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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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5 minutes ago, zab6359 said:

Champions legue means a top 4 finish, out of our reach long term but maybe a one off like them (Newcastle).

It's a real shame the newcastle takeover happened.

They are blocking that spot.

Because I think Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd will be difficult to move.

If Newcastle spend 150M every summer they just aren't catchable.

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I'm hoping that the buzz round the fans, players and club as the season comes to an end will give us that extra confidence when next season commences. You quite often see it carry on at least to start with. It happened to us after our first season and the survival push and an extreme example being Leicester who had that good run to get out of trouble and actually managed to maintain it to the end.

Obviously winning the league might be a bit of a reach but if we can start well who knows what we could achieve.

Thinking optimistically having more teams trying to challenge for the top 4/top 7 could actually be a benefit rather than a hinderance. Than if it was just us trying to break into the Sky6.

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5 minutes ago, Tommo_b said:

Isn’t it typical though, just when things start coming together for the Villa, the premier league shifts to having 9 teams who could potentially read the top 4. 

All the more sweeter when we make it. Eff em all. I don’t go with the missus to do some shopping when we play the scum 6 + SaudiCastle - I relish those games. I think we can beat them all at least once next season.

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Obviously dependent on what happens during the summer, but as things stand now I reckon Man City vs Utd fight for the title. I think Arsenal will be more like the inconsistent second-half of this season team, Liverpool have an overhaul needed and Newcastle will be having to cope with CL - they will all be thereabouts, but beatable and with the right incomings I fancy us to be up there with them for 3rd to 6th.

Brighton will lose players and who knows, maybe DeZerbi, but will be pushing for junior Europe. Chelsea will surely be better, but Poch has a massive job to turn that around - junior Europe. And Spurs - no manager, no Kane, Levy - I'm going the same there.

If it does get to 5 CL places, we should be in with a shout, but it's (as ever) going to be tough.

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On 30/05/2023 at 02:56, Pinebro said:

A lot of factors next season.

We still don't know who will be the spurs manager.

Poch at Chelsea.

Will Liverpool carry on with the form at the back end of this season?

I think it's hopeful to think the 'big 6' will be as bad next season.

We should still be able to challenge though.

It's also possible that City will be sanctioned and ineligible for the CL by the end of next year. (Not necessarily likely, but a significant possibility.)

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35 minutes ago, TomC said:

It's also possible that City will be sanctioned and ineligible for the CL by the end of next year. (Not necessarily likely, but a significant possibility.)

Good joke 🥴

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30 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Good joke 🥴

Like I said, it's not necessarily likely. But while the Sky 6 may have strong influence with the league, this is one case where the rest of the Sky 6 are aligned with everyone else against City. Sooner or later, they will reel City in. It's just a matter of when.

 

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I think Emery will definately want us challenging for the top 4 and I don't think it's impossible or unrealistic.

We just have to look at the form table since he took over and we were already there or thereabouts.

We have shown already this season (under Emery) that we can take it to Man Utd, Liverpool, Newcastle etc.

So I think combining this along with a good summer of recruitment, we will definately be in the mix come next May!

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On 30/05/2023 at 14:02, Pinebro said:

It's a real shame the newcastle takeover happened.

They are blocking that spot.

Because I think Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd will be difficult to move.

If Newcastle spend 150M every summer they just aren't catchable.

Your logic is kinda odd, not just in this thread...

Case in point Chelsea have spent way more money than Aston Villa over recent years; the final league table shows a different story.

Howe has done a great job, I'd still rather Emery as Villa manager.

Edited by Zhan_Zhuang
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Man City - enough said we can have a conversation when Pep moves on.

Arsenal are close to peak (if they haven’t already).Not sure yet if they can dominate or be as consistent as Wengers sides.

Liverpool and Chelsea are in transition.They are big clubs so it will happen faster then at most clubs

Newcastle ahead of schedule and not even close to their inevitable peak which will most probably see them win everything.I think there will be a few peaks and troughs along the way.

Spurs look like mid table without Kane.They require a complete rebuild.Sooner rather than later they will come again.

Man Utd behind Citeh but not as far behind Arsenal as people think.Their future depends on Ten Haag and the clubs ability to bring him the top level signings he needs.

Brighton really well set up to stay in the top 8 for now,however they openly admit that they will sell their best players each year.This means also that DeZerbi will go sooner rather than later.I just don’t think they can keep picking the right players / managers. This type of style based on on consistent almost faultless recruitment is difficult to maintain re Southampton or Swansea or Leicester.

