Sam3773 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, Django_Zooms said: May as well switch to 18/19 Promotion Charge. August’s opening match: Steer-Elmo, Terry, Samba, Taylor-Albrighton, Bjarnason, Hourihane, Adomah-O’Hare-Grabban Subs: Siegriest, Hepburn-Murphy, Suliman, Lansbury, 3 loanees or academies. Stoke 3 (Shawcross, Crouch 2) Villa 1 (Loanee, possibly Solanke) You can't get promoted from the Premier League. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesbuchanan Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 For what it's worth, I just re-ran the simulation (including Fulham's win), and we're now down to a 0.8% chance (about 1 in 131). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alakagom Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 So you're saying there's a chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewie Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 27 minutes ago, Alakagom said: So you're saying there's a chance A 0.8% chance, to be exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveAV1 Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 7 hours ago, Chewie said: A 0.8% chance, to be exact This is the most exciting news I’ve heard in weeks! If the chances of winning the lottery are say a million to one, then our chance of gaining automatic promotion is 800,000 times greater! Thanks for the stats James. Now let’s bring this baby home!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 Fulham really looked nervy last night and can be thankful for poor officiating. They now need a point from their last day visit to Small Heath who we can but hope will still need a result to stay up and want one. If Hull are as committed today as Sunderland were last night and Cardiff are as nervous on the last day against Reading as Fulham were we could just be a win against a brittle Derby as well as one against Millwall away from it actually happening. If not, we will have to wait until the playoffs to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 If we take care of business today, and Cardiff fail to win, is going to be an exciting final day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 I still think the chances are zero of this happening as I think blose will be safe by then and they won't want to do us absolutely zero favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 So we need the following to happen. We beat Derby Cardiff fail to win at Hull. Birmingham lose to qpr Burton beat Bolton or Barnsley beat Brentford Only then is there hope going in to the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyrusr Posted April 28, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted April 28, 2018 52 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: So we need the following to happen. We beat Derby Cardiff fail to win at Hull. Birmingham lose to qpr Burton beat Bolton or Barnsley beat Brentford Only then is there hope going in to the last day. Really only the first 2 bits are necessary. The rest would be the cherry on top. Realistically automatics have been out of the picture since QPR/Bolton. Sadly that was our chance to show we were able to take 2nd. It has since then been all about the playoffs IMO. Fulham have taken that 2nd spot and I think they have deserved it. Gutsy have played better football, particularly since Christmas. Cardiff are thugs and maybe, just maybe are finally being found out. If Hull beat them then I think they are done and I think they won’t even make play off finals. They have held 2nd for so long and to lose it now, it will be mentally destructive. I can see Boro/Derby/Brentford/Millwall whoever beating them over 2 legs. However, what is exceptionally fun is that we are coming to last 2 games of the season and actually having something positive to play for! That has not happened for a very long time and actually is a nice feeling! Then I look at the play off teams. What we have shown over the season is that when it comes to the big matches, we perform. Every team that could be in those play offs we can beat either over 2 legs or at Wembley. The only team I think we could struggle with is Fulham, but even then, 90 minutes at Wembley? I think that would be a cracking game of football! We just need to make sure it’s the proper team that comes out, not the one that thinks they have won it without a ball being kicked. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Demitri_C said: I still think the chances are zero of this happening as I think blose will be safe by then and they won't want to do us absolutely zero favors. I think they are 0.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 I think what last night reaffirmed is that whoever we face in the play offs if we play as well as we can we will win. I know some are worried about facing Fulham but I don't see them being a match for us if we are on our game. They did beat us at their place this season but we were without Adomah, Grealish and Kodjia. Had those three played the result could have been very different. It should also be remembered we have beaten them this season. Bring whoever on. Cardiff, Fulham, Boro , Derby, Millwall it doesn't matter. If we look after what we can control, which is our performance, then we will prevail. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turvontour Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 I'm confused as to how we would want the next couple of games to pan out, in terms of who we face in playoffs. Its made odder that we are playing two of three teams that our likely to be our opponents. I suppose we just win our games and what will be will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 Fulham were shite last night against the worst team in the league. If that's the team to fear in the playoffs then **** bring it on I say. Our record in big games against alleged good teams has been superb in 2018, I'm confident of promotion whichever way it comes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveAV1 Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 1 hour ago, terrytini said: I think they are 0.8% Or 800,000 times better than winning the lottery . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 4 hours ago, John said: Fulham really looked nervy last night and can be thankful for poor officiating. They now need a point from their last day visit to Small Heath who we can but hope will still need a result to stay up and want one. If Hull are as committed today as Sunderland were last night and Cardiff are as nervous on the last day against Reading as Fulham were we could just be a win against a brittle Derby as well as one against Millwall away from it actually happening. If not, we will have to wait until the playoffs to do it. Wouldn't SHA have to win about 3-0 aswell as Fulham are about 5-6 goals ahead of us on GD. Them just losing to SHA wouldn't be enough. Before yesterday it was a very slim chance, now it's a next to no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 1 hour ago, markavfc40 said: I think what last night reaffirmed is that whoever we face in the play offs if we play as well as we can we will win. I know some are worried about facing Fulham but I don't see them being a match for us if we are on our game. They did beat us at their place this season but we were without Adomah, Grealish and Kodjia. Had those three played the result could have been very different. It should also be remembered we have beaten them this season. Bring whoever on. Cardiff, Fulham, Boro , Derby, Millwall it doesn't matter. If we look after what we can control, which is our performance, then we will prevail. Or Brentford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom_avfc Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 1 minute ago, VillaChris said: Wouldn't SHA have to win about 3-0 aswell as Fulham are about 5-6 goals ahead of us on GD. Them just losing to SHA wouldn't be enough. Before yesterday it was a very slim chance, now it's a next to no chance. We need to make up a 5 goal swing over the two games. A win by a couple of goals today and then either us or SHA winning by two would do it. Not going to happen but it’s not a ridiculous GD to make up. Having 5 results go our way is where the issue is going to be! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, tom_avfc said: We need to make up a 5 goal swing over the two games. A win by a couple of goals today and then either us or SHA winning by two would do it. Not going to happen but it’s not a ridiculous GD to make up. Having 5 results go our way is where the issue is going to be! For a start I don't see us beating Milwall, less so by a couple of goals. Today will be tight aswell. If we had Burton or Sunderland different story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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