January Transfers 2019/20

[VillaHatesMe]

4 minutes ago, hippo said:

Not sure of your point ? - you think Piatek is or might be coming to villa ? - you're perfectly entitled to that opinion. - I don't think he is.

My point is that you're entitled to your opinion, and I'm entitled to my opinion. I don't believe Piatek is going to wind up at Villa, but he has been linked to Villa from multiple outlets during this window. So I dropped in a note to this thread about Villa-related transfer business about a player who has been linked and I got a condescending response from you about it. So I responded to it in a similar fashion.

[Laughable Chimp]

Yeah, so I went back the past 5 seasons and 15 teams and there's pretty much no difference between the points gain of a newly promoted team in the first 19 games of the PL and in the rest of the season. In fact, the mean difference is near 0 points(0.067 to be more exact and yes the standard error is way too high for this to be significant). Only 8 times in the past 5 seasons did a newly promoted team gain more points in the first 19 games than they would in the next 19(the highest being Leicester in 14-15). The other 7 times, they would gain less points.(the smallest being Watford in 15-16)

TLDR, there is no evidence to suggest a newly promoted team would become better over the course of the season as they gain more PL experience nor is there evidence of the opposite.

 

 

Edited January 11, 2020 by Laughable Chimp

[hippo]

1 minute ago, VillaHatesMe said:

My point is that you're entitled to your opinion, and I'm entitled to my opinion. I don't believe Piatek is going to wind up at Villa, but he has been linked to Villa from multiple outlets during this window. So I dropped in a note to this thread about Villa-related transfer business about a player who has been linked and I got a condescending response from you about it. So I responded to it in a similar fashion.

OK - well that clears that up then. Were both agreed Piatek probably isn't joining us.

 

[KentVillan]

8 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Yeah, so I went back the past 5 seasons and 15 teams and there's pretty much no difference between the points gain of a newly promoted team in the first 19 games of the PL and in the rest of the season. In fact, the mean difference is near 0 points(0.067 to be more exact and yes the standard error is way too high for this to be significant). Only 8 times in the past 5 seasons did a newly promoted team gain more points in the first 19 games than they would in the next 19. The other 7 times, they would gain less points.

TLDR, there is no evidence to suggest a newly promoted team would become better over the course of the season as they gain more PL experience nor is there evidence of the opposite.

People aren’t saying that though. They’re saying that a team with loads of new signings should improve as the players gel. Most newly promoted sides keep the same squad that got them promoted and do very little business in the January window.

I’m not saying this is true btw, but I don’t think it’s quite the same point that you’ve looked at. Who were the 8 sides who improved? Would be interesting to look at how busy they were in the transfer market.

Edited January 11, 2020 by KentVillan

[Laughable Chimp]

1 hour ago, KentVillan said:

People aren’t saying that though. They’re saying that a team with loads of new signings should improve as the players gel. Most newly promoted sides keep the same squad that got them promoted and do very little business in the January window.

I’m not saying this is true btw, but I don’t think it’s quite the same point that you’ve looked at. Who were the 8 sides who improved? Would be interesting to look at how busy they were in the transfer market.

Hmm, yeah. That's true. But its much harder to do any kind of objective statistical analysis of something like that. I guess I could go and check if there's a significant difference between the average total incoming and outcoming transfer fees and see if there's a difference between the improved teams and the teams who got worse. 

The 8 improves sides are

1-Wolves 18-19,

2-Cardiff 18-19

3-Fulham 18-19

4-Newcastle 17-18

5-Hull City 16-17

6-Bournemouth 15-16

7-Leicester 14-15

8-Burnley 14-15

Does seem too much work though and I've already wasted a decent amount of time on this. Maybe I'll come back to this later. But if you want to go check it yourself, knock yourself out.

Edit: Made a mistake with some of the seasons numbers. Corrected now.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Laughable Chimp

[TheStagMan]

2 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

The thing that's unforgiving is having one senior first team striker with no PL experience. We pinned our hopes to one man with no idea how he'd handle the league and we can safely say he hasn't been a success. Now it's clear he wasn't good enough and his injury has left us in it. 

It's obvious to anyone we should have been more proactive in getting another striker in this window. Starting PL matches without a dedicated striker is unforgivable. Thus I think it's fair to ask questions about our scouting and recruitment team. 

Fine. You want to ask questions that's your prerogative. 

If you want to ignore circumstances then that is also your prerogative.

However if you recall, at the end of the last window, Smith said that they had been trying to land another striker and had been very close but were not able to get it over the line, and it was going to be a £20m+ signing.

We had 3 strikers at the start of the window, Wesley, Davis and Kodjia. In most of the positions on the pitch we were lacking premier league experience, not just striker. It was indicative of the situation well were in. Bad luck meant one of them got injured early on, and then another just before the window opened.

I for one am glad we did not just go and get anyone, like the journeyman we would have signed in the past, partly the reason we ended up where we were. 

I would rather wait for the right striker who fits with what we are trying to achieve, matches the work ethic and club ethos. The time to panic buy is at the end of the window, not the start.

[Rightdm00]

4 hours ago, TRO said:

Too late now.....but would Wayne Rooney have been a good move, like Robbie Keane was.

DC United is my local club so I catch all their games. He doesn't have the legs anymore. Our pressing was non-existent with him on the floor. Notice with Derby he isn't even playing up top. They have him as a deep lying midfielder. 

[TheStagMan]

2 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Not sure what you're on about. I doubt spurs find it acceptable, but even if they got a class striker fit and we don't, I fully expect them to sign a striker before we do. 

You are creating bullshit here I've never once said. 

