villa4europe Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 hour ago, VillaJ100 said: I've been a Villa fan long enough to not see 5 easy fixtures and 5 wins much more likely to get 8-10 points rather than 15. I mean who saw Brentford coming. We've left it too late for a europe push. We've lost a LOT of football matches, a couple of our wins turned into draw and we'd be looking over our shoulder. I'd like to go strong this second half and finish well into the top half. Agree and in that context just enjoy the season We don't get many with no pressure but this should now be one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post tomsky_11 Posted February 4, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted February 4, 2022 How realistic is it to hope for the kind of run of results that might get us into the European places? An interesting comparison might be the first 17 games of last season... Fixture difficulty Of last seasons opening 17 games, 8 were at home and 9 away. The average position in the final table of the teams played was 10.71 overall, 13.25 at home and 8.44 away. We played all of the eventual top 6, with 5 of these games away from home. Our remaining fixtures this season compare favourably, with 9 at home and 8 away, while the average current ppg table position of our opponents is 11.41 (0.7 better), 11.89 at home and 10.88 away. We play 4 of the current ppg top 6, with 3 of these games at home. Weighting the home fixtures by 50%, this seasons fixtures still come out favourable, probably due to the additional home game this season offsetting the easier home fixtures last season. Players used/available The average starting lineup for the opening 17 games of last season was: Martinez (17 starts); Cash (16), Targett (17), Konsa (14), Mings (16); Luiz (16), McGinn (16), Barkley (8); Traore (9), Grealish (17), Watkins (17) 7 of 11 players in the side above are in our current available strongest XI. I would argue that overall the four changed positions have seen an improvement overall: LB - Digne for Targett - should provide at least as much defensive input but with much improved offensive contribution. MC - Ramsey for Barkley - pre-injury Barkley's contribution was pretty good but then Ramsey has in my opinion looked as least as good in recent games. Barkley only had 8 starts and was most commonly replaced by El Ghazi, with Grealish moving central. This season we have a more direct and improved replacement available in Sanson. Overall this looks like an improvement to me. AMR - Buendia for Traore - on the face of it a definite improvement, although Traore's 4 goals and 2 assists with only 9 starts in last season's first 17 can't be knocked. Buendia has 2 goals and 3 assists in 15 starts so far this season. Even still I think it's hard to argue that this isn't an improvement given Buendia's improved form and more allround contribution to the team. Last season's AMR starts were split almost equally between Traore and Trezuguet, while this season Traore's still here as back up, and could even end up third choice for this spot given Bailey's imminent return. AML - Coutinho for Grealish - difficult to judge this one I think. Grealish probably at his peak the first half of last season, with 5 goals and 8 assists in the opening 17 games. That kind of G&A contribution is the kind that Coutinho has achieved on multiple occassions at this level, but not for a few seasons, if only for lack of opportunity. Early signs look positive though and there's still every chance Countinho could have as much impact as peak Grealish last season. Overall it's seems to me impossible to argue we aren't a better team player-for-player than in the first 17 games of last season. We've definitely improved in at least two of the four changed positions, and could possibly have improved in all four, which is quite something given that one of these players was the standout of those first 17 games. Furthermore, we seem to have much more quality in reserve than last season so are better covered in most areas. We were lucky enough for the most part to not require it in last season's games, with 8 players missing no more than 1 of the 17 and similar luck with availability would certainly help this season. But this greater squad depth should hopefully mean we are less affected by any issues we do have. Management It's still early in Gerrard's tenure but signs so far are pretty promising in comparison to Smith last season. Gerrard has clearly made changes that should make us harder to beat, with a much more compact defensive shape than we'd have seen last season. I'd argue we also look potentially more balanced going forward than last season given our overreliance then on forcing the ball left through Grealish. At the moment it's hard to see any downsides to our play under Gerrard when compared to last season, while there are definitely some upsides. Results So what did we achieve in the opening 17 games of last season? And how close to Europe would a similar run get us in the remainder of this season? 9 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, 31 scored and 18 conceded. 29 points. The same run to the end of this season would see us reach 55 points. This was the same points total as last season which saw us finish 11th, though this season would more likely see us gain a place or two. Still not enough for Europe then, which would probably require at least 60 points. But turn a defeat and a draw into wins and we're there. Not big margins. Think the West Ham away and Burnley home games last season that we utterly domitated and really should have won. With an improved side, potentially more favourable fixture list and arguably better management a late push for Europe doesn't seem to me to be too far fetched just yet. