European chase 2021/22

[tomsky_11]

29 minutes ago, paul514 said:

We need that many just to catch up with 8th place in all likelihood 

Not unreasonable that with a run like this we could have virtually caught West Ham before we play them on 12th March, assuming some of the fixture backlog gets cleared in Feb.

Here’s possible fixtures between now and then for us, West Ham, wolves, Leicester and Brighton, assume two backlog games max get rearranged:

Wha: WAT lei NEW WOL liv

Wol: ARS tot LEI whu CRY (+ WAT ars)

Bha: lei wat BUR AVL new (+ TOT mnu)

Lei: BHA liv WHU wol che LEE (+ eve NOR)

Avl: LEE new WAT bha SOU (+ BUR lee)

Assuming we do have a strong run in these, say 5 wins and 2 draws, we’d be on 43 points.

The other teams could the pick up the following points:

Wha: beat WAT, NEW, draw WOL. 7pts

Wol: beat LEI, CRY, WAT, draw whu, ARS. 11pts.

Bha: beat BUR, draw wat, AVL, new. 6pts.

Lei: beat BHA, WHU, LEE, NOR, draw eve. 13pts.

Table after these would look like:

Wol 45

Whu 44

Avl 43

Lei 38 (one game still in hand)

Bha 36

For any of the these teams to be much better off than this they are basically having to get points off top 6 teams of each other.

We’d then be going into games away at West Ham and Wolves (with Arsenal at home in between) with a chance to go above both of them.

[tomsky_11]

8 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

Not unreasonable that with a run like this we could have virtually caught West Ham before we play them on 12th March, assuming some of the fixture backlog gets cleared in Feb.

Here’s possible fixtures between now and then for us, West Ham, wolves, Leicester and Brighton, assume two backlog games max get rearranged:

Wha: WAT lei NEW WOL liv

Wol: ARS tot LEI whu CRY (+ WAT ars)

Bha: lei wat BUR AVL new (+ TOT mnu)

Lei: BHA liv WHU wol che LEE (+ eve NOR)

Avl: LEE new WAT bha SOU (+ BUR lee)

Assuming we do have a strong run in these, say 5 wins and 2 draws, we’d be on 43 points.

The other teams could the pick up the following points:

Wha: beat WAT, NEW, draw WOL. 7pts

Wol: beat LEI, CRY, WAT, draw whu, ARS. 11pts.

Bha: beat BUR, draw wat, AVL, new. 6pts.

Lei: beat BHA, WHU, LEE, NOR, draw eve. 13pts.

Table after these would look like:

Wol 45

Whu 44

Avl 43

Lei 38 (one game still in hand)

Bha 36

For any of the these teams to be much better off than this they are basically having to get points off top 6 teams of each other.

We’d then be going into games away at West Ham and Wolves (with Arsenal at home in between) with a chance to go above both of them.

Or apply this logic to all these games:

top 6 (excluding whu), draw home, lose away

games against each other, home wins

games against bottom half (excluding Leicester), win home and away

table would go:

Wha 46

wol 44

avl 44

bha 42

lei 40 (game in hand)

 

 

[messi11]

I would say its best to just take 1 game at a time. 

[nepal_villan]

35 minutes ago, messi11 said:

I would say its best to just take 1 game at a time. 

The team should take it one game at a time. Fans can dream - it's what makes supporting a football club so interesting.

[abdulaziz1]

15 hours ago, VillaChris said:

That 5 game losing streak killed any hope of top 6 really. Spin the Wolves result around and we'd be 2 points off them even accounting for the other four losses.

Can't expect to lose five straight and seriously challenge for top 6 in future seasons although we probably lost four in a row in one of the O'Neill seasons.

Actually we’re looking at 7th rather than 6th. 

[abdulaziz1]

Good results today. Leicester, Brighton and Arsenal all drawing. 
 

I still think that Arsenal are out of our sight. Not sure about Spurs or Man Utd. But we shall aim for Europe (without giving it much hope). 

[david-avfc]

We’re a long way off getting into Europe. We are just too inconsistent and probably too far back on points for a late charge.
 

Maybe next season can be different but there’s a huge gulf to overcome, it’s not just about individual quality, but also the ability to do it consistently basis and I’m not sure we close to having that yet.

[paul514]

16 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Not unreasonable that with a run like this we could have virtually caught West Ham before we play them on 12th March, assuming some of the fixture backlog gets cleared in Feb.

Here’s possible fixtures between now and then for us, West Ham, wolves, Leicester and Brighton, assume two backlog games max get rearranged:

Wha: WAT lei NEW WOL liv

Wol: ARS tot LEI whu CRY (+ WAT ars)

Bha: lei wat BUR AVL new (+ TOT mnu)

Lei: BHA liv WHU wol che LEE (+ eve NOR)

Avl: LEE new WAT bha SOU (+ BUR lee)

Assuming we do have a strong run in these, say 5 wins and 2 draws, we’d be on 43 points.

