Ollie Watkins

[nick76]

28 minutes ago, spiezels said:

He’s a young player having a bad run of form. 
It’s his 2nd season in the prem. 

Plenty to learn, plenty of time to do it. 
Needs a confidence boost!

 

Or a kick up the ass and put on the bench!

[spiezels]

Perhaps he needs an arm round the shoulder and some time as the lone CF like he was all last season.

 

Young lad, might not have taken the buying of Ings well and feels under threat… good in certain situations.

 

Clearly ent right now. I think we gotta give him some games up top on his own again. 

[nick76]

32 minutes ago, spiezels said:

Young lad

He’s 26

[TRO]

17 hours ago, nick76 said:

Mate, I think that’s not the best argument.  I used to score on average a goal a game in a crappy league does that mean I can score a goal a game in the PL? Of course not.  Many strikers move up leagues and aren’t so good, in fact on this forum we talk the opposite way that if Davis moves down leagues he can score more goals.  

The goal ratio doesn’t follow the player, the player still needs to have the ability at the level you are talking about.  You’ve picked a few players it works for and I’m sure there are a few more but on the whole it becomes harder otherwise teams would just buy the top striker in the lower leagues and that player would almost guarantee that ratio in the PL but we know that’s not true.

So I don’t think the goal ratio follows the player in the main, I think if the player has the ability and the service he may be able to achieve it but it’s more often the case the higher the league the player moves to, the goal ratio decreases.

 

I just picked those 2 players at Random.

but the highlighted bit, is precisely the contrary to what those stats prove......it doesn't mean you can, but the chances are you would, because, better players would be playing you in.

I agree, it probably doesn't happen in all cases......but those stats, picked at random,  proves it does happen.

I guess its what you believe in.....I believe that once a player can score goals (i.e Andy Gray in the scottish league and then the English first division) They can score them in most leagues.

I believe in the main goal ratio's do follow the player.....but there are very few trends that apply in every situation.

 

[spiezels]

Double 

Edited January 18, 2022 by spiezels

[spiezels]

11 hours ago, nick76 said:

He’s 26

Lol, ok cheers mate.

Point still stands he’s new to the prem, and still learning. 
 

[gwi1890]

19 minutes ago, TRO said:

I just picked those 2 players at Random.

but the highlighted bit, is precisely the contrary to what those stats prove......it doesn't mean you can, but the chances are you would, because, better players would be playing you in.

I agree, it probably doesn't happen in all cases......but those stats, picked at random,  proves it does happen.

I guess its what you believe in.....I believe that once a player can score goals (i.e Andy Gray in the scottish league and then the English first division) They can score them in most leagues.

I believe in the main goal ratio's do follow the player.....but there are very few trends that apply in every situation.

 

Tell that to Jordan Rhodes and Alexander Mirtovic

[TRO]

23 hours ago, allani said:

Lots of good points being made in this general discussion by many posters.  So bravo chaps / chapesses!

I guess one caveat on the final paragraph above is that there are some physical elements at play too.  It is possible to score lots of goals in lower standard divisions even if you have a particular weakness to your game (pace, heading ability, etc) or because you have one particular stand out strength.  At that level you are probably also playing against limited defenders.  However, at higher levels it becomes more and more important to have a more rounded game.  If you have a lack of pace then good defenders will soon figure out how to stop you, if you are mainly a threat in the air then the opposition will find out better ways to either challenge you physically, or, more likely, try and elimate the threat at source by closing down the wide players before they can get a cross in / holding a higher defensive line.  There are plenty of players who have scored bucket loads of goals in lower leagues who have been complete flops in higher leagues.

What, I think becomes more important, in the higher leagues is that all round ability - good on the deck, decent pace, good in the air.  It is why maybe a player like Lineker might struggle more in today's game than someone like Shearer (although I still think Lineker was so quick in and around the box that he'd manage to find space to score a decent number of goals).

So goal ratios are all fine but they are still only part of the overall picture.  Anyway bring on more stats analysis please!!!  I am loving it!

I endorse that 100%

my point was, and was backed up by stats....thats some players score MORE goals in the higher league. I accept many factors can contribute to that, like incremental experience, but the other factor is, playing with better players.

I also accept, its no hard and fast rule....just merely highlighting, it does happen, in reverse to what logic suggests.

Personally.....I would take credence of goal ratio's in to my evaluation of a strikers worth.....as you say, not in isolation, but a part of other factors.

as an example...........I think a striker who has a 1:5  goal to game ratio,previously,  to expect him to be prolific in a new team, is fanciful....irrespective of the league standard, variance.

Edited January 18, 2022 by TRO

[nick76]

32 minutes ago, TRO said:

I just picked those 2 players at Random.

but the highlighted bit, is precisely the contrary to what those stats prove......it doesn't mean you can, but the chances are you would, because, better players would be playing you in.

I agree, it probably doesn't happen in all cases......but those stats, picked at random,  proves it does happen.

I guess its what you believe in.....I believe that once a player can score goals (i.e Andy Gray in the scottish league and then the English first division) They can score them in most leagues.

I believe in the main goal ratio's do follow the player.....but there are very few trends that apply in every situation.

 

Mate, you are off with the fairies with this one.  I love you, but you've had too much of the scotch over xmas!

[TRO]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

Mate, you are off with the fairies with this one.  I love you, but you've had too much of the scotch over xmas!

The feeling is mutual.....I don't drink it

If goals to games ratio's were the fantasy land, you suggest.....why are they so widely used?

