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jackbauer24

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About jackbauer24

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    Official Food Taster

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  1. According to the BBC article it is true; The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with the coronavirus infection in their body - because it is a notifiable disease cases have to be reported. But what the figures do not tell us is to what extent the virus is causing the death. It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else.
  2. Not even that necessarily. It could be they died of whatever causes would have killed them. They just happened to have Covid19 at the time. It's entirely possible someone with cancer who was asymptomatic with Covid19 died and was still counted in those numbers.
  3. As has been mentioned several times now, this gruesome count is at best misleading and, at worst, scaremongering. Every day approximately 1500 die in the UK. So, of these 569 deaths, how many were outside that 'normality'. Another words how many people are dying BECAUSE of Covid19 and how many are dying WITH Covid19. That is by far the most relevant data that is needed, even if I suspect many of these cases it's hard to say primary cause. It might be a more relevant indication of infection spread over mortality rates. If you assume everybody in the country has the virus then 1500 people should be expected to die from it daily. If those 1500 are still dying but 'only' 500 have corona then you could argue only a third of the population is currently infected. All very crude maths.
  4. I checked the sources directly at Gov.uk. They're correct. So can someone please explain this please?! This is before the lockdown too. I don't mind the lockdown at all, it's not that much different from my normal life! What is bugging me is I don't understand what I'm missing, can someone please explain it to me. Surely these figures should have been particularly bad as there's no impact from the lockdown in this data. I'm not being obnoxious, I just don't understand and I want to. Everywhere, and everyone, seems to be super panicking and I can't really see the reason if I'm honest. If you question the data you get attacked as being unfeeling or uneducated (which I'm half expecting to be on here!) but I'm genuinely asking out of confusion. I'm not going around flouting lockdown or licking door handles or anything but I'm struggling to understand. There are always odd stories of sudden deaths from seemingly innocuous illnesses. People die every year from flu, leg breaks or even playing football that seemed to have no underlying issues. These are being highlighted as another sign of the incoming apocalypse. Yes, I recognise every number is a person. No, I'm not putting economy ahead of lives (I marginally prefer lockdown life personally!) I just genuinely don't understand. What am I missing?
  5. First movie you remember seeing? - Wind in the Willows (1983) at my Grandparents house. Scariest film? - Lord of the Rings Animated (1978) Nothing has scared me as much as that first look at red eyed Ringwraiths as a youngster. Funniest film? - Blues Brothers (1980) Aged brilliantly too, just so dry. Movie that made you cry the most? - Me before You (2016) Maybe it got to me personally rather than the film itself Film you loved as a kid and think is shit now? - Every Indiana Jones film. Film people don't rate but you love? - Robin Hood Prince of Thieves (1991) Film people love but you don't rate? - Practically anything that's won Best film at the Oscars! Worst film? - Daredevil (2003) Only film I've ever left the cinema during it. And I though Colin Farrall was badly acting his accent. It was his accent. Film that means something special to you? - Muppets Christmas Carol (1992) Family. And singing "there's goes MRS Humbug" to my mum with my siblings! Film you relate to the most? - John Wick (2014) Touch my (cat) and you die. Sexiest film? - Wonder Woman (2017) I could watch Gal Gadot all day... Strange stiffies weird wide ons (like things your found sexy in a film like the midget from total recall or lady from lady and the tramp)? - Elsa flicking her hair and changing her dress during 'Let it go' in Frozen (2013) Best case of cinematography (not your favourite more like Lawrence of Arabia where it's a masterpiece but it's not a film you'd watch loads)? - LOTR The Fellowship, it's just beautiful... Actually all three are (2001-3) Favourite film? - Back to the Future (1985) What one film would you take to heaven with you (doesn't have to be any from the list)? - Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975) just for sh*ts and giggles!!
