LondonLax Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, mjmooney said: The argument that most people dying must have had an undiagnosed condition has a fatal flaw. If there are so many undiagnosed conditions about, what makes you think that YOU haven't got one? That is true for the flu though and even for people with underlying conditions the vast majority shrug it off after a couple of weeks. Hence the need to look at ‘excess mortality’ to get an understanding. Unfortunately it’s difficult to know in advance, only really once we look back can we know for sure. The indications from countries who have undertaken significant testing like Korea seem to indicate a mortality rate in line with the flu. They have found that there are many people who get it but show almost no symptoms (bringing the mortality rate significantly down). Even for elderly people who get it, the majority will survive, it’s not like it is a death sentence if you get it at 90, you are still most likely to shrug it off according to the data. The main problem seems to be how contagious it is, not so much how deadly it is. Its rate of contagion means so many people show up at hospitals at the same time needing help to get through it and our hospitals are not designed for that. Without a vaccine social distancing is the only effective measure we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pas5898 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 48 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: noticed in my inbox that some gigs from April that were cancelled are being rescheduled for September dates... wonder if they are guessing or the promoters / events know something we don’t ? 2 events I'm headed to have been put back 1 year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 1, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 1, 2020 21 minutes ago, mjmooney said: The argument that most people dying must have had an undiagnosed condition has a fatal flaw. If there are so many undiagnosed conditions about, what makes you think that YOU haven't got one? yeah this is bothering me too. SOmeone saying "oh but that victim DID have a health condition, he just didn't know about it" brings me no comfort. If it's killing people who have an underlying health condition so mild that you haven't even noticed it, then that could easily be me or my loved ones. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 48 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: noticed in my inbox that some gigs from April that were cancelled are being rescheduled for September dates... wonder if they are guessing or the promoters / events know something we don’t ? I suspect that September is the earliest realistic guess of a date and they need to give some sort of date to limit the number of people bailing and getting their money back. You’ve reserved a slot and giving a slight incentive not to start giving too much money back. Get the punters to September, if it then needs moving to January, that’s an easier sell than telling people now to hold their ticket for best part of a year. Is my guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 The only way out is testing, and surveillance. There is an app in its early stages based on the one they used in South Korea, but it's pointless tracking people's movements, unless the testing capacity is in place. This government have made errors already, but failing to get the testing ramped up is a problem in the here and now - I think they're screwing this up royally. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 3 hours ago, LondonLax said: Shuttering the economy for 12 months will also result in deaths. There will be additional deaths from alcoholism, drug use, depression due to job losses. Additional deaths from domestic violence. Additional deaths from things like malnutrition. It is very important to get a proper understanding of whether the deaths from the virus are greater than these deaths, in order to justify the measures. This is not correct. What is necessary in these cases is to put in additional policies to mitigate the circumstances which may (not will) lead to those other things happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 Turkmenistan have taken the North Korean approach. All mention of coronavirus is banned and you can be arrested for wearing a face mask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 How is it that covid19 has reached every corner of the globe now, yet Beijing and Shanghai are open for business? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) 31 minutes ago, villa4europe said: The deaths in Germany has jumped dramatically Over 700 now, was below 150 a week ago They have been tracking pretty constantly at just over 1% deaths from those tested positive and that is continuing (currently 775 deaths from 71808 tested positive or a death rate of 1.07%). Edited April 1, 2020 by LondonLax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: How is it that covid19 has reached every corner of the globe now, yet Beijing and Shanghai are open for business? Most of East Asia has avoided having to implement a lockdown outside of the initial Chinese response. Korea, Singapore, Japan have all avoided needing to lock down their populations. That could well change of course but they have a lot of experience with this sort of thing from their dealings with SARS in the early 2000s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted April 1, 2020 Moderator Share Posted April 1, 2020 54 minutes ago, Genie said: Me too, probably just booking venues before all dates are gone Entertainment industry panic buying Promoters and agents bored at home and must do something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, Zatman said: Turkmenistan have taken the North Korean approach. All mention of coronavirus is banned and you can be arrested for wearing a face mask That isn’t true in NK , there is an official directive to wear masks and there were even pictures released via media outlets of the main committee gathering whilst wearing them , as well as shops being disinfected , smuggled footage from one of the border towns shows propaganda vans also belting out messages to wear a mask they claim not to have had any deaths in NK , ( which is almost certainly false )but they do appear to be taking it seriously , I posted back in Feb that they had cancelled the founding day military parade , the first time this has ever happened . