Ollie Watkins

[nick76]

1 hour ago, TRO said:

Well, when Modric is still turning it on at 36....28 & 29 is at their peak.

With all the modern fitness and food disciplines,the pitches and ancillary equipment........ the age limitations do seem to have risen, depending on the individual of course.

I don't think 29 is a problem for elite players.

I completely agree

[By the arse of McGinn]

I’ve never been convinced about Ollie. When he’s on his game, his work rate is second to none. Recently though even this seems to have dropped off. 
 

I always felt he was past the age where he would develop into a top striker. He isn’t a natural finisher, his first touch can be extremely poor, he’s one footed and he lacks a trick to beat a defender, which means more often than not he’ll just knock it inside on his right foot and then try to get the shot. That’s too easy for Prem defenders. 
 

I still believe that Archer is a better, natural striker. When you see him play, if the opportunity to have a pop at goal arises there’s no hesitation regardless of which foot it’s on. You can’t teach that. 

[Adman]

I think he's off to arsenal if we're getting Suarez. He's not looked himself since ings arrived and I think a Suarez / ings type finisher is maybe more suited to how Gerrard wants us to play

£40 mill would give us I'm guessing £20 odd mill profit (once we amortise purchase fee and avoid any add-ons ) . Suarez plays for 18months for free but high wages and archer / Barry / Caleb Chuck are primed to take over . Makes good financial sense to be honest and helps us keep spending elsewhere

[TRO]

since his dad left, he don't seem the same.

[gwi1890]

48 minutes ago, TRO said:

since his dad left, he don't seem the same.

His Dad left him at Brentford to be fair , got on alright there without him.

[tomsky_11]

16 hours ago, Adman said:

I think he's off to arsenal if we're getting Suarez. He's not looked himself since ings arrived and I think a Suarez / ings type finisher is maybe more suited to how Gerrard wants us to play

£40 mill would give us I'm guessing £20 odd mill profit (once we amortise purchase fee and avoid any add-ons ) . Suarez plays for 18months for free but high wages and archer / Barry / Caleb Chuck are primed to take over . Makes good financial sense to be honest and helps us keep spending elsewhere

IMO we shouldn't be looking to sell either Ings or Watkins at this point in time, but especially not Watkins. There's obviously a choice to be made between the two in terms of who starts, because we clearly can't set up with both in the team, either because of how they (don't) work together or because of the way it changes our shape and the way this impacts the rest of the team, both offensively and defensively. For me the choice of who should start is obviously Watkins.

First off, too me it doesn't look like there's been any significant drop in Watkins' performance to last, beyond that which I think could be attributed to trying to fit both him and Ings into the same side. His non-penalty goals per 90 is down from 0.35 to 0.31 and non-penalty xg down a smaller margin, 0.39 to 0.37. This seems almost entirely attributable to him having few shooting opportunities, 2.65 per 90 down to 2.42. His goals to shots and shots on target ratios have stayed the same from this season to last. 0.13 and 0.29 respectively. Seems reasonable to assume the small drop in chances could relate to him not always being the leading striker as he had been last season. Play Watkins consistently without Ings and I feel like we'd at least end up seeing a similar goals return to last season.

Then there's the choice between Ings or Watkins. Ings definitely appears to be the stronger finisher of the two, 0.38 goals per shot on target compare to Watkins 0.29, though Watkins does hit the target more often 43.6% vs Ings 40%. Ings also outperforms his non-penalty xg with his goals scored, where as Watkins scores marignally below his xg.

This though is about the only area where Ings scores above Watkins, and is somewhat negated by the fact the Watkins appears to be a lot more involved offensively to the point where he should score more than Ings over a season despite being the worse finisher. Watkins leads Ings in non-penalty shots per 90 (2.42 to 1.55), non-penalty xg per 90 (0.37 to 0.20) and also in shot-creating actions per 90 (2.17 to 1.14).

On top of this, Watkins' would appear to be the better aerial threat (35.4% vs Ings 19% for aerial duels this season), better ball retention (pass completion 73.6% vs Ings 65.3% while making twice as many under pressure, better dribble success rate), marginally better defensively (better tackle and pressure success rates and more blocked passes) and draws three times as many fouls per 90. All these elements seem pretty important to the way we are setting up under Gerrard, with quick passing, wing backs providing lots of crosses, compact defense based on cutting passing lanes in forward areas and a number of good set piece takers.