  6. You're right is many respects. I was tired and fed up when I wrote it. I would say, possibly behind front line NHS workers, we will be the at most risk group. All the others have taken some form of action to mitigate the risks, be that dropping deliveries at the door to avoid contact or wearing more protective gear and largely separating from the public. On the 1st February I was teaching a class of snotty, huggy children that have no clue how to maintain personal hygiene. Tomorrow, despite being closed, I'll be doing exactly the same thing. As for the babysitiing... I think someone already covered that! Dealing with their educational, emotional and physical issues is day to day mate - not virus related! On Friday I had to teach, put in place procedures and report a quite horrific disclosure and deal with one kid who threw up everywhere and another who crapped themselves. That's normal!! But I'm not saying it's a competition, hey look at me I'm better than xyz, just in a moment of tiredness I felt my colleagues and I were being overlooked. And much like the NHS I'm guessing the vulnerable group are still being 'encouraged' to keep working!
  7. Can I just point out we haven't actually closed our schools. We've reduced their capacity. I, and everyone of my colleagues, will be going in this week to a group of 30+ children, approximately 45 parents, working with a daily skeleton staff of approximately ten to care for these children with no chance of social distancing or protection from any kind from infection. We will be increasing our hours to offer wraparound care and staying open through the holidays. If one person gets infected then all the staff do as they will come in to contact with each other within that rota. It's an improvement from Friday, but largely the risk to me and my colleagues remains unchanged - we will deal with 30 kids as usual and all get infected if one person in the school does. My wife will, as management, be going in to her school every day with similar numbers. Combined we're going to be coming in to contact with 200 people a day in a confined space with what would be considered super spreaders - children. And we'll do it with a smile, endless energy and a mask of positivity to keep the children unaware of our own personal fears. But we're closed and safe apparently. Might be wrong to state this aloud, but we're feeling a little under appreciated. Have seen loads of, rightful, support for NHS workers, delivery drivers, shop workers and all those other 'key workers'. We're the only group that will get zero protection from this, no masks, no scrubs, no avoiding the public, no changes whatsoever to our normal routines - in fact an extension of them. Sorry, feeling a little fed up tonight.
  8. I think it would be fool-hardy not to listen to actual experts (where is Gove these days?!) but it's fair to balance up the questions or theories that have a positive slant rather than just revel in the negativity and doom. Both extremes are harmful. I personally, like most people who can't dictate policy or have a very layman's view of the situation, have a few positive theories or views I like to believe or wonder - without doing anything that would risk others if I'm wrong. Firstly, I genuinely believe that the death rate may prove to be far far smaller than it currently is. Obviously each statistic is a person but looking purely in a mathematical way the current mortality rate seems quite skewed - if only those feeling bad enough to seek help are tested then mortality rates will always appear higher. Forgetting politics/reporting - IF Germany's mortality rate is 0.3% then that's equally as important a statistic as the other extremes. Furthermore, how sure are we these are EXTRA deaths? Are they a direct result of Covid19 any more than flu might hit vulnerable groups. Or, even more extreme, did they just die anyway and happen to have virus at time? Secondly, we're further along the road now than the initial panic of "what's this?!". Earlier identification, some procedures in place (less need to test multiple theories) and a few promising leads with either current medication (I read malaria drugs somewhere?) or even vaccines - yes they 'should' go through proper procedures but maybe this will be relaxed if the risk is too high to delay - and maybe all these strands start to take big bites out of it's impact. Thirdly, ventilators are now one of the sole focuses of industry so hopefully those numbers, coupled with hotel beds and increased NHS staffing will considerably lessen the impact this could have had on our otherwise under resourced service. I believe people average 2-3 weeks on a ventilator if needed so perhaps we can keep this rolling and cater for most. Finally, there are some positives to focus on. Pollution has plummeted (this in turn may save lives; did read an argument in a leading paper that we actually may end up in a net positive death rate due to all deaths from pollution), people are re-evaluating their impact on the world and it might be the seismic shock the world needed to look at how we deal with everything, politically, financially and morally. Yes there's a lot of bad stuff going on, yes take precautions and listen to advice and experts. But don't sink in to a depression about it, try to look for hope. You'll feel better for it! If you can't change anything, I think looking for good news is just as valid as looking for depressing stuff.
