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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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15 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Boro are on 58 points with 1 game in hand, if they win, they go onto 61 points and leave us on 60, with games played then being even.

Bristol City are on 58 points with 2 games in hand, if they win, obviously they go onto 61 points, overtaking us, STILL with another game in hand. ( This means by the time games are even they could be on 64 points, 4 above us)

If it is a draw, Boro go onto 59 points (1 point behind us, with games played being even), Bristol City then go onto 59 points still with 1 game in hand, meaning when games played are even they could potentially be on 62 points (2 points ahead)

If Boro win, they go onto 61 points, with games played being even (Only 1 point ahead), while Bristol City will remain on 58 points with now only one game in hand, meaning even if they win there next game evening games played the max they get to is 61 points (Only one point ahead)

Table would then be (with hypothetical Boro and hypothetical Bristol City winning game in hand after losing to Boro to even games played)

Boro 61 points 

City 61 points

Villa 60 points

 

A draw would obviously put both on 59 points but ignores Bristol City game in hand which they could easily win putting them on 62 points. (2 points ahead instead of potential 1 with loss to Boro)

I know it is only 1 point difference, however I would prefer to temporarily drop out of the playoff places (Fake placing at current) with all games played even to give us the advantage of pushing them further behind us when we actually play them.

Basically a draw somewhat nullifies Boros threat, but heightens Bristol Citys threat, if that makes any sense. 😕

Obviously, they (Bristol City) preferably lose or draw the games in hand.

I'm just thinking worst case scenarios here.

EDIT: I am also garbage at maths, so apologies if i'm totally wrong.

 

You're not wrong. You could have avoided all of that if you just wrote Boro instead of Bristol in the post I was quoting :P

A draw would be good because it neutralizes both teams but since Im not worried about getting 1 more point than Boro at all, it might just be better if they win, you're right.

Edited by Keyblade
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Boro Bristol draw is best result for us

I think we can beat the Baggies over two legs tbh. Leeds will be tough esp with second leg aT Elland road. In a one off final I think we can beat Leeds as ee have a lot more experienced big game players that can handle the pressure 

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A draw is better.  Look at the math from the standpoint of the number of points being awarded to playoff rivals.   We don't know at this point which of these teams is going to be the biggest threat a month from now, so we want to minimize the total number of points that are won by the entire group of teams we're competing with.  When two of our rivals play each other, a win for either side means a total of 3 points awarded, a draw means a total of 2 points.      

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2 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

I think they will just take the points away from the teams that have played them, meaning we are -3. That said, having looked, it affects pretty much everyone around us in that sense.
Biggest problem is, we would lose a game, and the chance to get 3 more points. 

that would give Derby 3 free points and Preston 1.

Also Birmingham SIX.

Edited by a m ole
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19 minutes ago, osmark86 said:

Bristol up one.

If we win this then it will be a miracle.

Boro had a goal disallowed, hit the bar, hit the post, had 2 shots cleared off the line and missed 2 gilt edged chances, all at 0-0.

After going ahead we've been better, but we were hanging on for the first 30 minutes.

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6 minutes ago, Johnnyp said:

Boro in absolute freefall. They'd take Monk in a heart beat now i bet. Serves them right sacking a manager at Christmas when they were 5th.

Rumours that Pulis will be sacked if they lose tonight.

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Middlesbrough on a 5 run losing streak as it stands. If they can somehow fluke a win tonight I would much prefer that as they are no threat.

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