[Adman]

47 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

IMO we shouldn't be looking to sell either Ings or Watkins at this point in time, but especially not Watkins. There's obviously a choice to be made between the two in terms of who starts, because we clearly can't set up with both in the team, either because of how they (don't) work together or because of the way it changes our shape and the way this impacts the rest of the team, both offensively and defensively. For me the choice of who should start is obviously Watkins.

First off, too me it doesn't look like there's been any significant drop in Watkins' performance to last, beyond that which I think could be attributed to trying to fit both him and Ings into the same side. His non-penalty goals per 90 is down from 0.35 to 0.31 and non-penalty xg down a smaller margin, 0.39 to 0.37. This seems almost entirely attributable to him having few shooting opportunities, 2.65 per 90 down to 2.42. His goals to shots and shots on target ratios have stayed the same from this season to last. 0.13 and 0.29 respectively. Seems reasonable to assume the small drop in chances could relate to him not always being the leading striker as he had been last season. Play Watkins consistently without Ings and I feel like we'd at least end up seeing a similar goals return to last season.

Then there's the choice between Ings or Watkins. Ings definitely appears to be the stronger finisher of the two, 0.38 goals per shot on target compare to Watkins 0.29, though Watkins does hit the target more often 43.6% vs Ings 40%. Ings also outperforms his non-penalty xg with his goals scored, where as Watkins scores marignally below his xg.

This though is about the only area where Ings scores above Watkins, and is somewhat negated by the fact the Watkins appears to be a lot more involved offensively to the point where he should score more than Ings over a season despite being the worse finisher. Watkins leads Ings in non-penalty shots per 90 (2.42 to 1.55), non-penalty xg per 90 (0.37 to 0.20) and also in shot-creating actions per 90 (2.17 to 1.14).

On top of this, Watkins' would appear to be the better aerial threat (35.4% vs Ings 19% for aerial duels this season), better ball retention (pass completion 73.6% vs Ings 65.3% while making twice as many under pressure, better dribble success rate), marginally better defensively (better tackle and pressure success rates and more blocked passes) and draws three times as many fouls per 90. All these elements seem pretty important to the way we are setting up under Gerrard, with quick passing, wing backs providing lots of crosses, compact defense based on cutting passing lanes in forward areas and a number of good set piece takers.

I agree with you 100% and Ollie is so likeable too.  It was just a thought of where the owners might be pointing if the Suarez rumours were correct

[jim]

9 hours ago, TRO said:

since his dad left, he don't seem the same.

That and Grealish will be a big factor IMO.

[El Segundo]

I've never been totally convinced by Watkins either.  Even last season when he scored plenty, he also missed loads of chances he should have buried. I don't think he has a good enough touch or enough composure to be a really top striker.  He's good at finishing instinctively when getting on the end of crosses but far less so when put through one on one (has he scored any of those?) and when he has a little time to think about what to do. 

Top strikers instinctively look for the corner, or throw a little dummy and  hold the shot while the defenders commit themselves to a block, give the keeper the eyes, or dink it over the advancing keeper. Too often Ollie puts his head down and blasts it straight at the keeper or first defender when he has a clear chance.  

Examples -  when De Gea passed it to him in the box at Old Trafford,  in acres of space and with time to pick his spot,  he blasted it straight back at De Gea.  Also when he did show a little composure to take the ball around Mendy at Stamford Bridge he then blasted it straight at the covering defender instead of placing it or dummying to shoot to get the defender out of the way.  He did something similar in another game, I can't recall which.    Do the top strikers fluff those?  Not usually. 

Archer seems to have that knack of the kind of cool finishing I'm talking about, looking for the corner, but obviously not tested at the top level yet. It's a shame we didn't have a proper cup run to offer him more game time. 