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 39 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: yeah this is bothering me too. SOmeone saying "oh but that victim DID have a health condition, he just didn't know about it" brings me no comfort. If it's killing people who have an underlying health condition so mild that you haven't even noticed it, then that could easily be me or my loved ones. For me it's not about that. I get it could be me or my family with underlying health conditions. It's more slight comfort that it isn't turning into a disease that kills perfectly fit and healthy people so easily. I find that worrying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, DCJonah said: It's more slight comfort that it isn't turning into a disease that kills perfectly fit and healthy people so easily The young ones are a sad surprise as it was not advertised to be like this (only the really old or with health problems, on the other hand it is a tiny percentage and there are outliers to these things I assume that no one can explain. I think everyone just needs to be careful no matter how old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post pas5898 Posted April 1, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 1, 2020 (edited) A friend of mine who works on data models and is employed by the gov data analysis team sent the following: ---–------------------ It's all completely pointless to be honest mate. The questions that will never be answered but we need to model are: How many people have died with the virus? And How many have died because of the virus? The data provided by the NHS is just quick observations and the coroner. They are too busy to even bother. There's guys who've contracted the Virus in hospital but died of natural causes and the opposite. Until there's mass antibody tests, ie how many people have had the virus and been fine, we will never be able to even estimate. Everything I'm doing is completely pointless from a pandemic modelling perspective. We are now modelling potential NHS requirements and ensure they have it. If a single person dies from lack of resources the political landscape (conservative) changes forever. To them, how many die is irrelavant. Its how many people die from a lack of resources. Edited April 1, 2020 by pas5898 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddywhack Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 2 hours ago, chrisp65 said: Absolute revolution needed In the fall out from this. Not some shit enquiry followed by a statement saying lessons have already been learnt and measures are now in place blah blah blah. Proper change, from what countries we do business with, to what industry counts as essential, to why we commute and how we want health and social care provided. On this one point, just before our office semi-closed and most of us were being set up to work from home, I said "This should have been done ages ago, I could have been working from home for years" and a colleague scoffed "This isn't a job that requires you to work from home". I replied, "Why is it a job that requires me to be in the office?". No answer. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post sharkyvilla Posted April 1, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 1, 2020 Sainsburys here have started playing music in the store and they followed one of their social distancing tannoy announcements with Stand By Me. They need to revise their playlist a bit methinks. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said: The young ones are a sad surprise as it was not advertised to be like this (only the really old or with health problems, on the other hand it is a tiny percentage and there are outliers to these things I assume that no one can explain. I think everyone just needs to be careful no matter how old. Every year children also die of the flu unfortunately, so that in of itself is not yet remarkable. You have to expect there will be cases of children dying of this virus also unfortunately. Medical authorities will be watching for the numbers of children getting into serious difficulties in order to decide the appropriate response in that age group. For reference these are the rates in the US for the children who die of regular seasonal flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/children.htm Quote While relatively rare, some children die from flu each year. Since 2004-2005, flu-related deaths in children reported to CDC during regular flu seasons have ranged from 37 to 187 deaths. Even though the reported number of deaths during the 2017-2018 flu season was 187, CDC’s mathematical models that account for the underreporting of flu-related deaths in children estimate the actual number was closer to 600. Information about pediatric deaths since the 2004-2005 flu season is available in the interactive pediatric death web application. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, Paddywhack said: On this one point, just before our office semi-closed and most of us were being set up to work from home, I said "This should have been done ages ago, I could have been working from home for years" and a colleague scoffed "This isn't a job that requires you to work from home". I replied, "Why is it a job that requires me to be in the office?". No answer. When businesses realise how much bunce they can save in hiring out smaller office spaces in expensive city centres, they may think differently once this is over. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted April 1, 2020 Share Posted April 1, 2020 28 minutes ago, pas5898 said: How many people have died with the virus? And How many have died because of the virus? There should be loads of people sorting this out by whatever means and cost necessary to do it better than anyone else (As a rough goal), not just for now but for future pandemics. It's pure gold in the fight against it and the quicker supercomputers can have a bit of quality data the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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