18/19 Race for Promotion

[Johnnyp]

12 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Bristol wilm suffer fatigue very soon. The amount if games they will have to play will be very tiring. 

If we lose to the then we are in massive trouble that's for sure. 

I said it a month back about them that although, like Sheffield United, they seem to have more staying power this season, they're squad is lacking depth. They have to get the same 11 on the pitch week in week out to be on it. Can't sustain that especially playing catch up with games like they are.

[Made In Aston]

36 minutes ago, av1 said:

It's not in our hands, even if we best them we only go 2 points ahead and they still have a game in hand. 

You do know we can finish below Bristol city and still make the playoffs, right?

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

1 hour ago, Junxs said:

@JAMAICAN-VILLAN By the sounds of it did you mean you'd rather Boro beat Bristol tonight as you initially said better if Bristol win..

Yes that is what I meant. (Pretty sure thats what I said?)

As it would have nullified one of their games in hand.

Tonight's result is case in point.

Now if the win the next one they are 4 points ahead of us when games played are even.

Edited April 2, 2019 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN

[Junxs]

6 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Now thinking a Bristol City win tonight might actually be best.

Nullifies ONE of their 2 game sin hand, and leaves us all on similar points even if the wain the other.

[JamesBCFC]

36 minutes ago, Johnnyp said:

I said it a month back about them that although, like Sheffield United, they seem to have more staying power this season, they're squad is lacking depth. They have to get the same 11 on the pitch week in week out to be on it. Can't sustain that especially playing catch up with games like they are.

We have depth, not necessarily 4-5 players deep in each position, but enough to rotate. A lot of our players are very versatile too, so can cover for each other.

We finished the game tonight with 5 CBs on the pitch (albeit one is so comfortable on the ball he was capable of stepping into CM, and one has been playing LB this season and was LWB when he came on).

Our main issue with depth right now is CM, where we have 5 CMs, one who picked up a knock tonight and went off- after coming back from a 7 month injury on the weekend, one who just got a 2 game suspension for getting his 10th booking, another who is back from injury but not played since the return, a youth player breaking through and Brownhill.

Other issue is goalkeepers, 2 first choice ones are out, we signed a free transfer as cover until the end of the season and he got subbed after 35 or so minutes in an u23 game because he picked up a knock, so we used an academy graduate tonight with no goalkeeper on the bench, but realistically you shouldn't need to end up on a 3rd or 4th choice goalkeeper, and certainly not twice in one season like we have!

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

2 minutes ago, Junxs said:

Oh shoot, my bad.

Yes it was obviously Boro. lol

Will go back and correct.

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

6 hours ago, Keyblade said:

Surely if they win tonight as opposed to draw they'll pull even further away?

A draw would mean they drop 2 points as well as keeping Boro from overtaking us with their game in hand. That's 1 less team to worry about. A win sees them overtake us in 5th.

@Junxs made me realise I actually said BRISTOL CITY in the original post.

What I meant was a BORO win, got my wires crossed

Edited April 2, 2019 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN

[jackbauer24]

I think, think, mathematically it IS now completely in our hands to get 6th.

Assuming we win every game and every permutation of a 'bad' result went against us I think we're still a minimum of 6th. So we win everything and our rivals win everything. The Derby/Bristol result means we'd jump above one of them at least;

Derby win their game in hand and they are two points ahead of us. A loss means we jump above them. A win means Bristol behind us.

Bristol win their game in hand so are four points ahead of us, but we play them and then a loss to Derby puts them behind us. A win means Derby behind us.

A draw, I think means they could be both behind us... It's complicated but I used a predictor and that's what it seemed to show.

But it's all SO mathematical as to be largely irrelevant at the moment! But it's nice to know that, technically, it is in our own hands now!

Edit; CONFIRMED!

We win every game we're on 81pts after 46 games.

Bristol and Derby win every game they play against other opposition and after 45 games they are on 79 and 80pts respectively.

No result in Bristol vs Derby can put them both above us.

Edited April 2, 2019 by jackbauer24
Further research

[cyrusr]

31 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Other issue is goalkeepers, 2 first choice ones are out, we signed a free transfer as cover until the end of the season and he got subbed after 35 or so minutes in an u23 game because he picked up a knock, so we used an academy graduate tonight with no goalkeeper on the bench, but realistically you shouldn't need to end up on a 3rd or 4th choice goalkeeper, and certainly not twice in one season like we have!

That is not a good situation to be in. Whilst we have had 4 keepers this season it’s been through our own choice. Are the other 3 likely to be back soon?

[7392craig]

38 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

I think, think, mathematically it IS now completely in our hands to get 6th.

Assuming we win every game and every permutation of a 'bad' result went against us I think we're still a minimum of 6th. So we win everything and our rivals win everything. The Derby/Bristol result means we'd jump above one of them at least;

Derby win their game in hand and they are two points ahead of us. A loss means we jump above them. A win means Bristol behind us.

Bristol win their game in hand so are four points ahead of us, but we play them and then a loss to Derby puts them behind us. A win means Derby behind us.

A draw, I think means they could be both behind us... It's complicated but I used a predictor and that's what it seemed to show.

But it's all SO mathematical as to be largely irrelevant at the moment! But it's nice to know that, technically, it is in our own hands now!

Edit; CONFIRMED!

We win every game we're on 81pts after 46 games.

Bristol and Derby win every game they play against other opposition and after 45 games they are on 79 and 80pts respectively.

No result in Bristol vs Derby can put them both above us.

You deserve a medal for all that.

[Junxs]

2 hours ago, av1 said:

It's not in our hands, even if we best them we only go 2 points ahead and they still have a game in hand. 

