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The Race for Europe 20/21


GingerCollins29

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This season is going to feel like such a missed opportunity when we look back on it I feel. The rest of the league barring Man City and possibly Leicester is so poor and inconsistent.

Another weekend of Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, possibly Man U etc. not winning. Seems to be a similar list most weeks of late.

I know I'm being selective with the teams but taking 2 points from 18 against Burnley, Brighton and West Ham is painful. I'm choosing them because we competed with them much of last year and we've played them all twice this season. 9 from 18 from those and we're in champions league spot now.

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At this stage last season our 36 points would have been enough to get us into the top five, so it's not as if the teams above us have become worse, they've actually improved. When looking at the season as an whole we're massively overachieving to be where we are, we were never going to keep up the early season form.

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Going to be an interesting and potentially complicated end to the season.

  • The top 5 qualify for Europe automatically.
  • If City win the league cup then 6th will also qualify. 
  • If Spurs win the league cup, Spurs qualify - if they're in the top five then 6th does too, if they're 6th it's them and if they're lower than 6th, they qualify and 6th doesn't.
  • If someone in the top five wins the FA Cup, then 6th (or 7th depending on whether 6th is already in because of the league cup) qualifies.
  • If Man City win the League cup and one of the top four win the FA Cup  then sixth and seventh qualify - but, if Arsenal or Spurs were to finish lower than 7th and win the Europa league, they'd qualify for the Champions league, 7th wouldn't qualify at all and 4th place would go into the Europa league. It'll be fun if that happens!

I think 6th would have to be the target, I wouldn't rely on 7th place getting anyone in.

It'll be possible to finish 6th this season and not qualify for Europe.

 

 

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55 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Going to be an interesting and potentially complicated end to the season.

  • The top 5 qualify for Europe automatically.
  • If City win the league cup then 6th will also qualify. 
  • If Spurs win the league cup, Spurs qualify - if they're in the top five then 6th does too, if they're 6th it's them and if they're lower than 6th, they qualify and 6th doesn't.
  • If someone in the top five wins the FA Cup, then 6th (or 7th depending on whether 6th is already in because of the league cup) qualifies.
  • If Man City win the League cup and one of the top four win the FA Cup  then sixth and seventh qualify - but, if Arsenal or Spurs were to finish lower than 7th and win the Europa league, they'd qualify for the Champions league, 7th wouldn't qualify at all and 4th place would go into the Europa league. It'll be fun if that happens!

I think 6th would have to be the target, I wouldn't rely on 7th place getting anyone in.

It'll be possible to finish 6th this season and not qualify for Europe.

 

 

Based on several factors there is no way we are finishing sixth, no way!

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It was fun while it lasted...

Dean Smith has spoken a lot about consistency recently and ultimately that is what will stop us getting into the top six. It seemed to be there but I think it will be too difficult as I'm sure Spuds and Arsenal will finish above us.

The points dropped in games we should have won will really hurt our position.

There's always hope but in reality I think top ten is the best we can muster now. Start of the season that would have been good but we seemed to have some momentum which we have now lost it seems. 

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12 hours ago, turvontour said:

This season is going to feel like such a missed opportunity when we look back on it I feel. The rest of the league barring Man City and possibly Leicester is so poor and inconsistent.

Another weekend of Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, possibly Man U etc. not winning. Seems to be a similar list most weeks of late.

I know I'm being selective with the teams but taking 2 points from 18 against Burnley, Brighton and West Ham is painful. I'm choosing them because we competed with them much of last year and we've played them all twice this season. 9 from 18 from those and we're in champions league spot now.

this is how i feel. yes, we'll strengthen further in the summer, but there is no way the likes of spurs are going to be this bad next season. everton look like they're going the right direction too plus chelsea have got their act together. it's so difficult to break into that top 5/6 and this season we had a real possibility of it.

you're on the money certainly with burnley and brighton. that's 8 points dropped. if even the draws were turned into wins we'd have been above everton, level on points with liverpool with 2 games in hand on them.

