
  2. Such close control that it takes a very confident opponent to tackle him within 25 to 30 yards of goal.
  3. I genuinely think the UK government are relying on no extension to force an agreement of the deal. I can’t see Parliament not voting for the deal if the only alternatives are no deal on the 31st or revoking.
  4. Understandably cautious. Unfortunately, knowing that the result would be close either way (<10% difference), division within the UK will still be massive. I suspect only a 2 to 1 majority would be enough for the minority to very begrudgingly accept. See the SNP.
  5. Fair enough, after all we’re just guessing about the result of a 3 option referendum that will not be offered. In support of my guessing, the vast majority of those I know who voted leave did so in the belief it would be ‘easy’ via a deal (no matter how hard the deal was to agree). Just to add - it’s interesting to see we both think 45% remain and we only differ in the split between deal and no-deal.
  6. Interesting. Had ether of them previously declared they would back the deal; that is, is it a genuine change of mind?
  7. I think most, although far from all, leavers voted so on the belief there would be a deal. Now the disruption of a no-deal has been widely reported and not always been held up as project fear, I don’t think the no deal first choice vote would exceed 20%. My guess would be approximately: Remain 45%, Deal 40%, No deal 15%. Based on that guess, after counting second preferences, it would be a very close result between remain and leave with a deal, nudging toward leaving with the deal. Still way too close to be confident in any result.
  8. The original referendum gave the public an option that will reduce GDP (at least in the short and medium term), so I don’t think a second referendum should deny any option just because it is detrimental to the economy. Despite concern regarding the intelligence of the general public, I’d be confident that the no deal option would receive the least amount of votes. After counting second preferences, I think the remain and leave with a deal vote would be close. A 3 option referendum with transferable second preferences will never be offered but that won’t stop me thinking it’s the fairest.
  9. If the leave deal/no deal voters second choices were transferred to no deal/deal, it wouldn’t split the leave vote. When a >50% majority is reached on counting second preferences, the result stands. At least the voters would know what the deal was they were voting on, unlike last time. I’m not confident those remainers who think a second referendum will give them the result they prefer. The numbers who now think the deal is not for them could be exceeded by those remainers who think we should honour the original result.
  10. I’d like a referendum counting first, second and third choice between remain, leave with the government/EU deal and leave with no deal.
  11. Essentially a straight vote - Revoke vs Deal. Probably never going to happen but what would win in Parliament?
  12. Whether Parliament agrees or doesn’t agree the current deal, my understanding is, if the EU refuse an extension, the UK has no choice but to leave at 23:00 GMT on 31st October. Faced with leaving without a deal, it would force Parliament to pass the withdrawal agreement; although I’d prefer if someone could tell me why I’m wrong.
  13. Is it feasible that the EU will not grant any extension to force Parliament to agree the deal, for fear of a no deal? Is this why the government seem confident?
  14. This year, Sainsbury have become the first major supermarket to not sell fireworks. The ‘news’ was on BBC radio today, without a statement from Sainsbury’s but with a reference to last year’s petition urging a public sale ban which apparently gained 300k signatures.
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