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A'Villan Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 25 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said: How realistic is it to hope for the kind of run of results that might get us into the European places? An interesting comparison might be the first 17 games of last season... Fixture difficulty Of last seasons opening 17 games, 8 were at home and 9 away. The average position in the final table of the teams played was 10.71 overall, 13.25 at home and 8.44 away. We played all of the eventual top 6, with 5 of these games away from home. Our remaining fixtures this season compare favourably, with 9 at home and 8 away, while the average current ppg table position of our opponents is 11.41 (0.7 better), 11.89 at home and 10.88 away. We play 4 of the current ppg top 6, with 3 of these games at home. Weighting the home fixtures by 50%, this seasons fixtures still come out favourable, probably due to the additional home game this season offsetting the easier home fixtures last season. Players used/available The average starting lineup for the opening 17 games of last season was: Martinez (17 starts); Cash (16), Targett (17), Konsa (14), Mings (16); Luiz (16), McGinn (16), Barkley (8); Traore (9), Grealish (17), Watkins (17) 7 of 11 players in the side above are in our current available strongest XI. I would argue that overall the four changed positions have seen an improvement overall: LB - Digne for Targett - should provide at least as much defensive input but with much improved offensive contribution. MC - Ramsey for Barkley - pre-injury Barkley's contribution was pretty good but then Ramsey has in my opinion looked as least as good in recent games. Barkley only had 8 starts and was most commonly replaced by El Ghazi, with Grealish moving central. This season we have a more direct and improved replacement available in Sanson. Overall this looks like an improvement to me. AMR - Buendia for Traore - on the face of it a definite improvement, although Traore's 4 goals and 2 assists with only 9 starts in last season's first 17 can't be knocked. Buendia has 2 goals and 3 assists in 15 starts so far this season. Even still I think it's hard to argue that this isn't an improvement given Buendia's improved form and more allround contribution to the team. Last season's AMR starts were split almost equally between Traore and Trezuguet, while this season Traore's still here as back up, and could even end up third choice for this spot given Bailey's imminent return. AML - Coutinho for Grealish - difficult to judge this one I think. Grealish probably at his peak the first half of last season, with 5 goals and 8 assists in the opening 17 games. That kind of G&A contribution is the kind that Coutinho has achieved on multiple occassions at this level, but not for a few seasons, if only for lack of opportunity. Early signs look positive though and there's still every chance Countinho could have as much impact as peak Grealish last season. Overall it's seems to me impossible to argue we aren't a better team player-for-player than in the first 17 games of last season. We've definitely improved in at least two of the four changed positions, and could possibly have improved in all four, which is quite something given that one of these players was the standout of those first 17 games. Furthermore, we seem to have much more quality in reserve than last season so are better covered in most areas. We were lucky enough for the most part to not require it in last season's games, with 8 players missing no more than 1 of the 17 and similar luck with availability would certainly help this season. But this greater squad depth should hopefully mean we are less affected by any issues we do have. Management It's still early in Gerrard's tenure but signs so far are pretty promising in comparison to Smith last season. Gerrard has clearly made changes that should make us harder to beat, with a much more compact defensive shape than we'd have seen last season. I'd argue we also look potentially more balanced going forward than last season given our overreliance then on forcing the ball left through Grealish. At the moment it's hard to see any downsides to our play under Gerrard when compared to last season, while there are definitely some upsides. Results So what did we achieve in the opening 17 games of last season? And how close to Europe would a similar run get us in the remainder of this season? 9 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, 31 scored and 18 conceded. 29 points. The same run to the end of this season would see us reach 55 points. This was the same points total as last season which saw us finish 11th, though this season would more likely see us gain a place or two. Still not enough for Europe then, which would probably require at least 60 points. But turn a defeat and a draw into wins and we're there. Not big margins. Think the West Ham away and Burnley home games last season that we utterly domitated and really should have won. With an improved side, potentially more favourable fixture list and arguably better management a late push for Europe doesn't seem to me to be too far fetched just yet. Thanks for the write up. Not everyone will agree with the content but it's most definitely food for thought and furthers the discussion. Great work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A'Villan Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) All I have to add to the discussion currently is that Wes Edens will not be idle in ensuring that this club sees its potential realised. He will be an active leader throughout the campaign to see it done. For Villans wanting to understand why I hold that view, they should read and watch up on Edens interviews but most importantly the rise of the Milwaukee Bucks from all time club low, as low as can go in the NBA, to eventual winners of the competitions pinnacle, the NBA finals. I'll do my best to source some of it over the weekend and put it in the appropriate thread. We have a team working on a common goal here, and