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tomsky_11

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Everything posted by tomsky_11

  1. One thing in the accounts that very much surprises me is the post balance sheet spend on players and staff at only £67.9m. That seems quite low.
  2. Yeah. I'd say at least that. Can imagine there being increases in other deductables too.
  3. I was going to mention we'll have more depreciation based on that. We won't have depreciated the full £7M increase in cap spend in one year though, so kick will be smaller than that.
  4. I'll relook and share when have more time, and probably worth waiting for actual accounts to appear as will properly rework then, when hopefully have more info. But if you look at @CVByrne workings on next page, I've got a more prudent worse case view on revenue (I think his is perfectly reasonable tbh) and I've also left in prior workings I had giving a bump to both wages and amortisation so about £10M up on each. Again though, I'd like to understand the increase in 22/23 a bit better, as seems incredibly high and wonder if there could be some weird one-offs here that won't carry through. So again, CV keeping these figures the same for 23/24 I don't think is out of the question.
  5. Have compared the info released so far with where I'd expected us to be. Between revenue, amortisation and player sales, we are actually very slightly up on where I'd predicted. All the variance to my forecast is in wages and other admin costs. I think there are probably some positives to this. I can only think that some of this increase is down to one-offs related to the Gerrard Emery switch. Any one-offs won't carry forward into this season's books. Also, at least some of the increase (though only talking a small proportion of it) will be cost that are adjusted back out for PSR calc, so no need to worry about them. I've plugged what info as been released into my forecast model for 23/24, haven't adjusted any of my expected uplifts from 22/23, except to knock other costs back down to 21/22 levels. In this scenario we'd be about £20-25M over on PSR as it stands for 23/24. However, I think this is a worst case, and I can only assume the wages in 22/23 are inflated above base in some way that won't be replicated in 23/24.
  6. Good year to start not caring about it then Tbf I think we have enough in the way of young prospects now, need to the summer to add quality, experience and shooting. Our next 8 games looking nice: @Hornets @Wizards @Knicks Pacers Nets @Raptors Raptors Hornets. Something has gone wrong if we are not 4th in two weeks time. Especially with Knicks and Sixers playing each other twice.
  7. Yeah that's fair. What are the prospects looking like this year? Unlike last few years I've paid them zero attention this year.
  8. Please keep this up. We've still got to play you three times. Gonna be interesting to see where we end up. I thought we'd be on for the play-in start of the season, but right now we are only 1 game back on 4th and have by far the easiest remaining schedule in the league. Getting homecourt first round would be incredible.
  9. Yep cool I'd only skim read a few posts before, noticed after I posted that you'd rec'd a couple of bits back to the accounts. I had a quick run through the UEFA doc last night and though figures certainly higher than expected, I wasn't overly worried at least in short term. Seems like maybe some of what I thought we had to spend this season was actually spent last season. Next season still seems like the tipping point as we lose a profitable year from the front end of the assessment period and probably have to cover two large loss making ones. Getting CL and better commercial deals, eg Adidas should help cover some of this though.
  10. Is the UEFA doc looking at the same 12 month period as our stat accounts/PL assessment period would? I haven't properly looked into it but thought I saw something regarding the UEFA rules covering a calendar year by default (though there were exceptions which may apply to us).
  11. That’s not quite how it would work. We could buy back and immediately sell on for profit. I believe there have been multiple instances of other clubs triggering buy back only to then immediately sell the player on for a higher price. From an accounting perspective, if both the buy back and sale occurred in the same period then the total cost of the buy back and income from the sale would appear in the same period. There wouldn’t be any spreading of the cost of the buy back over 4 years, as on any sale any remaining book value of the contract at the point of sale is expense as a cost of sale. You don’t continue to amortise an asset after it is sold.
  12. Just had a relook at my calcs from in the summer for where we might be at this season regards PL and UEFA rules, and I really think it's only the UEFA rules we need to be concerned with (although not that concerned.) On the P&L side, adjusting for what we did in the summer, I think we are in a situation where we might actually further from the limit this season than last. We're talking £60-70M range clear of the limit. UEFA rules look tighter, but even then right now I think we are good to come just under the 90% limit. Next season we will need either a big kick in revenue/sales profit (estimating £60-70M on this season) or a big drop in squad cost (£40-50M), or a combination of the two to get under the 80% limit. Not sure there's a lot to be worried about here though. On the revenue side, I'd guess we are likely to see a decent boost from the Adidas deal. Then if we get CL qualification, which looks highly likely right now, that will bring further significant increases both directly and indirectly. On the squad cost side of things, just getting rid of Traore, Dendoncker, Coutinho and Digne would give us most of the squad cost drop we'd need.
  13. Is it not? Costs less to get a high end management team than maybe even one high end player, and likely has a bigger impact on the team overall.
  14. Yep, the only figure of ours that site had that made any sense is the latest £0.4M profit, and even then it's the published figure in the accounts rather than the actual figure that would be used for FFP purposes, which would have adjustments as per Swiss Ramble table.
  15. No lol. WTF is this sh*te. Yep this is accurate regards the known picture. Though it's not from @Czarnikjak (though he does provide plenty of other useful insight regards club finances) but the Swiss Ramble blog, which is definitely more reliable than whatever that other link was. I think people really need to chill (as is often the case) regards FFP and this window. My own forecasting prior to the season had us with plenty room to do the business we've done since, but with some potential issues to keep in mind (albeit perfectly manageable ones) in 24/25 if we pushed a bit too far and/or didn't make the expected progress in the league. I haven't reworked my numbers in any detail, but three key points regarding where we might have move from that forecast: 1. We didn't exceed what I'd expected us to spend in the summer (if anything we underspent my expectation) 2. We made at least what I'd expected us to make in sales profit (if anything we might have made more) 3. Our performance to date this season indicates a likely finish multiple places above my forecast and a very high chance of CL football next season, which should give the club even more reason and scope to spend in January if they feel they need to without setting us up for potential issues next season.
  16. Surely a decent option in some positions? Take DM for example. I don't see us realistically signing anyone ahead of Kamara. So we are looking for solid backup. I think a decent reliable vet, perhaps someone Emery knows well or has even worked with before, or has elite/top 4/title challenge experience, might be more likely than a young prospect who might see any path to regular first team down the line blocked by Kamara given his age. Same perhaps goes for forward if we want a more reliable backup option for Watkins, as we already have Duran as a prospect for this role but at present he is not experienced or reliable enough for a top 4 challenge.
  17. Write them off for what? Top 4? Top 5? Overtaking us? Pretty sure Newcastle in 9th have basically no chance of getting ahead of us. They'd need to score 13 points more than us in 18 games, or 0.7ppg, just to tie on points come the end of the season. Even if we matched the worst 18 game return of Emery's career, which in itself is highly unlikely, Newcastle would still need 1.8ppg to get ahead. 30 points is what we got in the like-for-like of our remaining 18 fixtures last season, and is probably just below what I'd expect us to pick up this season, especially give last season's results include 5 pre-Emery games which gave us only 4 points. So Emery actually got 2ppg for the 13 games he managed last season. Even if we only get 30 points, which would be a couple of points below Emery's career average, that would require anyone from West Ham in 6th down to pick up over 2ppg for remainder of the season to even match us. None of this seems very likely.
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