The other teams could the pick up the following points:

Wha: beat WAT, NEW, draw WOL. 7pts

Wol: beat LEI, CRY, WAT, draw whu, ARS. 11pts.

Bha: beat BUR, draw wat, AVL, new. 6pts.

Lei: beat BHA, WHU, LEE, NOR, draw eve. 13pts.

Table after these would look like:

Wol 45

Whu 44

Avl 43

Lei 38 (one game still in hand)

Bha 36

For any of the these teams to be much better off than this they are basically having to get points off top 6 teams of each other.

We’d then be going into games away at West Ham and Wolves (with Arsenal at home in between) with a chance to go above both of them.

Let’s get a few wins on the bounce and I might start believing.

[Zhan_Zhuang]

Win the next couple on the bounce and hope results go our way and top eight will be on.

The aim is Top Eight, it's remotely possible for us to get sixth or seventh.

[VillaChris]

2 hours ago, abdulaziz1 said:

Actually we’re looking at 7th rather than 6th. 

Will be tough. Need to finish above one of Man. United, Spurs, Arsenal and West Ham.

Man. United will win games despite being terrible, Spurs doing fine under Conte and have loads of spare games. West Ham could be option but we really need to get 6 points off Burnley and Leeds whenever we play them and see how far off we are.

Perhaps Arsenal will go into a slump now. Were in good form but lost momentum I think with the cancelled games and 0-0 at home to Burnley is a poor result so hopefully they go 3-4 without a win and we can close ground on them.

[messi11]

Results going our way, Spurs, Arsenal, West Ham, Brighton and Leicester all dropping points. Now we go into our easiest fixture run since I can ever remember  
RACE FOR EUROPE- ITS ON!!

[Steero113]

Just now, messi11 said:

Results going our way, Spurs, Arsenal, West Ham, Brighton and Leicester all dropping points. Now we go into our easiest fixture run since I can ever remember  
RACE FOR EUROPE- ITS ON!!

Well, thanks for the ride everyone, might as well close the thread. 

[Loxstock92]

2 minutes ago, messi11 said:

Results going our way, Spurs, Arsenal, West Ham, Brighton and Leicester all dropping points. Now we go into our easiest fixture run since I can ever remember  
RACE FOR EUROPE- ITS ON!!

 

[CVByrne]

I think West Ham not making a signing this window and still in FA Cup and Europa League. They're going to come back into the pack. It's game on for 7th I feel. We need to get 10 to 12 points from next 5 games to push us up into the fight.

Wolves sold Adama Traore. Brighton just drawing games and their form was at beginning of season. Leicester just not as good as previous two seasons. 

[ender4]

well as i'm bored with no games playing for ages....the next games for teams just above us are:

West Ham vs Watford - need Watford to win.  That would leave us 11 points behind West Ham but with 3 games in hand against Leeds, Leeds and Burnley. or 2 points behind if we win those games in hand.

Spurs vs Southampton - need Southampton to win. That would leave us 10 points behind having played the same amount of games. 

Wolves vs Arsenal - assuming we beat Leeds which we play first, if they draw against each other, we will be 6 points behind Wolves and 8 points behind Arsenal. All having played the same amount of games.

 

It feels all are still catchable if we can go on a mini-run over the next 5 games - Leeds, Newcastle, Watford, Brighton & Southampton.

 

 

Edited February 3, 2022 by ender4

[Zhan_Zhuang]

It's possible but important we beat the teams around us and those we might be able to catch.

We owe Arsenal, Wet Spam, Wolves and Spuds, just imagine if we could get some good form together and also beat those four teams!

[KMitch]

I'm not getting carried away.  Need to just take it one game at a time and beat the team in front of us.  On paper, this is the strongest Villa squad since 08-09, but all the teams around us have good squads now too.  It's up to Stevie G & team to get us playing up to our potential this season.  

Let's put 6 past Dirty Leeds and kick off their spiral into relegation contention next Wednesday.  UTV!!!

 

[A'Villan]

We could go on a run over our next five fixtures, we are looking to win all our games, I'm sure, but with that run I'd go as far to say we are counting on at least double digits points return given our opponents in each.

You never know, we are within reach of Spurs and the Gunners.

[VillaJ100]

I've been a Villa fan long enough to not see 5 easy fixtures and 5 wins  much more likely to get 8-10 points rather than 15. I mean who saw Brentford coming. 

We've left it too late for a europe push. We've lost a LOT of football matches, a couple of our wins turned into draw and we'd be looking over our shoulder. I'd like to go strong this second half and finish well into the top half.

[A'Villan]

The team still needs some time and work to be at full throttle, and there are no easy fixtures. One of the many great aspects of having a player like Grealish was that opposition could watch tape and formulate tactics all season, but you still couldn't stop him at Villa. We've got every chance of success with the guys we've recruited but we need them to find and establish themselves here as Grealish did over the years, and it did take years.

Thankfully Buendia and Coutinho are more mature and experienced but that will only mean they know themselves, integrating into a cohesive whole is different. Do that though and we will challenge European placing. Even if we fall short we will be in the conversation.