that is to see how far we can go. Edited February 4, 2022 by A'Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 minute ago, A'Villan said: Thanks for the write up. Not everyone will agree with the content but it's most definitely food for thought and furthers the discussion. Great work. Cheers. I'm sure many won't. And I've seen enough Villa to know it could go horribly the other way as well. Just think it was interesting that we'd put together an extended run of results close to what we'd need as recently as last season so doesn't seem completely out of the question, especially if we've improved and the games are easier on paper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, A'Villan said: All I have to add to the discussion currently is that Wes Edens will not be idle in ensuring that this club sees its potential realised. He will be an active leader throughout the campaign to see it done. For Villans wanting to understand why I hold that view, they should read and watch up on Edens interviews but most importantly the rise of the Milwaukee Bucks from all time club low, as low as can go in the NBA, to eventual winners of the competitions pinnacle, the NBA finals. I'll do my best to source some of it over the weekend and put it in the appropriate thread. We have a team working on a common goal here, and that is to see how far we can go. As a Magic fan, all too aware of the rise of the Bucks under Edens. Could do with similar in Orlando right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A'Villan Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said: As a Magic fan, all too aware of the rise of the Bucks under Edens. Could do with similar in Orlando right now. Shaq, Penny, Grant, Anderson and Scott. That should have been one of, if not the greatest dynasties. I'm an unstoppaBULLS fan because of that era. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted February 12, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 12, 2022 We've got 2 games in hand on 4th place - beat NUFC and Watford and we are 7 points off. Now I'm not saying we'll get champions league (we won't) - but put a run together now and it really isn't that mad to talk about Europe. Of course this entirely ignores our defensive woes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 If we can win against Newcastle there is feint hope of seventh... A draw or defeat and top ten is the best we can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa87 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Ship has sailed this season. I expect a serious push next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Villa87 said: Ship has sailed this season. I expect a serious push next season. Agreed. Just can't see it. You look at where we are in the table and the current form and it very much screams "midtable". Tbf I would've bitten your hand off for that in early November. Edited February 12, 2022 by Mantis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) If we win everygame from now until the end the season I think we can get europe Keep that form going next season, then who knows we could be PL champions. not impossible Edited February 12, 2022 by messi11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 We have blown it. That leeda results killed any chance we had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted February 12, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 hours ago, Jareth said: We've got 2 games in hand on 4th place - beat NUFC and Watford and we are 7 points off. Now I'm not saying we'll get champions league (we won't) - but put a run together now and it really isn't that mad to talk about Europe. Of course this entirely ignores our defensive woes. We can't beat a weakened Leeds who have just been dismantled by Everton. As you have pointed out our defensive set up is miles away from European qualification. I'm disappointed with the players and money spent we should be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 40 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: We have blown it. That leeda results killed any chance we had On the flip side, it'll give us chance to blood some younger players and see how they develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Demitri_C said: We have blown it. That leeda results killed any chance we had This is bizarre? Yeah I'd agree we probably don't have any sort of realistic chance but getting 1 point instead of 3 on Wednesday wasn't the tipping point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aston_Villan4 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 9 hours ago, Demitri_C said: We have blown it. That leeda results killed any chance we had I think the 3-2-7, or whatever our record prior to Gerrard was, is what blew it for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 10 hours ago, Mantis said: This is bizarre? Yeah I'd agree we probably don't have any sort of realistic chance but getting 1 point instead of 3 on Wednesday wasn't the tipping point. Its not just that but that was the tiniest of opportunities to get Europe. We needed to win that game. If we finish inside top 10 it will do this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Avoid defeat today and it’s unbeaten in 4. Have we managed that all season? Yes we won’t make Europe and needs wins but at least we’ve stopped losing games for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 We've no chance of nabbing 7th now after the draw with Leeds added to the Brentford loss. Draw today just leaves us further adrift. I'm more worried about us getting 9th or 10th and a top half finish. With the midfield we have we'll continue to concede goals especially in transition and that'll undermine us for the rest of the season. Away to Newcastle, Away to Brighton, these are games that look tough now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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