Generic Virus Thread

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

7 minutes ago, terrytini said:

Personally I wouldn’t go near an airport or aeroplane until I’ve been vaccinated. No way.

It's not just that though,  it's the sudden loss of anyway home if the worst happens in the country where you are for example. (virus 2nd wave or whatever).

An island nation,  way down the list also.  You can't even sneak out.

 

 

[Davkaus]

I agree. Until the risk of infection becomes negligible, I'd be nowhere near any form of public transport, you can't keep 2m from someone on a plane.

[chrisp65]

It’s important that the exit strategy begins soon.

Everyone 50 and over was an integral part of our victory in World War II and needs to be able to organise a booze up. Everyone under the age of 50 couldn’t possibly go an entire month without a shitty fast food burger.

Let’s get Covid done.

[Tomaszk]

2 hours ago, villa4europe said:

rumours here this morning that they've held discussions on cancelling Oktoberfest this year 

that would be massive, cant imagine Bavaria liking it, it generates about £1.2bn in revenue, 7m visitors

When do they usually hold it?

 

8 hours ago, Brumerican said:

PM'd you.

Can I have that as well please.

[villa4europe]

3 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

When do they usually hold it?

Its called oktoberfest but starts in mid September I think, lasts 2 weeks

Edited April 16, 2020 by villa4europe

[OutByEaster?]

17 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

My brother in law is set to get married in Cyprus at the end of July. Thats not going to happen right?

The wedding company have told him it will all go ahead, coincidently just as final payments were required. 

He's convinced it will be fine and that 30 of us will be flying out to celebrate it. 

Which July?

I'd put it about 50-50 for July 2021.

[VILLAMARV]

Re: the statistics. 

Yes there's lag, different ways of recording the same info, different ways of reporting said info and all the normal caveats on the presented results. (Even something like counting deaths from the coroner can be remarkably complicated)

What I personally have found interesting is seeing things like the ONS posting links straight to google for some stats. And people suggesting supermarkets prioritize deliveries to the frail etc without actually saying how that's possible when it's hard enough for the nhs to confidently identify someone as frail anyway.

The nhs (in England at least) is already contracted to sharing some of its info with Amazon. Remember the Alexa / 111 story last year?

The idea that our information is being held by corporations sits uneasily with me. The whole idea of our medical records and data being recorded at all sends a shudder down the spine of many. And health data doesn't really care for the Keynesian perfect model much and as such has been of little interest to many in the field. 

The icnarc data hanoivillan quoted via Twitter is about as good as it gets in real time and that's the audit trail. People like counting the money. Not so much the dead bodies. 

This all links back to the whole 'terms and conditions' documentary topic from a few years back. The rules governing govt bodies are different to those in the private sector. What may be information the government has rules over holding, using and so on, May well be used differently in the private sector if you clicked ok on the latest app or really wanted said consumer item. For govt, outsourcing the liability seems commonplace in today's world.

To my mind we are past the point of discussing whether this data is collected or not and facing a difficult quandry of who we would like to have it and how it is used in the future. With the 111 link to alexa and so on, it may already be too late to stop the privatisation of a key sector. 

The nhs/govt having our medical records on file may well lead to problems of privacy and more. But is that better or worse than Amazon linking it to our consumer spending? Would we, the public, be better served by a government agency bound by law? 

The nhs is one of the largest employment organizations on the planet. It also has public health records compiled over time unlike anywhere else in the world. That is a massive commodity. That it is already paired off into a public/private partnership should tell you how potentially profitable it could be. If the nhs needs money it's sitting on a goldmine right there.

Amazon et al aren't in it for the kudos.

Much radio output over the past month or so has centered on statistics and I heard last night how everyone has been learning about them being a good thing in relation to believing experts again. 

People are quick to point to unemployment and lettuces. With x many people unemployed surely outsourcing to Bezos et al is just as mental as getting some manual labour performed if the safety and sanctity of our medical records is concerned. I suppose it also depends whether saving the nhs gets any serious consideration past people's doorsteps and clapping. 

 

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

17 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

I agree. Until the risk of infection becomes negligible, I'd be nowhere near any form of public transport, you can't keep 2m from someone on a plane.

EasyJet have got this really well conceived idea that if the middle seat is left empty then that should be fine. Erm, nah, you’re alright, thanks.

[HanoiVillan]

3 hours ago, Genie said:

Whilst I agree with your general sentiment, I doubt very much the bounce will be as quick as the scenario they modelled, they are not saying that in June everything will be back to normal. They said IF the lockdown ended at the end of May there would be a 3 month period of partial re-opening (as you said). So they are saying things back to the new normal around September time (again, I think it’ll be longer than that but they have more data and detail than me).

Okay, thanks for highlighting the detail, but I still think they're completely wrong, and you could just take my initial post and change the word 'June' for 'September'. The period of partial re-opening is not going to be just three months, barring a surprise medical discovery at a vastly faster time-scale than anybody is currently predicting (most estimates on vaccines I have seen are suggesting the back end of 2021 before you can even start widespread distribution, and more likely later than that than sooner than that). The reason I find their report so annoying is that the OBR did this at the end of the financial crisis as well, predicting huge growth rates that never came close to being realised, and which helped lay the groundwork for the ten years of austerity that we've just been through, so you might have hoped they'd have learned their lesson, but alas, up to their same old tricks.

