U.S. Politics

[nick76]

1 hour ago, HKP90 said:

 

I hope you guys are right. I think he'll get the nomination, and will win a second term if i'm honest. 

All the stats, data I’ve seen suggests that there is virtually no chance Trump wins a second term.  I said before the midterms a number of pages back that the Senate would stay with the Democrats and I thought the Republicans would win the house with a forty seat swing after seeing the pre election data and watching both sides of the aisle commentaries.  Dems kept the Senate and Republicans did even worse than I thought in the House and will likely only have a single digit seat majority so roughly a ten seat swing.

I can see Trump winning the nomination because there is too much spineless souls in the Republican Party but no way he wins the election.  If he is the candidate, it galvanises the Dem voters more than anything, most independents won’t vote for him and a proportion of Republicans dislike him enough not to vote at all in the election for the top of the ticket.  

It’s the biggest problem for Trump that beyond his base he struggles and he doesn’t care, he doesn’t reach out to the moderate Republicans and in fact is quite nasty to them, so much so they just don’t vote Republican for the top of the ticket.  If Trump is on the ticket, you can bet Dems will be turning out and voting against him.

The only way Republicans win the 2024 Presidency is a nominee that isn’t Trump. Even then if Trump isn’t the nominee in the end he’s going to burn down the Republican Party on his way out.  

The only way I see Trump winning and it’s a really small chance is if Biden doesn’t run for whatever reason like he pulls out due to health and the Dems choose a candidate that really galvanises the Republican base.

Edited November 22, 2022 by nick76

[Delphinho123]

49 minutes ago, nick76 said:

All the stats, data I’ve seen suggests that there is virtually no chance Trump wins a second term.  I said before the midterms a number of pages back that the Senate would stay with the Democrats and I thought the Republicans would win the house with a forty seat swing after seeing the pre election data and watching both sides of the aisle commentaries.  Dems kept the Senate and Republicans did even worse than I thought in the House and will likely only have a single digit seat majority so roughly a ten seat swing.

I can see Trump winning the nomination because there is too much spineless souls in the Republican Party but no way he wins the election.  If he is the candidate, it galvanises the Dem voters more than anything, most independents won’t vote for him and a proportion of Republicans dislike him enough not to vote at all in the election for the top of the ticket.  

It’s the biggest problem for Trump that beyond his base he struggles and he doesn’t care, he doesn’t reach out to the moderate Republicans and in fact is quite nasty to them, so much so they just don’t vote Republican for the top of the ticket.  If Trump is on the ticket, you can bet Dems will be turning out and voting against him.

The only way Republicans win the 2024 Presidency is a nominee that isn’t Trump. Even then if Trump isn’t the nominee in the end he’s going to burn down the Republican Party on his way out.  

The only way I see Trump winning and it’s a really small chance is if Biden doesn’t run for whatever reason like he pulls out due to health and the Dems choose a candidate that really galvanises the Republican base.

I watched an interview with a pollster on CNN and he framed it quite nicely by saying Trump would lose simply because enough people dislike him so much that they would vote against him regardless of who is running for the Dems (if that makes sense). 
However, if DeSantis were to run, it's likely he wouldn't garner the same hate and people would at least entertain his ideas and views. 

Trumps race is run. I'm convinced the only reason he wants a second term is because it will help him avoid spending the rest of his days in prison. 

[ml1dch]

42 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

However, if DeSantis were to run, it's likely he wouldn't garner the same hate and people would at least entertain his ideas and views. 

He'd have to actually win the nomination though. I saw some national polling the other day which was something like Trump 48%, DeSantis 28%, Pence 8%, Cruz 6%.

I've no idea how accurate American polling is compared to the UK, but that suggests it's not going to be easy to keep Trump from being the nominee. 

And you'd imagine it's not exactly going to be a clean fight. I could easily see DeSantis doing a Boris Johnson and sitting this one out, then offering himself as the saviour of the party when things are even worse next time.

[AXD]

2 hours ago, nick76 said:

The only way I see Trump winning and it’s a really small chance is if Biden doesn’t run for whatever reason like he pulls out due to health and the Dems choose a candidate that really galvanises the Republican base.

