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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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We're still not guaranteed 5th either so it's not a foregone conclusion that we'll play WBA. We could be facing Leeds if not in the semis then the final, so we need to show that we can beat them and aren't afraid. Maybe rest players for Norwich, but go all out against Leeds I say.

I can see WBA dropping points against Derby on the last day so a win against Leeds makes things very interesting. You can't underestimate a home advantage in a second leg when there is no away goals rule. Put it this way, 6-4 against Blackburn wouldn't have happened for us at Ewood Park.

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I watched Leeds on Monday and I thought they were rank. They looked flat, ponderous. I know Brentford can give anyone a game when they fancy it, but Leeds seem to have lost that other gear. 

A few pages ago I wanted to avoid them at all costs, but watching them fall apart like this gives me pause for thought. They're certainly no Fulham. 

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50 minutes ago, WakefieldVillan said:

This is exactly where I am. I don't particularly think the players need the rest but God forbid we lose Jack or McGinn for the play offs, through picking up an injury at Leeds/Norwich it would be devastating.

I think Leeds will be resting players if Sheffield Utd win on Saturday so I think we can still field a reasonably strong side and try keep the winning run going. Look at it another way, players who haven't played much will be chomping at the bit to stake a claim for a play-off place! 

Absolutely with you on this. If we start with Jack against Leeds they will lay into him from the start. The potential disadvantage of losing him far outweighs the advantage of keeping a winning run going. Plus if they are kicking Jack, there's a considerable risk SJM could get sent off. 

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I’d rest some players. You never know what could happen in the play offs too, we need the whole squad mentally ready so a couple of appearances for Tommy, House, Hutton, Henri even BB at a push would be useful. I’d rest a few for sure. 

Leave Tammy till the first leg of the semi finals. Agree that McGinn needs a rest.    

Edited by deeps
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1 hour ago, Junxs said:

Theres no away goals rule, so I don't think it matters as much as people make out in that scenario. Usually the away teams try to score one then sit back in the first leg. 

With no away goal rule, it levels it out. If youre playing home first it doesnt matter if you concede as long as you win taking a lead into the 2nd leg.

I know there is no away goal rule. I think knowing what you need to achieve with your own crowd right behind you and on your own pitch is a big advantage.  It's called home advantage for a reason. Second leg is the most crucial, best to have it at home. 

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1 hour ago, richp999 said:

Yes its a massive decision.. One I'm glad I don't have to make. 

For me I wouldn't risk mings/jack/mcgin/Abraham. 

I get the continuity thing, but how would you be feeling if jack gets taken out vs Leeds to miss the rest of the season.. Gutted I imagine.. 

I think if its decided they are to be rested, at least for most of those 2 games, it won't harm confidence if it's already been sorted out. 

The players will be aware we are coasting through those games eyeing the playoffs. 

Sure I'd prefer to win both, play everyone and go into the playoffs with a fully fit team.. But the thought of playing those playoff games without jack (or one of the others) would really worry me.. I don't think it's worth the risk

 

 

 

 

I agree all that...... But I think you've missed the Catch 22 reference. 

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20 minutes ago, deeps said:

 a couple of appearances for Tommy, House, Hutton, Henri even BB at a push would be useful. 

Good thinking.  Definitely start Henri for Jack, and give some or all of the others you mention at least 30 mins as well. Is Axel fit?

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1 hour ago, Keyblade said:

We're still not guaranteed 5th either so it's not a foregone conclusion that we'll play WBA. We could be facing Leeds if not in the semis then the final, so we need to show that we can beat them and aren't afraid. Maybe rest players for Norwich, but go all out against Leeds I say.

I can see WBA dropping points against Derby on the last day so a win against Leeds makes things very interesting. You can't underestimate a home advantage in a second leg when there is no away goals rule. Put it this way, 6-4 against Blackburn wouldn't have happened for us at Ewood Park.

We could well be guaranteed 5th by the time we play on Sunday as Derby play Bristol City on Saturday.

If Derby win they could still overtake us but they would need to win all 3, achieve a +12 goal swing and we would need to lose both of our games

A draw  would guarantee 5th.

Bristol city can only draw level with us on points if they win all 3 games and we lose both of ours but they would still need a +16 goal swing to go ahead.

 

Honestly, Im not entirely sure i wouldn't rather finish 6th and play Leeds over 2 legs rather than a one off game. Don't forget we were 2 up against them before throwing it away and ultimately losing in the 95th minute but our team that day was a bag of shite comapred to now, especially at the back. We were conceding 2 goals per game on average at the time.

This was the line-up that ran away to a 2-0 lead inside 20 minutes......

Nyland, Elmo, Bree, Chester, Hutton, Whelan, Kodjia, McGinn, Hourihane, Bolasie, Abraham.

Our hardly game changing subs that day were Thor, El Ghazi & Hogan....

 

Derby have already smashed the baggies 4-1 this season and play them again on the final day. Win that and they would have the upper hand going into a 2 leg tie against them a week later

Edited by LakotaDakota
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Looking at the dates and times game A is at 12.30ko and 5.15 for game b. I think they are obviously going to put our one early ko as its a local derby which sucks as atmosphere be so much better for evening game and also easier for us travelling from outside brum. 

Edited by Demitri_C
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9 hours ago, dont_do_it_doug. said:

I watched Leeds on Monday and I thought they were rank. They looked flat, ponderous. I know Brentford can give anyone a game when they fancy it, but Leeds seem to have lost that other gear. 

A few pages ago I wanted to avoid them at all costs, but watching them fall apart like this gives me pause for thought. They're certainly no Fulham. 

I was thinking the same thing. They looked so flat. It felt like Brentford would score from every break.

Whoever finishes 6th will fancy their chances against them over 2 legs.  We may have the harder tie against Albion.

Edited by Vive_La_Villa
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8 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Looking at the dates and times game A is at 12.30ko and 5.15 for game b. I think they are obviously going to put our one early ko as its a local derby which sucks as atmosphere be so much better for evening game and also easier for us travelling from outside brum. 

I’d have thought games A and B are pre determined by final position. Our game being B as things currently stand.

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1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I’d have thought games A and B are pre determined by final position. Our game being B as things currently stand.

According to some sites I've read the efl make decision on police advice. You would imagine the west Midlands police won't definitely not want this game taking place at 5.15 being a local derby. 

Just hope we don't see idiotic scenes at VP like last few years when the game wasn't even over and some fool's ran on the pitch. 

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Yes I'd go with the big resting of players too. Its such a long demanding season and if we are in the position to freshen up and give key players a chance to come back better we should absolutely be taking that. 

I think defensively I'm not too worried. I'd almost like them to get the measure of people they may well be facing in the play offs. Midfield and attack though I'd keep my powder dry. McGinn, Jack, El Gazi, Tammy, Whelan all rested for me. 

Be good to get minutes in Lansbury, Andre Green, Hutton, Kodjia, Davis etc they could all have a crucial  role to play in the play off games. 

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  Matches Wins Draws Losses Pts avg Goals
Total results 44 20 15 9 1,70 80:58 26.586
Home 22 11 8 3 1,86 49:34 33.281
Away 22 9 7 6 1,55 31:24 19.891

 

Judging by our record this season I think we're fine whether we finish 4th or 5th tbh. I'm starting to think finishing 6th might not be so bad either. Leeds looked really strung out against Brentford and are up for grabs.

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1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I’d have thought games A and B are pre determined by final position. Our game being B as things currently stand.

Correct

I think as Dem said they can be changed, but as a rule Match A is 3rd vs 6th and Match B is 4th vs 5th

i.e. our second leg will be the Wednesday as it stands

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