Spurs didn't start there season with one quality striker, they had two. You can argue we had zero, but I'll be nice and say one. Our respective situations aren't remotely comparable, and they aren't starting matches without a striker, yet they will still be more proactive than us. That's my bet. 

You are deliberately missing the point so I will leave it there. Carry on with your witch hunt.

[hippo]

Bookies predicting Norwich, Villa and Watford to go down.

We badly need some unexpected points - tommorow would be good !

[MaVilla]

Benteke wasnt in the palace squad against arsenal today.

[hippo]

7 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

Benteke wasnt in the palace squad against arsenal today.

Injured I think !

[Adam2003]

1 hour ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Doesn't always work like that. I remember when people said that about our start, then we went to shit, and now we're kind of getting better but we could just as easily go to shit again.

 

There are actually a lot of newly promoted PL teams who start of relatively well and go to shit after, at least not much more of the opposite exists.

Edit: Actually you know what, I'm gonna go look at the stats to see if this is true. BRB

I’m talking more about individual players. Not many newly promoted teams have as many (young) players NEVER to have played top flight football. That’s why I believe they/we will keep improving. The form dips you cite are part of that.

[sir_gary_cahill]

2 minutes ago, Adam2003 said:

I’m talking more about individual players. Not many newly promoted teams have as many (young) players NEVER to have played top flight football. That’s why I believe they/we will keep improving. The form dips you cite are part of that.

I think this is true, we are evolving under Smith I think, we just need to be patient as fans. Don’t forget it’s Smith’s first season in The Premier League too

[KentVillan]

1 hour ago, Laughable Chimp said:

Hmm, yeah. That's true. But its much harder to do any kind of objective statistical analysis of something like that. I guess I could go and check if there's a significant difference between the average total incoming and outcoming transfer fees and see if there's a difference between the improved teams and the teams who got worse. 

The 8 improves sides are

1-Wolves 18-19,

2-Cardiff 18-19

3-Fulham 18-19

4-Newcastle 17-18

5-Hull City 15-16

6-Bournemouth 14-15

7-Leicester 13-14

8-Burnley 13-14

Does seem too much work though and I've already wasted a decent amount of time on this. Maybe I'll come back to this later. But if you want to go check it yourself, knock yourself out.

 

Thanks for doing all of this.

I guess an objective analysis would be to take the top 11 or top 14 appearances for each team, and then count how many of those players joined that season. This isn't perfect, because perhaps you have a key player who misses a chunk of the season with injury, but starts every game he's available for.

Here's that figure for the 8 clubs you listed, taking the top 11 appearances (yes this is very sad, I don't care):

• Wolves (18-19) - 5 new first team players:
  • Jimenez
  • Moutinho
  • Rui Patricio
  • Jonny
  • Traore
• Cardiff (18-19) - 3 new first team players:
  • Murphy
  • Reid
  • Arter
• Fulham (18-19) - 5 new first team players:
  • Seri
  • Rico
  • Chambers
  • Le Marchand
  • Bryan
• Newcastle (17-18) - 2 new first team players:
  • Joselu
  • Murphy
• Hull (15-16) - they were in the Championship. Do you mean 14-15 or 16-17? They got relegated in both of those seasons.
• Bournemouth (14-15) - they were in the Championship. Assume you mean the following season (15-16), in which case it was 2 new first team players:
  • King
  • Afobe
• Leicester (13-14) - they were in the Championship. Following season (14-15) it was 2 new first team players:
  • Ulloa
  • Cambiasso
• Burnley (13-14) - they were in the Championship. Following season (14-15) they finished 19th? Is this the one?

So I'm not sure what that all proves really, but the equivalent stat for Villa this season (so far) would be:

• 7 new first team players
  • Wesley
  • Heaton
  • Guilbert
  • Targett
  • Nakamba
  • Engels
  • Trezeguet

So we are an outlier in terms of how many new faces are in our first team, even compared with Fulham. And we have Luiz and Konsa in the top 14 league appearances. So 9 out of a typical match day 14 have been new players.

I'd hazard a guess that the average number of new first teamers in the steady performers (or teams who tail off) is lower, but it's a hell of a piece of work to analyse!

Edited January 11, 2020 by KentVillan

[il_serpente]

Apparently, we've nicked West Brom's tea lady on a free.   It's a start.

[Villarocker]

I think the only business we will do is up front. Kodjia is going so we absolutely need 2 strikers. I think it'll be Benteke on loan plus a permanent signing of Coman, Mitrovic or Gayle. 

Edited January 11, 2020 by Villarocker

[sir_gary_cahill]

2 minutes ago, Villarocker said:

I think the only business we will do is up front. Kodjia is going so we absolutely need 2 strikers. I think it'll be Benteke on loan plus a permanent signing of Coman, Mitrovic or Gayle. 

Kingsley Coman?

[Elton]

23 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

 

Pepe Reina liked a Villa Twitter post about tomorrow’s game, so this one must be close.

Edit: not sure why that quote inserted..

Edited January 11, 2020 by Elton

[Villarocker]

Just now, sir_gary_cahill said:

Kingsley Coman?

No mate, Florinel Coman. He's a 21 year old Romanian who plays left wing and is currently top goalscorer (10) and joint second assists (7) in the Romanian top flight. He's 6ft and dubbed the Romanian Mbappe. 

[alreadyexists]

 

Not heard of him, will do some googling and edit this in a min.

Hes got a roughly 1 in 2 goal to game ratio... but I think that’s in French Ligue 2... which is presumably similar level to the Doc Martens Conference?

Edited January 11, 2020 by alreadyexists