That would have to be AOC, but I doubt she's running (or allowed to due to age) or Hillary. Other than that, I don't think there are that many Dems that are a hard 'no' for republicans.

[El Zen]

35 minutes ago, AXD said:

That would have to be AOC, but I doubt she's running (or allowed to due to age) or Hillary. Other than that, I don't think there are that many Dems that are a hard 'no' for republicans.

Ilhan Omar, probably. Not that she’s got a chance or will run anyway. 

[Seat68]

23 minutes ago, El Zen said:

Ilhan Omar, probably. Not that she’s got a chance or will run anyway. 

I could be wrong but not US born if I recall. 

[bickster]

1 hour ago, AXD said:

That would have to be AOC, but I doubt she's running (or allowed to due to age)

It's the first Presidential Election she qualifies for. Currently 33 and birthday in October. She would be 35 by the time elected

[nick76]

51 minutes ago, Seat68 said:

I could be wrong but not US born if I recall. 

Yep, Article II section I says she can’t.  I still think Ted Cruz might have had problems if he had won the Republican primary in 2016 being Canadian born even though he was born to US parents.  Not legally apparently but politically it could’ve been a farce.

[sne]

So apparently Kanye West is running again with the help of right wing wackadoodle Milo Yiannopoulos

[El Zen]

1 hour ago, Seat68 said:

I could be wrong but not US born if I recall. 

Yeah, you might be right. She might also be too young (can’t be arsed to check.)

I was just thinking about Dems that would properly piss off MAGA heads. 

[OutByEaster?]

Surely Biden won't run again?

.

 

[Seat68]

2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Surely Biden won't run again?

.

 

At his age he would be happy walking. 

[nick76]

2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Surely Biden won't run again?

.

 

Already said he is hence Garland naming a special prosecutor for Trump to maintain independence because Biden is his boss and running and Trump is running for the other party.  Garland mentioned this reasoning in his speech as one of many reasons for special prosecutor.

[sne]

3 minutes ago, Seat68 said:

At his age he would be happy walking. 

Leaders of the free world.

Edited November 22, 2022 by sne

[nick76]

2 minutes ago, Seat68 said:

At his age he would be happy walking. 

Trump did run and he couldn’t walk down a military ramp

[OutByEaster?]

So you can't be President at 34 because you're a bit green, but being 82 is fine?

American democracy never ceases to amaze.

I guess in 1787 they weren't expecting people to live this long.

 

 

 

[CVByrne]

Is America really a functioning democracy anymore? I'm too used to Europe where we just vote in Governments and then they pass the laws they need to. 

In USA you can barely pass any laws even if you hold both houses and Presidency. 

Anyway, Biden wins of he faces Trump and loses if he faces DeSantis. Republicans know this. 

[sidcow]

4 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

Surely Biden won't run again?

.

 

 

[nick76]

12 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Anyway, Biden wins of he faces Trump and loses if he faces DeSantis. Republicans know this. 

I’m not sure I’m totally 100% with this.  

DeSantis still needs to expand his nationwide support but he has a good two years to do it but he still has work to do especially with moderate Republicans not from his state.

The main thing though is Trump is going to destroy DeSantis as much as possible over the coming 2 years if DeSantis throws his hat in the ring.  That could be enough to railroad DeSantis winning the Presidency if he does become the Republican nominee.  

If there was no Trump and a straight fight between DeSantis and Biden you’d think DeSantis would win or at least it would be more down to policies and ideologies swinging the vote either way but given Trump is currently in the mix, I think the Republicans have a uphill battle whoever their nominee is.

[Chindie]

13 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Is America really a functioning democracy anymore? I'm too used to Europe where we just vote in Governments and then they pass the laws they need to. 

In USA you can barely pass any laws even if you hold both houses and Presidency. 

Anyway, Biden wins of he faces Trump and loses if he faces DeSantis. Republicans know this. 

The US is a deeply conservative country in many respects. By which I mean it doesn't embrace change easily. It's systems are designed to ensure that situation, that to make big changes nationally you need overwhelming support and in some cases, long lasting support, which basically doesn't happen due to the divide in the country between the coasts and cities and everywhere else. On the plus side though, states can and do make more meaningful change individually - hence California and weed.

Basically the country works on the basis of things rarely causing seismic change.