HanoiVillan Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, LondonLax said: Indeed, I expect that a level of ‘excess mortality’ will begin to show up as hospitals are overwhelmed but getting an accurate handle on what this rate actually is is very important. Shuttering the economy for 12 months will also result in deaths. There will be additional deaths from alcoholism, drug use, depression due to job losses. Additional deaths from domestic violence. Additional deaths from things like malnutrition. It is very important to get a proper understanding of whether the deaths from the virus are greater than these deaths, in order to justify the measures. I don't disagree with what you're saying here, but I just think it's not the time to start worrying about it. While cases are rising rapidly, even in lockdown, we know that if we were to take the lockdown off right now, the healthcare system would immediately be swamped, in which case we would almost certainly have both excess mortality from the virus *and* from the inevitable retreat to lockdown shortly after. It would make more sense to be having this debate after the peak has clearly been reached, and we've had a couple of weeks of declining mortality. EDIT: When balancing excess mortality, you have to consider the huge drop in air pollution as well, which is likely to have considerable effects depressing mortality during the lockdown. Edited April 1, 2020 by HanoiVillan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post chrisp65 Posted April 1, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 1, 2020 I’m obviously not going to name sources so feel free to put this in the pile marked anecdote. Still, this morning there is a lack of basic ppe for frontline health staff. Some are literally casting around friends to see who might have a box of gloves spare or a mask or an apron. It’s April now, somebody needs a bloody good kicking after this. Absolute revolution needed In the fall out from this. Not some shit enquiry followed by a statement saying lessons have already been learnt and measures are now in place blah blah blah. Proper change, from what countries we do business with, to what industry counts as essential, to why we commute and how we want health and social care provided. State of the economy and the state of the world, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to recalibrate what we are about. I fear that at the end of this, we will simply plan how quickly we can get back to exactly where we were. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted April 1, 2020 Moderator Share Posted April 1, 2020 My mates parents are on the Zaandam cruise ship. Absolutely crazy situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted April 1, 2020 Moderator Share Posted April 1, 2020 1 minute ago, chrisp65 said: I fear that at the end of this, we will simply plan how quickly we can get back to exactly where we were. Whole-heartedly agree apart from this line, as I think those plans are currently ongoing at the expense of planning things like PPE and ventilators. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakotaDakota Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Ok so after leaving my house for the first time in 2 weeks this definitely isn't a lockdown that is going to stop people getting it. It may slow it down a bit but my local high st looked pretty much business as usual other than the smaller shops being closed. Loads of (mostly old) people out and about with bog roll & paracetamol in plentiful supply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 noticed in my inbox that some gigs from April that were cancelled are being rescheduled for September dates... wonder if they are guessing or the promoters / events know something we don’t ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 1 minute ago, tonyh29 said: noticed in my inbox that some gigs from April that were cancelled are being rescheduled for September dates... wonder if they are guessing or the promoters / events know something we don’t ? I look at to Get to the front, its a gig listings site, and the amount of gigs rescheduled to September and October is ridiculous. Its a huge gamble it will not only be over by then, but we are allowed to congregate in large crowds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: noticed in my inbox that some gigs from April that were cancelled are being rescheduled for September dates... wonder if they are guessing or the promoters / events know something we don’t ? A friend of mine works for the NEC. He said they are planning for at least december before mass gatherings are allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 48 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: I don't disagree with what you're saying here, but I just think it's not the time to start worrying about it. While cases are rising rapidly, even in lockdown, we know that if we were to take the lockdown off right now, the healthcare system would immediately be swamped, in which case we would almost certainly have both excess mortality from the virus *and* from the inevitable retreat to lockdown shortly after. It would make more sense to be having this debate after the peak has clearly been reached, and we've had a couple of weeks of declining mortality. EDIT: When balancing excess mortality, you have to consider the huge drop in air pollution as well, which is likely to have considerable effects depressing mortality during the lockdown. I think the most striking thing for me is how unprepared countries in the west seem to be. Whereby we are now using the sledgehammer of a lockdown to try and stem the worst. The comparison to somewhere like South Korea is striking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted April 1, 2020 Moderator Share Posted April 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: noticed in my inbox that some gigs from April that were cancelled are being rescheduled for September dates... wonder if they are guessing or the promoters / events know something we don’t ? Guessing is my guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, LondonLax said: I think the most striking thing for me is how unprepared countries in the west seem to be. Whereby we are now using the sledgehammer of a lockdown to try and stem the worst. The comparison to somewhere like South Korea is striking. Yes, that's true. The pandemic seems to have caught several countries at moments when they had weak governments that felt unable to impose unpopular distancing measures early (Italy and Spain apply, and maybe to a lesser extent France), and other countries at the end of a long period of austerity and removal of state capacity (the UK, and also the US). Of course, Asian countries also learned lessons the hard way from SARS and bird flu, so maybe we will do likewise from this pandemic, but one thing this crisis has brought home is how we never compare ourselves to advanced Asian democracies in everyday political discourse, yet there may be a lot to learn from what works well in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, and not only on the public health front either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 On top of postponed gigs being cancelled, a few bands I want to see have announced new dates in September/October as well. It's going to be interesting when they all end up rescheduling again. I don't expect to be able to see another gig this year, tbh. Certainly not at a venue bigger than a pub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, bickster said: Guessing is my guess Me too, probably just booking venues before all dates are gone Entertainment industry panic buying Edited April 1, 2020 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted April 1, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 1, 2020 The argument that most people dying must have had an undiagnosed condition has a fatal flaw. If there are so many undiagnosed conditions about, what makes you think that YOU haven't got one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, mjmooney said: The argument that most people dying must have had an undiagnosed condition has a fatal flaw. If there are so many undiagnosed conditions about, what makes you think that YOU haven't got one? Just another example of trying to make the data fit the hypothesis. Lots of that going around at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 The deaths in Germany has jumped dramatically Over 700 now, was below 150 a week ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to recalibrate what we are about. Absolutely. I just worry that the threat of infection continues for months after the curve is flattened and people reeling and fatigued by it all can't muster the energy to demand a recalibration. Aspiring fascists are already maneuvering to use this pandemic to suspend civil rights. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Maine goes into full lockdown at midnight tonight until April 27. Grocery stores will be mobbed all day, and nobody will be enforcing 6ft distancing. Another month of sitting around my apartment, urghhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakotaDakota Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, mjmooney said: The argument that most people dying must have had an undiagnosed condition has a fatal flaw. If there are so many undiagnosed conditions about, what makes you think that YOU haven't got one? That's the issue isn't it, which is why the behave like you have it & stay home as much as possible advice is sensible. My wife's mom came on a trip away with us last year, completely unaware that she had cancer at the time, didn't find out until weeks/months later. Just because you look/feel ok doesn't mean there isn't something bad going on inside & it seems that this take advantage of that & will make whatever you may have an awful lot more of an urgent problem than it would otherwise be Edited April 1, 2020 by LakotaDakota 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dante_Lockhart Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 1 hour ago, LakotaDakota said: Ok so after leaving my house for the first time in 2 weeks this definitely isn't a lockdown that is going to stop people getting it. It may slow it down a bit but my local high st looked pretty much business as usual other than the smaller shops being closed. Loads of (mostly old) people out and about with bog roll & paracetamol in plentiful supply That's the whole point. It's not to stop people getting it, it's to slow down the transmission so as to not overwhelm the NHS to breaking point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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