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Generic Virus Thread


villakram

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3 hours ago, Mozzavfc said:

Just general holiday

Everyone going in at the airport is getting checked with an infrared camera, so I think they are assuming that'll be enough for now, but I don't think they can afford to shut the tourist locations.

Was speaking to the hotel staff this morning in Galle and they were dreading the cricket being cancelled as every hotel in the area is fully booked. Today's cancellation will probably lead to half the staff being laid off 

It's such an amazing place.

They've stopped issuing visas on arrival, but India has stopped issuing all visas so it's fair to assume they'll follow suit.

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3 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s funny how many people think Boris Johnson is making these decisions without expert advice. They think he’s just watching the telly and making a decision. He’s not Donald Trump.

The difficult part is conceptualising a different way of thinking that runs counter to our instinct as individuals socialised to worry about every life. We are emotional beings. 

The people designing the strategic response to the outbreak have to do so entirely without emotion, prioritising the whole. The ‘end’ is to get to a stable position on the other side of this with the least number of deaths, a population that’s resilient to this virus and a functioning economy that enables the state to continuing doing the things it should.

In that context their actions make sense, but the state is operating in a different moral paradigm to us as individuals. That’s the hard thing to get your noodle around. 

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18 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s funny how many people think Boris Johnson is making these decisions without expert advice. They think he’s just watching the telly and making a decision. He’s not Donald Trump.

Yes, but the problem is certain decisions go beyond the realm of epidemiology and are inherently political judgments.

I personally think Boris is no moron and is acting in what he thinks are the country's best interests, I just worry that (a) what he perceives as "the country's best interests" are a touch different from mine (i.e. his priorities skew more towards keeping the economy going, rather than mitigating the impact of economic shutdown with bridging measures), and (b) some of the advice he is getting on the behavioural / psychological front may be faulty.

Certainly this notion they keep repeating that sports matches shouldn't be cancelled because everyone will watch in the pub... is illogical. Pubs next to sports stadiums are usually packed out before and after the match. People travel on public transport from hundreds of miles away. Millions of people will watch the match in a pub anyway. This whole rationale is nonsense, and is not a scientific issue, but a flaw in modelling assumptions (modelling is not science). We shouldn't pretend that this decision is informed by medical science, because it is not really a medical question.

There are lot of decisions that fall into a similar category: some of the inputs are medical, the outcomes are medical, but really they fall more into the realm of social psychology / economics / politics / urban geography, etc. These are not disciplines that have a superb track record of always getting everything right, although I've no doubt the people guiding Boris on this are among the better practitioners of each of those disciplines. But let's be realistic, the govt will make some mistakes, even with the best advice in the world.

Edited by KentVillan
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All European countries except the UK, Sweden, Finland, Holland, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Estonia and Latvia have now closed their schools at least temporarily.

29 countries going one way and these ones the opposite. Hopefully both approaches will turn out successful.

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16 minutes ago, sne said:

All European countries except the UK, Sweden, Finland, Holland, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Estonia and Latvia have now closed their schools at least temporarily.

29 countries going one way and these ones the opposite. Hopefully both approaches will turn out successful.

We're probably taking this Brexit thing too serious

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44 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s funny how many people think Boris Johnson is making these decisions without expert advice. They think he’s just watching the telly and making a decision. He’s not Donald Trump.

Though the chopping and changing doesn't really suggest a comprehensive strategy.

Take the local elections, for instance.

Earlier today they said that they thought the local elections in May should go ahead. Now: they're put off for 12 months.

 

Edited by snowychap
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I know someone who has just gone to Benidorm and from midnight tonight all bars and restaurants etc are to close for 15 days. This is across whole of Valencia community and Madrid I think. Gonna be thousands of Brits over there.

 

Edited by markavfc40
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It looks like every major organisation has released a statement in the last few days saying 'we are ok to carry on' only to have reversed their judgement yesterday or today.

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1 hour ago, KentVillan said:

These are not disciplines that have a superb track record of always getting everything right

Indeed. They are, in fact, going through an enormous replication crisis in which it turns out that most (and I feel confident using the word 'most', as in above 50%) of the findings in these fields cannot be replicated in subsequent studies. 

Epidemiology is not without its problems, as a discipline, but I put a hell of a lot more faith in their conclusions than those from the 'behavioural psychology' department. 

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Just now, HanoiVillan said:

Indeed. They are, in fact, going through an enormous replication crisis in which it turns out that most (and I feel confident using the word 'most', as in above 50%) of the findings in these fields cannot be replicated in subsequent studies. 

Epidemiology is not without its problems, as a discipline, but I put a hell of a lot more faith in their conclusions than those from the 'behavioural psychology' department. 

Yup people with BAs should not call themselves scientists in the first place

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Whilst it’s likely we’ll all get it at some point during the year it seems the size of your exposure is important. If you are otherwise healthy and get a reduced exposure your chances of seeing relatively minor symptoms seem to be pretty good. However medical staff in China, treating the sick day after day, were getting badly affected with even healthy young doctors and nurses dying. 

Hence the importance of taking hygiene and distancing precautions, ultimately it might not prevent you from getting it but you might get a lower dose. 

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Wow, even Tories now turning on Johnson and saying he is clearly trying to kill as many old people as possible:

A councillor in an English village where one of the first UK cases of coronavirus was confirmed has described the government’s strategy of tackling the disease as “a crime against our country”.

Samantha Flower, who is a member of the Conservative party and a social care manager for Sheffield City council, said: “I’m very concerned. They [the UK government] are saying they want as many people to get this disease to create a herd immunisation. But it won’t. My suspicion is that they don’t have the money for social care or NHS so that the weak and the old die.

“I’m saying that as a Conservative councillor and I don’t care if I get sacked. You judge a society by how they treat their vulnerable people. You judge leadership by how it treats its most vulnerable people.  

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-share-markets-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news?page=with:block-5e6ba9178f085e564ad83a2f#block-5e6ba9178f085e564ad83a2f 

Edited by Kingman
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