[TRO]

32 minutes ago, El Segundo said:

I've never been totally convinced by Watkins either.  Even last season when he scored plenty, he also missed loads of chances he should have buried. I don't think he has a good enough touch or enough composure to be a really top striker.  He's good at finishing instinctively when getting on the end of crosses but far less so when put through one on one (has he scored any of those?) and when he has a little time to think about what to do. 

Top strikers instinctively look for the corner, or throw a little dummy and  hold the shot while the defenders commit themselves to a block, give the keeper the eyes, or dink it over the advancing keeper. Too often Ollie puts his head down and blasts it straight at the keeper or first defender when he has a clear chance.  

Examples -  when De Gea passed it to him in the box at Old Trafford,  in acres of space and with time to pick his spot,  he blasted it straight back at De Gea.  Also when he did show a little composure to take the ball around Mendy at Stamford Bridge he then blasted it straight at the covering defender instead of placing it or dummying to shoot to get the defender out of the way.  He did something similar in another game, I can't recall which.    Do the top strikers fluff those?  Not usually. 

Archer seems to have that knack of the kind of cool finishing I'm talking about, looking for the corner, but obviously not tested at the top level yet. It's a shame we didn't have a proper cup run to offer him more game time. 

I think its the touch, too.....but positional play/awareness is suspect too.

Right now, he is not playing very well, so many things can look amiss.

Edited January 20, 2022 by TRO

[Teale's 'tache]

8 hours ago, TRO said:

I think its the touch, too.....but positional play/awareness is suspect too.

Right now, he is not playing very well, so many things can look amiss.

He seems to be over thinking/complicating things at the moment, I think that happens to a lot of players not in form. Too many touches, snatching at chances, could also be struggling with new tactics/instructions. I don't worry about him too much though, strikes me as the kind of character who'll leave no stone unturned to return to form. Even off form, his work rate is priceless.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Teale's 'tache
typo in my typo

[jim]

1 minute ago, Teale's 'tache said:

He seems to be over thinking/complicating things at the moment, I think that happens to a lot of players not in form. Too many touches, snatching at chances, could also be struggling with new tactics/instructions. I don't worry about him too much though, strikes me as the kind of character who'll leave no stone unturned to return to form. Even off form, his work rate is priceless.

The overthinking and over complicating was there last season as well. Technically I think he is poor and his decision making isn’t the best. I’ve lost count of the amount of times since he has been here he has had the ball and not known what to do with it. 

Running around a lot and making a nuisance of himself isn’t enough for me.

[TRO]

16 hours ago, jim said:

The overthinking and over complicating was there last season as well. Technically I think he is poor and his decision making isn’t the best. I’ve lost count of the amount of times since he has been here he has had the ball and not known what to do with it. 

Running around a lot and making a nuisance of himself isn’t enough for me.

While its a positive..............No it isn't.

[jimmygreaves]

16 hours ago, jim said:

The overthinking and over complicating was there last season as well. Technically I think he is poor and his decision making isn’t the best. I’ve lost count of the amount of times since he has been here he has had the ball and not known what to do with it. 

Running around a lot and making a nuisance of himself isn’t enough for me.

Sure, but he was our top scorer last season and is top scorer currently...... so, you know, there's that.

[abdulaziz1]

4 minutes ago, jimmygreaves said:

Sure, but he was our top scorer last season and is top scorer currently...... so, you know, there's that.

Start Ings by his own for a run of games and look what will he do. 
He scored at Watford (although a pen). But Newcastle and Brentford he scored a really nice goals and shows his qualities. 
 

I think Ings is the better player. Watkins has a lot of great attributes but he’s his own enemy. Decision making is terrible and finishing isn’t really good. He also miss a lot to score one.

[Spoony]

Poor yet again. Offsides and missing and killing attacks, yet again. He’s also so slow.

He’s become my least favourite Villa player I’ve seen in years. What the hell has happened to him. 

[Mister_a]

Needs a spell on the bench.

[Zatman]

Playing like a slightly better Shane Long at the moment. 

[rbcuk]

If anyone offered silly money for him I’d take it, every game he looks worse than the week before

[AndyM3000]

The game today actually played out like we need our strikers the other way round. Ings on when we have Bundia/Countinho between the lines and then when the game gets stretched we need Watkins running the channels and pressuring their defence.