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European chase 2021/22


Nigel

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Just now, maqroll said:

What place gets us in Europe?

Just top 7. Don't think there's any formula that it goes down to 8th.

8th place remains a realistic target for me although we need to get 4 points off Leeds and West Ham to stay in touch, looks far more possible now than straight after losing to Watford!

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Just now, NoelVilla said:

To bad we had that little slump in form.

The 5 straight defeats really killed our season during October.

Wolves were talking about top 4 three games ago but they've had a little reality check. They're a good team but certainly not 10 points better than us and that's slowly being reflected in the table.

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11 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

The 5 straight defeats really killed our season during October.

Wolves were talking about top 4 three games ago but they've had a little reality check. They're a good team but certainly not 10 points better than us and that's slowly being reflected in the table.

I didn't mean those games but they count to our league position as well of course. Next season we will get there. 100% if Coutinho is here.

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Just now, Zhan_Zhuang said:

Wolves are stuttering...they will be our target. I'm convinced we will finish above Southampton, Palace, Brighton etc.

Eighth is a possibility and would be a fantastic achievement considering the upheaval this season has been.

Today was Wolves's sixth home defeat of the season so not like they've turned Molineux into a fortress this season.

We just need to get a few more wins at home next season, very rarely do we ever get close to 10 home wins. Signing Coutinho full time will massively improve that hope.

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4 hours ago, Kuwabatake Sanjuro said:

A big ask but if we beat Leeds and West Ham this coming week we will only be 6 points behind them and they have a tough run of fixtures then including playing a lot of teams fighting for their lives.

Got a feeling West Ham will be more winnable than Leeds. Bowen got injured today and not sure what was up with Rice so that's two huge players potentially missing and they really don't keep too many clean sheets.

Will also need to put their full team out v Sevilla whereas we can hopefully rotate a bit more over the next week.

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Can we realistically finish 8th? We would have to finish ahead of ALL these 5 teams:

Wolves 7 points ahead, Villa with a game in hand. 

Southampton 2 points ahead, Villa with a game in hand.

Palace equal, Villa have 2 games in hand.

Leicester equal, Leicester have a game in hand.

Brighton equal, Villa have a game in hand.

 

Villa's next 5 games are Leeds (a), West Ham (a), Arsenal (h), Wolves (a), Spurs (h).

The game in hand is against Burnley.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Villa's next 5 games are Leeds (a), West Ham (a), Arsenal (h), Wolves (a), Spurs (h).

The game in hand is against Burnley.

5 Points max from Leeds, West Ham, Arsenal, Wolves, Spurs imo.

Leeds (W) West Ham (D) Arsenal (L), Wolves (D) Spurs (L)

As for Burnley they are scrapping for every point at the minute so will be a difficult game to get anything out of.

 

Edited by AshVilla
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46 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Can we realistically finish 8th? We would have to finish ahead of ALL these 5 teams:

Wolves 7 points ahead, Villa with a game in hand. 

Southampton 2 points ahead, Villa with a game in hand.

Palace equal, Villa have 2 games in hand.

Leicester equal, Leicester have a game in hand.

Brighton equal, Villa have a game in hand.

 

Villa's next 5 games are Leeds (a), West Ham (a), Arsenal (h), Wolves (a), Spurs (h).

The game in hand is against Burnley.

 

 

We can certainly finish ahead of three of them. Brighton lost their last three now and got Liverpool and Spurs in next two. Palace got Man. City at home on Monday. Not sure who Saints have got but feels like they may drop off a bit now from their good run.

Depends what Wolves do but say they only draw v Watford and lose at Everton then we can really start to put pressure on them ahead of going there if we pick up another win or two before then.

Edited by VillaChris
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It's nice to even be thinking ambitiously of European qualification again, rather than entertaining gloomy relegation fears. I will be happy with 10th, anything above that would be a bonus. 

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On 05/03/2022 at 17:01, VillaChris said:

Just top 7. Don't think there's any formula that it goes down to 8th.

God knows - it's a baffling hotpotch of nonsensical rules.

I think there is a way in that if an already qualified team wins the FA Cup and Manchester United win the Champions League and finish 5th then the Europa League place for finishing 5th does carry down into the league spots, so to the team in 6th, with the FA Cup winning spot going to 7th and the Conference spot going to 8th. That might be wrong.

I'm not sure if that's true if West Ham win the Europa league - I think we just lose a Europa league spot and West Ham qualify for the Champions league.

Likewise, if Leicester win the Europa conference, then I think they qualify for the Europa League and I'm not sure if the league place (5th) loses out or the FA Cup winners lose out. 

As ever, it's as clear as mud.

I think it might be possible that if West Ham and Leicester were to win the Europa league and Europa conference, then we'd have five CL spots (the top four and West Ham), two Europa spots (Leicester and the FA Cup winners) and one team in the Europa conference (nominally the league cup winners, but because that's Liverpool then probably the team in 5th).

So yeah, I think there's a highly unlikely way to finish 8th and qualify for Europe and a highly unlikely way to finish 5th and not qualify for Europe.

Almost all of that is almost definitely wrong.

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