But Bristol City and Derby have to play each other and they can't both win that game. We win every game (including our game against Bristol City) and we will make it regardless of anything else happening, so it is in our hands

EDIT: Jack Bauer is always one step ahead, tick tock tick tock

Edited April 2, 2019 by Junxs

[Keyblade]

1 hour ago, jackbauer24 said:

I think, think, mathematically it IS now completely in our hands to get 6th.

Assuming we win every game and every permutation of a 'bad' result went against us I think we're still a minimum of 6th. So we win everything and our rivals win everything. The Derby/Bristol result means we'd jump above one of them at least;

Derby win their game in hand and they are two points ahead of us. A loss means we jump above them. A win means Bristol behind us.

Bristol win their game in hand so are four points ahead of us, but we play them and then a loss to Derby puts them behind us. A win means Derby behind us.

A draw, I think means they could be both behind us... It's complicated but I used a predictor and that's what it seemed to show.

But it's all SO mathematical as to be largely irrelevant at the moment! But it's nice to know that, technically, it is in our own hands now!

Edit; CONFIRMED!

We win every game we're on 81pts after 46 games.

Bristol and Derby win every game they play against other opposition and after 45 games they are on 79 and 80pts respectively.

No result in Bristol vs Derby can put them both above us.

5th is also in our hands too then.

That fixture is a godsend really.

The question then becomes, do you think we can match the results of Derby and/or Bristol? How we're playing? No question. When you put it that way, I'm very confident. 

[jackbauer24]

12 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

5th is also in our hands too then.

That fixture is a godsend really.

The question then becomes, do you think we can match the results of Derby and/or Bristol? How we're playing? No question. When you put it that way, I'm very confident. 

No, fifth ISN'T in our hands because if either Bristol or Derby were to win all their games then they would land above us. It's just they can't both do it! Fifth is just POSSIBLE in my ridiculous scenario where as sixth would be GUARANTEED.

Also, if you start talking about just matching results, then you have to consider at least another three teams arguable.

Edited April 3, 2019 by jackbauer24

[JamesBCFC]

1 hour ago, cyrusr said:

That is not a good situation to be in. Whilst we have had 4 keepers this season it’s been through our own choice. Are the other 3 likely to be back soon?

1, possibly 2 (both first choice) are out until the end of the season.

O'Leary (youth graduate) and the new signing were going to share time in goal until one made a claim for the shirt, but Marinovic had an extremely dodgy debut and not appeared for the first team since.

Marinovic was the one subbed through injury in the u23 game but he was warming up before the Boro game, so believed to be fit. Johnson said having no goalkeeper on the bench was a choice to give an extra option off the bench.

[Tomaszk]

I'm never that confident usually but we're playing out of our skins. Much more worried about Sheff Wed than Bristol at home, purely as it's away. I think we'll thump Lee Johnson again, just like the 5-0.

[Keyblade]

24 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

No, fifth ISN'T in our hands because if either Bristol or Derby were to win all their games then they would land above us. It's just they can't both do it! Fifth is just POSSIBLE in my ridiculous scenario where as sixth would be GUARANTEED.

I misread your post as referring to the max points for each team and not the max points before 1 or both of them drop points when they play each other.

Ignoring everything, and for argument's sake assuming their game in hand is the one where they play each other:

Worst case scenario (Bristol Win ): Pick up 4 more points than Bristol and match Derby until the end of the season. (Actually not that bad if this is the worst case scenario).

Slightly better scenario (Derby Win): Pick up 2 more points than Derby and 1 more than Bristol.

Best case scenario (Draw):  Pick up 2 more points than more than Bristol and match Derby.

Best case scenario made easier (Draw + Villa win against Bristol): Simply match Derby and Bristol's results until the end of the season (1 point of leeway with Bristol). In other words, it's completely in our own hands.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Keyblade

[fightoffyour]

13 hours ago, Merson08 said:

After the Blackburn game Aston Villa have 60 points out of a possible 117. The final projected points total will currently be 71 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 9th.

There is still 21 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 81 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 72 points that is points after 46 games. That has included of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.66PPG from Smith. Using 1.66PPG over the remaining 7 games.

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 8th. 

 

Since the appointment of Dean Smith with Grealish fit the new projected points total would be 76 points after 46 games. That includes our 60 points now and projecting the current 2.29 PPG (P14 W10 D2 L2 Pts 32) from Smith with Grealish fit over the remaining 7 games.

[Villarocker]

Bristol City and Boro have the easiest set of fixtures so definitely need a draw from that game. Got to hope that the mid table teams compete against those two and that we take care of our own business by winning at least from of which one has to be the Bristol City game. 

Derby will bottle it - they've got Keogh in defence and I guarantee he'll personally cost them at least once in the run-in. 

The others have tougher fixtures and will fall away. 

[John]

8 hours ago, Made In Aston said:

You do know we can finish below Bristol city and still make the playoffs, right?

A potential two legged tie against Sheffield United, with WBA and Bristol City fighting it out for the right to play us at Wembley, would have some appeal. 

It's early days to think of play off games though. We have to keep winning and let other clubs worry about playing us. Nevertheless, the home game with Bristol City is looking increasingly important isn't it? We need to maintain our momentum at Sheffield first though and just focus on finishing sixth or better.

Edited April 3, 2019 by John

[Demitri_C]

53 minutes ago, John said:

A potential two legged tie against Sheffield United, with WBA and Bristol City fighting it out for the right to play us at Wembley, would have some appeal. 

It's early days to think of play off games though. We have to keep winning and let other clubs worry about playing us. Nevertheless, the home game with Bristol City is looking increasingly important isn't it? We need to maintain our momentum at Sheffield first though and just focus on finishing sixth or better.

Even though Sheffield United are third and been very good I think I fancy us against them in a two legged game. They will be shaky after what happened at villa Park and we played terribly that night. 

Also we had no grealish in that game and that's a big difference.