Last night, I listened to a recent episode of 'The Weeds' podcast called 'How does this end?' (https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/voxs-the-weeds/e/68731229), in which they discuss four plans for reopening the economy, and it's a very instructive conversation for how unlike normality what we're going to go through will be. Obviously the context is American, but the issues raised are relevant to us too. To summarise as briefly as I can, the four plans are and involve:

• a plan from the American Enterprise Institute which involves calling lockdowns 'phase 1' and gradual reopenings 'phase 2', and that there would be a series of automatic triggers to do with infection rates and death totals which would move the country in between these two phases. Phase 2 would involve cautiously reopening businesses slowly, but maintaining social distancing, doing everything very slowly, and just trying to hunker through it until a vaccine comes. I think this is what most people are expecting the UK and the US to do, but it won't lead to a V-shaped recovery;
• a plan from the Center for American Progress that involves everyone having an app on their phone that constantly traces where everyone in the country is, which combined with hugely ramped-up testing, would allow health care workers to identify who is sick, then identify everyone they have been close to via their phone data over the previous few days, and then send them a message that they need to enter isolation for 14 days etc. This is based on what seems to be working in Taiwan and South Korea, but obviously creating a surveillance state with very little privacy in the midst of a crisis, and very reliant on people following instructions that they will find inconvenient;
• a plan from Harvard that involves a wartime mobilisation, involves spending $2-3 trillion dollars on increasing testing and IT surveillance, and then creating a medical corps, where anybody who tests as having had the virus or has the presence of sufficient antibodies is drafted into high-risk activities because they're presumed to be immune;
• a plan from economist Paul Rohmer that involves conducting around 22 million tests per day, enough so that everyone in the American population could be tested every 14 days, which he suggests through mathematical modelling would be enough to seriously disrupt the flow of the virus. The problem being, fairly obviously, that there is currently nowhere near the capacity to conduct anything like 22 million tests per day, and it's not just the chemical reagent that is in short supply, but the nasal swabs and the plastic tips they go on etc etc.

All of these plans might work, but each has big flaws, but the key point is that none of them look anything like 'normal', and while some of them might allow for faster economic recoveries (plans 2-4) they are all pretty unrealistic in other ways. I just think the OBR are applying a very flawed idea of what the country and the world are going to look like, in a world where the medical 'facts on the ground' have barely changed.

Edited April 16, 2020 by HanoiVillan

[OutByEaster?]

I've got a horrible feeling that the American approach will be lead by hedge fund managers, not scientists or economists. Trump's "open everything by Easter" speech was a direct result of a meeting he'd had that day with managers of some of the worlds biggest funds - they'll be putting some pressure on him to open up asap - they're the people he listens to.

 

[Stevo985]

52 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

My brother in law is set to get married in Cyprus at the end of July. Thats not going to happen right?

The wedding company have told him it will all go ahead, coincidently just as final payments were required. 

He's convinced it will be fine and that 30 of us will be flying out to celebrate it. 

 

I'd be very very surprised if International flights are back to normal by then

[Genie]

I have to pay the balance on my Spanish July holiday next week. I suspect they will not offer any refunds or free alterations until AFTER they are holding my money.

[DCJonah]

1 minute ago, OutByEaster? said:

I've got a horrible feeling that the American approach will be lead by hedge fund managers, not scientists or economists. Trump's "open everything by Easter" speech was a direct result of a meeting he'd had that day with managers of some of the worlds biggest funds - they'll be putting some pressure on him to open up asap - they're the people he listens to.

 

I think we will be the same. 

Reports about opening schools back up soon are starting to appear in the press. Ian Duncan Smith making it very clear its not about education or children's well being but all about getting people back to work.

Meanwhile in Italy, I read they're not planning to phase schools back in till September at the earliest. 

 

[DCJonah]

2 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

I'd be very very surprised if International flights are back to normal by then

Its what I'm hoping for. It will make things awkward when some members of the family want to go and I'm refusing to take my kids over. 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

 

4 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

Its what I'm hoping for. It will make things awkward when some members of the family want to go and I'm refusing to take my kids over. 

Just say so and so is not feeling top of the pops,  fever and that the day before.

[terrytini]

6 minutes ago, Genie said:

I have to pay the balance on my Spanish July holiday next week. I suspect they will not offer any refunds or free alterations until AFTER they are holding my money.

If it were me I’d read your contract terms very closely so you know the position accurately rather than guessing.

Not being funny but if you struggle with such things send me a copy I’ll have a look....(as an ex Trading Standards Officer I’m a bit out of touch but will do my best ).

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, terrytini said:

If it were me I’d read your contract terms very closely so you know the position accurately rather than guessing.

Not being funny but if you struggle with such things send me a copy I’ll have a look....(as an ex Trading Standards Officer I’m a bit out of touch but will do my best ).

Thank for the offer but I’m familiar with the situation.

Currently TUI are only offering free amendments on holidays up to end of June. So my options are either not to pay the remaining £1600 and lose my £800 deposit. Or pay the balance and wait and see if/when July holidays get cancelled I request a refund (which they don’t want to do but law says they have to) or transfer it to something else.

[Jareth]

1 hour ago, DCJonah said:

My brother in law is set to get married in Cyprus at the end of July. Thats not going to happen right?

The wedding company have told him it will all go ahead, coincidently just as final payments were required. 

He's convinced it will be fine and that 30 of us will be flying out to celebrate it. 

 

I'd sack that off pronto. Things can change, and fast, imagine being quarantined in a hotel? No ta. Your brother in law needs to get real - shouldn't be putting folks in this situation and should delay. 

[DCJonah]

this would be such a tory move.

A lawyer for the good law project claims they have received evidence that drs in a trust are being asked to not put Covid-19 as the cause of death. 

There has to be an independent enquiry when things get back to normal 

[DCJonah]

4 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I'd sack that off pronto. Things can change, and fast, imagine being quarantined in a hotel? No ta. Your brother in law needs to get real - shouldn't be putting folks in this situation and should delay. 

there is no way I'll be going. I just know it will lead to difficult conversations with some of the family. Ultimately I would never put my kids at any potential risk by going in July.