These clubs will be as Brucey might put it “there or thereabouts”.However in my opinion as they are all in different stages of evolution there are chances for us to take advantage when some of them are not firing on all cylinders.

Its not as straightforward as they were shit this year so they must get better or they are good this year so it must continue….

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On 30/05/2023 at 23:02, Pinebro said:

It's a real shame the newcastle takeover happened.

They are blocking that spot.

Because I think Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd will be difficult to move.

If Newcastle spend 150M every summer they just aren't catchable.

I believe Arse, Manure and Newcastle are catchable because we have a better manager and we saw glimpses of that this season. All while they have had a head start over Emery.

The owners need to show their ambition and back Emery season on season, if they do that, then we can go toe to toe with them.

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22 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

Newcastle under Howe very much the trajectory we should be looking to follow next season

image.png.82fa87169d85efce1f80b6e11e667560.png

Identical seasons prior to each manager joining. An improvement of over 1ppg in the season they took over. Howe had Newcastle step up again this season. Emery doesn't even need improvement next season for us to surpass Newcastle's CL qualifying points total this season.

If we get a +0.24 improvement next season we're up there in the title challenge!

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Also, I've heard on more than one occassion from English football pundits on radio or podcasts when discussing Emery that he makes a good start at teams then drops off second season. This is, unsurprisingly, entirely based on the 13 game second season he was given at Arsenal, because it doesn't hold up for any other role he's had:

image.png.c96b34298b1ae32abba91daaa36069a1.png

The only times besides Arsenal that he earned lower PPG in his second season were after he'd earned promotion in his first season, and in both cases achieved above expectations with a newly promoted side, finishing 5th with Lorca Deportiva in the Segunda Division and 8th with Almeria in La Liga, the highest finishes in the history before or since of either club.

When not promoted in his first season, the improvement in PPG in his second season is 0.06 on average. If he repeated this with us we'd be on for a 76-77 point season in 23/24. Even if you include the promoted seasons it's only a drop off of 0.08 PPG on average, which for Villa next season would mean a 71-72 point finish. Both scenarios would more than likely lead to CL qualification for us.

Bonus Eddie Howe comparison: his Valencia first and second season PPGs to 2dp are identical to Howe's at Newcastle.

 

Edited by tomsky_11
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On 29/05/2023 at 21:39, KMitch said:

The disrespect is already starting...

Here is going to be the new media narrative this summer:  Villa are in the Conference League so they'll be too distracted to challenge for the top 4...  We'll be "doing a West Ham" next season, apparently.

 

 

What the media and fans alike forget to mention regarding West Ham is that they managed to get to the Europa League Semi Final the season before whilst maintaining pretty good league form and finishing 7th that season. There was a drop off at the back end of that season granted, but to finish in Europe again despite going deep in the EL was a decent achievement for those bottomfeeders. 

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11 hours ago, MarkLillis said:

Man City - enough said we can have a conversation when Pep moves on.

Arsenal are close to peak (if they haven’t already).Not sure yet if they can dominate or be as consistent as Wengers sides.

Liverpool and Chelsea are in transition.They are big clubs so it will happen faster then at most clubs

Newcastle ahead of schedule and not even close to their inevitable peak which will most probably see them win everything.I think there will be a few peaks and troughs along the way.

Spurs look like mid table without Kane.They require a complete rebuild.Sooner rather than later they will come again.

Man Utd behind Citeh but not as far behind Arsenal as people think.Their future depends on Ten Haag and the clubs ability to bring him the top level signings he needs.

Brighton really well set up to stay in the top 8 for now,however they openly admit that they will sell their best players each year.This means also that DeZerbi will go sooner rather than later.I just don’t think they can keep picking the right players / managers. This type of style based on on consistent almost faultless recruitment is difficult to maintain re Southampton or Swansea or Leicester.

These clubs will be as Brucey might put it “there or thereabouts”.However in my opinion as they are all in different stages of evolution there are chances for us to take advantage when some of them are not firing on all cylinders.

Its not as straightforward as they were shit this year so they must get better or they are good this year so it must continue….

I've no idea why people think Newcastle are definitely going to be an absolute powerhouse. I don't see it. 

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12 minutes ago, lexicon said:

I've no idea why people think Newcastle are definitely going to be an absolute powerhouse. I don't see it. 

because of the infinite money glitch.

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