I have to say, I am a bit sceptical of stats in football, generally, but I think the goals to games ratio's are one of the better ones to consider.

Hey Ho.....we'll have to agree to disagree on this.

 

[TRO]

20 minutes ago, gwi1890 said:

Tell that to Jordan Rhodes and Alexander Mirtovic

I did say, it doesn't happen in all cases....but it still happens in some.

I don't think Rhodes has played in the prem on a permanent basis?

[gwi1890]

1 hour ago, TRO said:

I did say, it doesn't happen in all cases....but it still happens in some.

I don't think Rhodes has played in the prem on a permanent basis?

Played for Norwich and Middlesborough I believe, I could have gone on really, Rudy Gestede , Adam Armstrong , Solanke, Patrick Bamford might have proven his doubters wrong , I think the only player that has replicated his championship stats is Jamie Vardy. And that’s not a knock on anybody btw.

Edited January 18, 2022 by gwi1890

[bobzy]

14 hours ago, nick76 said:

He’s 26

FWIW, he's very recently turned 26 (which I, personally, still consider young ) and this is his second season in the Premier League.  I think it's fair to say he's still a bit green at this level, even if he's done well for us so far.

[Zatman]

1 hour ago, gwi1890 said:

Played for Norwich and Middlesborough I believe, I could have gone on really, Rudy Gestede , Adam Armstrong , Solanke, Patrick Bamford might have proven his doubters wrong , I think the only player that has replicated his championship stats is Jamie Vardy. And that’s not a knock on anybody btw.

Dwight Gayle is another and Pukki

[nick76]

13 minutes ago, bobzy said:

FWIW, he's very recently turned 26 (which I, personally, still consider young ) and this is his second season in the Premier League.  I think it's fair to say he's still a bit green at this level, even if he's done well for us so far.

But the talk on this forum for the last two weeks is that Digne (28) and Coutinho (29) is too old but now 26 is young.  I don’t know where I’m going with this comment…

[Ouchmefoot]

17 minutes ago, bobzy said:

FWIW, he's very recently turned 26 (which I, personally, still consider young ) and this is his second season in the Premier League.  I think it's fair to say he's still a bit green at this level, even if he's done well for us so far.

There was a highlights video for his birthday showing all the goals he has scored for Villa. About half of them went "Lovely ball from Grealish...WATKINS!" or something similar.

He's doing fine this season without the same level of service. Hopefully our January signings will get him up to the same tally as last season.

[Zatman]

I dont think he has an attitude problem but his reaction to Ings signing has been poor. 

[TRO]

3 hours ago, nick76 said:

But the talk on this forum for the last two weeks is that Digne (28) and Coutinho (29) is too old but now 26 is young.  I don’t know where I’m going with this comment…

Well, when Modric is still turning it on at 36....28 & 29 is at their peak.

With all the modern fitness and food disciplines,the pitches and ancillary equipment........ the age limitations do seem to have risen, depending on the individual of course.

I don't think 29 is a problem for elite players.

[TRO]

5 hours ago, gwi1890 said:

Played for Norwich and Middlesborough I believe, I could have gone on really, Rudy Gestede , Adam Armstrong , Solanke, Patrick Bamford might have proven his doubters wrong , I think the only player that has replicated his championship stats is Jamie Vardy. And that’s not a knock on anybody btw.

but Ivan toney went from Division 1 ....1.9:1 to Championship 1.5: 1....and scored more goals per game, sure he has dropped off this season, in the Prem mainly due to injury....I have been clear to say, it doesn't work every time, but it does work sometimes.

My point is.....its not a one off to go from a lower division  to a higher division and score more goals not less.....so by deduction, across leagues, (not big jumps) ( goals per game )is not as misleading as some think.

I am sure Einstein could have come up with a more sophisticated measure, but as a thumb rule, its not bad.

I am not dismissing, Nick's point out of hand....but I still think its a decent appraisal tool.

Stats are becoming a more widely used measurement of modern day football and I have mixed views on it, because so many factors are involved.....The discerning eye is still a good way to judge a player...but that is subjective too.

Edited January 18, 2022 by TRO

[gwi1890]

15 minutes ago, TRO said:

but Ivan toney went from Division 1 ....1.9:1 to Championship 1.5: 1....and scored more goals per game, sure he has dropped off this season, in the Prem mainly due to injury....I have been clear to say, it doesn't work every time, but it does work sometimes.

My point is.....its not a one off to go from a lower division  to a higher division and score more goals not less.....so by deduction, across leagues, (not big jumps) ( goals per game )is not as misleading as some think.

I am sure Einstein could have come up with a more sophisticated measure, but as a thumb rule, its not bad.

I am not dismissing, Nick's point out of hand....but I still think its a decent appraisal tool.

Stats are becoming a more widely used measurement of modern day football and I have mixed views on it, because so many factors are involved.....The discerning eye is still a good way to judge a player...but that is subjective too.

I get what you are saying players develop differently some earlier some later , some are better in different systems, Mo Salah being a good example I don’t think many Liverpool fans were excited when he arrived but he  soon changed a few minds, But you rarely see player jumping from the championship to the premier league and beating their championship goal tally, League 1 to championship yes but the premier league is a different beast. Injury or not Ivan Toney wouldn’t be scoring 33 goals in the premier league. Championship to Prem Vardy is the only one in the past 10 years I can think of that has beaten his championship tally.

Stats are a useful tool to gain information about a player and work out how the player would work within a system, they don’t tell the whole story but useful none the less.