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European chase 2021/22


Nigel

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To have a chance to go to Europe (which we shall play for but without putting much pressure), 

We have 3 free hit games, 4 6 pointers, 4 easier ones. 

We’ve said this a lot, and probably will keep saying it. But West Ham game is a proper final. It will put them within our reach. 
All of our 6 pointers are coming after each other. If we can get out of it with an outside chance then we can make it. 

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IF we could beat West Ham we’d be 6 points behind them with a game in hand against Burnley.

IF we could also beat Wolves…

Then we’d have an extremely unlikely chance of finishing 7th. 

Still think we’ll finish 9-10th though as inconsistency is our downfall. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ender4 said:

 

IF we could beat West Ham we’d be 6 points behind them with a game in hand against Burnley.

IF we could also beat Wolves…

Then we’d have an extremely unlikely chance of finishing 7th. 

Still think we’ll finish 9-10th though as inconsistency is our downfall. 

 

 

Our 13 losses is a very ugly stat.

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Just now, Mantis said:

7 of them in our opening 11 games.

That start really did kill off the season.

Definitely killed our European chances and could have easily killed the season, but I think we’ll finish 9th/10th which is progression nonetheless

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We haven't finished in the top half of the Premier League for more than ten years, only other time we've spent that much time outside the top half of the top division was between the 1962/63 and 1975/76 seasons and I think that period is often regarded as the worst in the club's history. Just getting into the top half would be a good achievement for this season, especially after the start we had, and something to hopefully build on.

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3 hours ago, useless said:

We haven't finished in the top half of the Premier League for more than ten years, only other time we've spent that much time outside the top half of the top division was between the 1962/63 and 1975/76 seasons and I think that period is often regarded as the worst in the club's history. Just getting into the top half would be a good achievement for this season, especially after the start we had, and something to hopefully build on.

Important to remember we finished 11th last season too. Top half is progress in what was a shaky first half of the season.

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I get the feeling of what could have been, even just holding onto that 2 goal lead to beat Leeds and getting a 0-0 vs Watford. Would have us on 39 points and a win over West Ham and winning our game in hand at home to Burnley would have us level on points. I feel the best we're really looking at is we'll end 8th with West Ham 2 or 3 points clear in 7th.

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9 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

I get the feeling of what could have been, even just holding onto that 2 goal lead to beat Leeds and getting a 0-0 vs Watford. Would have us on 39 points and a win over West Ham and winning our game in hand at home to Burnley would have us level on points. I feel the best we're really looking at is we'll end 8th with West Ham 2 or 3 points clear in 7th.

Yeah and dont forget the ollie goal at Newcastle. It happens.

I think the biggest next year is going to be Newcastle.  They are already improving massively and they will probably out spend us in the summer too.

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5 hours ago, useless said:

We haven't finished in the top half of the Premier League for more than ten years, only other time we've spent that much time outside the top half of the top division was between the 1962/63 and 1975/76 seasons and I think that period is often regarded as the worst in the club's history.

If you were to ask my old man he'd tell you they were the best days to be a Villa fan 😂

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If we include winning our game in hand back when it was scheduled to play, we'd be on 1.7 ppg under Gerrard and that would be 65 points over a full 38 game season. Add to that, can anyone think of a game we've won where we were not clearly the better team? We've had lots of dropped points where we haven't got what we deserved out of the games. 

We are 7th in the form table since Gerrard took over behind only the big six. 29 from 17 would be only 1 less than United 30 from 17.  This includes the steep learning curve on the players and an unfinished squad.

 

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Interestingly if you compared our games this season to the equivalent ones last season we also would have been on 36 points.

 

The next 6 fixtures are tough ones though and it's difficult to say how many points we'll get. Last season we took 12 points from West Ham (L), Arsenal (W), Wolves (W), Spurs (L), Liverpool (W), Leicester (W), but I wouldn't fancy us to take that many this time round. Even an average of a point a game in the next 6 would be ok although obviously we should be looking for more.

 

Having said that, the next 2 are sort of in our advantage given West Ham are not in great form and played away in Spain last night (with one eye on the return fixture next week), and Arsenal play Liverpool less than three days before playing us which should take quite a bit out of them.

 

The games after the international break, the Wolves game could go either way (though we owe them for that Villa Park catastrophe), Spurs can be really good but also really poor (a better version of us) but we're well overdue a win against them at Villa Park (think the last time we beat them there was January 2008 and I was at that game), and Leicester is a winnable game although obviously not easy.

 

The only one you could say we'll almost certainly lose is Liverpool although I thought that last season and we put 7 past them!

 

Hopefully we can beat a few of the decent teams in the next 6, will be interesting to see how Gerrard fares against the likes of Spurs and Arsenal as they're good sides but not elite like the top 3 are. 

Edited by VillaFaninLondon
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3 minutes ago, VillaFaninLondon said:

The next 6 fixtures are tough ones though and it's difficult to say how many points we'll get. Last season we took 12 points from West Ham (L), Arsenal (W), Wolves (W), Spurs (L), Liverpool (W), Leicester (W), but I wouldn't fancy us to take that many this time round. Even an average of a point a game in the next 6 would be ok although obviously we should be looking for more.

Shows how far we have come but i'd be disappointed if we only got 6 points out of the next 6 games. Though i wouldn't be surprised either.  

If we want to catch 8th place, we really need 9-12 points out of those 6 games.

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The most annoying thing is that if we didn't have those two pins poor collapses ( wolves and the Leeds draw) we would have 5 more points, putting us only 2 points off wolves with a game in hand, despite our poor start to the season

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37 minutes ago, Icarium said:

The most annoying thing is that if we didn't have those two pins poor collapses ( wolves and the Leeds draw) we would have 5 more points, putting us only 2 points off wolves with a game in hand, despite our poor start to the season

If we didn't have the Wolves collapse, we probably wouldn't have gone on that 5 game losing streak and Dean Smith would probably still be manager at Villa. 

That final 10 minutes against Wolves really was a sliding doors moment.

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