  9. There is talk of an exit strategy, or more precisely what that exit strategy would look like. We are now in a position where we largely know how this virus works, we just can't stop it. We can also largely control it if we have access to appropriate resources/medical equipment in good time. Those two factors seem to suggest the route out of it, on the scale of all this, is relatively simple. With companies building ventilators or boffins extending the use of single machines to cater for multiple patients then all we need to do is close the gap between the expected number needing ICUs and the number of beds currently available. Set up hotels to create the beds, get all focus on the right equipment and then lift the closures and deal with the influx. With greater knowledge to spot signs of early symptoms the numbers would surely plummet. This ignores herd immunity which might have some effect, possible medicinal breakthroughs or vaccines. How long would it take to close that gap? It seems that largely it is the severity of numbers rather than the severity of virus itself. Or is that an overly simple view point? I can't remember where I read it, but I think it said we need 20k more ventilators. How long would that take?
  10. I agree. When I first mentioned it, it was purely on a moral standpoint as it's a tricky one. I'd feel guilty taking money off someone who really needs it when I don't. But I can also understand the flip side of the argument. But now there might be financial packages in place to protect them I'd feel much happier about not paying for my non-service! Might be worth having a chat with them over next few days. On a side note a lot of schools have been caught off guard by today's announcement and are scrambling. We'd prepared for open, we'd prepared for closed. But no-one knows what this halfway house is and how it works practically. We don't have a list of kid's parent's jobs!
  11. Well if they're closed then clearly you don't! I just meant personally I'd try to support something if I'd already budgeted for it. You're going to be in a relatively rare position where your wages are guaranteed and your outgoings are going to plummet. That's lucky for want of a better word. You're going to be much better off at the end of this. Those nursery workers might lose their jobs/business. That's all, I'm not trying to be pious about it. Edit: as I understand it, now they are closed by government effectively they might be covered by whatever financial support they get.
  12. That's a complicated call. If you're still guaranteed your wage and it's a private nursery then I'd recommend carrying on paying regardless of whether you're using the service at the moment. Those independent child care facilities will collapse/ carers won't get paid if you all pull your funds. However, if it's school funded I certainly wouldn't worry about paying and if you are financially struggling/nervous then you have to look after your family first.
  13. This is kind of where I am. I have no problem with eating in restaurants, of going shopping or even sitting in a cinema. None of these come even close to being as risky to me personally, and my close family, as going in to work at a school every day with hundreds of parents on the playground and carrier monkey kids everywhere! For me there is no point worrying about it. Doctors and nurses can at least go round with scrubs, gloves and masks on. If I'm not going to be protected by the government, then I don't really feel any urgency to stay away from individuals on a personal level. Obviously this overlooks the fact I would stay away purely to protect others because I'm likely going to become a risk to them. Actually I'm probably low risk, but plenty of teachers/school workers aren't. Teachers are being used as collateral damage more than anyone (medically, not financially).
  14. The issue is more when you make decisions. If you close down the country WHEN we reach capacity then you're already too late. For all you know, all your family, friends and colleagues might already be infected and this will become apparent over the next few days/weeks. The question is where on the scale is a closure needed? I'd suggest people won't really care that much if Boris is saying it's fine to work but not to socialise. I'm being told it'd be unwise to go in to a pub and sit a meter or two away from, hopefully, clean adults but that it's perfectly safe for me to go to work with 400 odd snotty nosed, handsy, sneezing coughing kids. It's kind of a mixed message as far as I'm concerned. Where am I more likely to get ill and, more importantly, pass it on to others/ my family?
  15. Thanks for the support. That's not the link to their giving page though!! This is currently still on although a postponement would not surprise me. If anyone would like to donate, please do so. I imagine a few people will be suffering from mental health issues for a variety of reasons in the next few months and your support could really help them. https://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/RussellGoodman2020
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