if we finish top half, that's still a fantastic achievement of course, but these opportunities don't come around every season where multiple big sides under perform. it happened when leicester won the league (i still maintain this leicester side beats that leicester side if they play each other today) and it's happened this season. west ham have a genuine chance at the champions league ffs. that's how poor some teams have been. it won't be this easy next season

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12 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:
  • If Man City win the League cup and one of the top four win the FA Cup  then sixth and seventh qualify - but, if Arsenal or Spurs were to finish lower than 7th and win the Europa league, they'd qualify for the Champions league, 7th wouldn't qualify at all and 4th place would go into the Europa league. It'll be fun if that happens!

Actually 4th place would still qualify for the CL unless the winner of that also finishes outside the top 4 in the PL (eyes on Chelsea and Liverpool then):

Quote
How does winning UCL/UEL affect qualification?

Should a Premier League club win the UEFA Champions League they will automatically qualify for the group stage of next season's competition regardless of their league finishing position.

Should a Premier League club win the UEFA Europa League they will automatically qualify for the group stage of next season's UEFA Champions League regardless of their league finishing position.

A maximum of five Premier League teams are eligible for UEFA Champions League qualification.

In the event that a Premier League club win the UEFA Champions League and another win the UEFA Europa League and neither of these clubs finish in the top four of the Premier League, the club lying fourth in the table will drop into the UEFA Europa League group stage.

Only then would 1st to 3rd qualify for the CL and 4th to 6th or domestic cup winners for the EL.

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1 hour ago, tomav84 said:

this is how i feel. yes, we'll strengthen further in the summer, but there is no way the likes of spurs are going to be this bad next season. everton look like they're going the right direction too plus chelsea have got their act together. it's so difficult to break into that top 5/6 and this season we had a real possibility of it.

you're on the money certainly with burnley and brighton. that's 8 points dropped. if even the draws were turned into wins we'd have been above everton, level on points with liverpool with 2 games in hand on them.

if we finish top half, that's still a fantastic achievement of course, but these opportunities don't come around every season where multiple big sides under perform. it happened when leicester won the league (i still maintain this leicester side beats that leicester side if they play each other today) and it's happened this season. west ham have a genuine chance at the champions league ffs. that's how poor some teams have been. it won't be this easy next season

We seem to be saying 'x team won't be this bad again next year' alot recently and guess what...

It might feel like a missed opportunity but I remain convinced we are heading in the right direction and we will get there. I don't think anyone expected this 'oppurtunity' at seasons beginning. It is/was a bonus. Trust the system, it's what I'm doing and it hasn't let me down since day 1 of Smith.

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This idea that teams around us are doing poorly so if we don't somehow capitalize it's a missed opportunity isn't true, the teams around us are doing better than they were last season, normally after 24/25 games our 36 points would see us in a higher position in the league, and we've only played 23 games, there's not much more that can be expected of a team of our quality, we're already overachieving as it is.

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We need two wins from next four games to still have serious shot so just up to the team to just go out there and beat Sheffield United and Newcastle as they really should.

Not impossible we could get wins from Wolves and Leeds either but they look more draws to me and even then we need to get our midfield set up spot on which has become a problem again over last few weeks.

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I think actually we could qualify for Europe, but realistically it would only be for the Europa league and TBF that is a bit of a nightmare. About 300 extra matches (seems like that anyway) playing in obscure towns and cities in Europe no-one has ever heard of, on Thursday evenings, and needing to double if not more the quality of the squad to cope with the stress? Not sure that would be the greatest thing to happen to the club 

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5 hours ago, VillaChris said:

We need two wins from next four games to still have serious shot so just up to the team to just go out there and beat Sheffield United and Newcastle as they really should.

Not impossible we could get wins from Wolves and Leeds either but they look more draws to me and even then we need to get our midfield set up spot on which has become a problem again over last few weeks.

For the champions league or Europa? 

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