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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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2 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

I'm actually more worried about Rotherham, Bolton and Millwall than I am the others.

We've shown in recent weeks we can really raise our game when playing a side higher in the table. Blackburn was the first time since Stoke we'd played someone who weren't above us at the point of kick off and our bad habits came right back to the fore, we sat back for most of the second half and our general play became really sloppy, we started taking silly risks with possession in our own half.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying I think we'll beat Leeds, Norwich etc with ease but I'm confident we'll at least turn up properly for those whereas the others are a question mark for me.

We need to kill these teams off in the first half. Like we should have done Saturday.

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4 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

It know it’s a bit premature talking about this but was anyway able to get a ticket to the final last year with no booking history for that season? 

I think it was 5 games last season you had to have been to. Maybe it got down to 3, can't quite remember.

If you've got no booking history this season then you have basically no chance I would have thought. You'd have to get them from someone else with a booking history.

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1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

That’s one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is all the teams we are playing are all under pressure. I actually think the toughest opponent we’ve had during this run (not including Birmingham) was Blackburn. 

In that second half they played like a team that had no pressure on them. Moved it around really well. I was quite impressed.

Traditionally, the sides in the middle are easier at this stage of the season.  The old 'they're already on holidays' analogy.  There'll be exceptions and variables, but generally they're the ones you want.

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EDIT: Now thinking a BORO win (Not Bristol City) tonight might actually be best.

Nullifies ONE of their 2 game sin hand, and leaves us all on similar points even if the wain the other.

Edited by JAMAICAN-VILLAN
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Just now, Stevo985 said:

I think it was 5 games last season you had to have been to. Maybe it got down to 3, can't quite remember.

If you've got no booking history this season then you have basically no chance I would have thought. You'd have to get them from someone else with a booking history.

Yeah I’m going to go down to the next 3 games and hopefully the semi final.

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47 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Now thinking a Bristol City win tonight might actually be best.

Nullifies ONE of their 2 game sin hand, and leaves us all on similar points even if the wain the other.

Draw would be perfect.

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13 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Boro too. 

Wonder what the options may be. Switch the game to Villa park? Give Villa the 3 points?

I think they will just take the points away from the teams that have played them, meaning we are -3. That said, having looked, it affects pretty much everyone around us in that sense.
Biggest problem is, we would lose a game, and the chance to get 3 more points. 

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1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

We need to kill these teams off in the first half. Like we should have done Saturday.

We didn’t kill them off I was watching thinking it’s almost not the same team in the second half what happened 

 

 

1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

We need to kill these teams off in the first half. Like we should have done Saturday.

 

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7 minutes ago, ShaldonAVFC said:

We didn’t kill them off I was watching thinking it’s almost not the same team in the second half what happened 

 

 

 

To be fair its difficult to play at the intensity we did first half for 90 minutes. Also Blackburn moved it around really well. Even then they created nothing and scored from a mistake. We also had chances to get the 3rd in the second half. 

It was good to see us show some grit in seeing the game out. 

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1 hour ago, Keyblade said:

What's going on with Bolton?

Talk of them going bust. HMRC issued a winding up order like the one they issued to us over the summer. Bolton on the face of it look to be in even worse trouble with players not being paid/going on strike, no money to pay match stewards or meet safety obligations. It looks really bleak for them. Actually I wonder if that is where our visiting Leeds fans have gone - over to the Bolton forums to give them the benefit of their "experience".

Some of Bolton's woes are here https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/47787062 Feel for their fans. 

 

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1 hour ago, Keyblade said:

Surely if they win tonight as opposed to draw they'll pull even further away?

A draw would mean they drop 2 points as well as keeping Boro from overtaking us with their game in hand. That's 1 less team to worry about. A win sees them overtake us in 5th.

Boro are on 58 points with 1 game in hand, if they win, they go onto 61 points and leave us on 60, with games played then being even.

Bristol City are on 58 points with 2 games in hand, if they win, obviously they go onto 61 points, overtaking us, STILL with another game in hand. ( This means by the time games are even they could be on 64 points, 4 above us)

If it is a draw, Boro go onto 59 points (1 point behind us, with games played being even), Bristol City then go onto 59 points still with 1 game in hand, meaning when games played are even they could potentially be on 62 points (2 points ahead)

If Boro win, they go onto 61 points, with games played being even (Only 1 point ahead), while Bristol City will remain on 58 points with now only one game in hand, meaning even if they win there next game evening games played the max they get to is 61 points (Only one point ahead)

Table would then be (with hypothetical Boro and hypothetical Bristol City winning game in hand after losing to Boro to even games played)

Boro 61 points 

City 61 points

Villa 60 points

 

A draw would obviously put both on 59 points but ignores Bristol City game in hand which they could easily win putting them on 62 points. (2 points ahead instead of potential 1 with loss to Boro)

I know it is only 1 point difference, however I would prefer to temporarily drop out of the playoff places (Fake placing at current) with all games played even to give us the advantage of pushing them further behind us when we actually play them.

Basically a draw somewhat nullifies Boros threat, but heightens Bristol Citys threat, if that makes any sense. 😕

Obviously, they (Bristol City) preferably lose or draw the games in hand.

I'm just thinking worst case scenarios here.

EDIT: I am also garbage at maths, so apologies if i'm totally wrong.

 

Edited by JAMAICAN-VILLAN
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For me, I think all this really depends on who you see as a bigger threat to a play off position, Boro or Bristol City.

I think City are more of a threat, so if it’s not a draw tonight, my second preference is a Boro win.

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