Kiwivillan Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Villarocker said: West Ham have a decent run-in though. One of two best fixtures of next 10 before weekend gone was Brighton at home. The other is Southampton at home who have worst home form in league but been decent away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imavillan Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, villalad21 said: Or maybe because Us and Norwich got the joint worst defensive record in the league. Seriously. It's not rocket science. If you have the worst defensive record you are likely to go down. Exactly this.... We have only kept 4 clean sheets all season and we are the only team in the Premier league who have not kept a clean sheet away from home. Shocking. For us to stay up we are clearly going to have to rely on our home form as i just cannot see our away form improving. We need to take points from the so called big boys, Spurs, Man U, Arsenal, Chelsea. Our defenders are too 'casual' in there approach and try to play the ball out of defense far too often when sometimes the better option is to hoof it away as the legend Paul McGrath did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakefieldVillan Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just came to this thread, literally 5 seconds later "Sweet Caroline" came on the radio.. It's ok lads, we're staying up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 The 538 current predictor, which is a Monte Carlo simulator: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ Currently has us going down on goal difference, while tied on points with Bournemouth and Watford. Our probability of relegation has actually fallen slightly from the last time I looked, when it was exactly 50%. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osmark86 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 (edited) Our biggest problem this season is our defence, that should be abundantly clear. Thankfully we also have a better attack than a lot of teams around us which could be our saving grace. It is just so frustrating that the outcomes of pretty much all games we play is either win or lose and more often than win, we lose. if only we could play for a couple of more draws then we'd be in a lot better shape. I sincerely hope that our coaching team is doing everything within their powers to address this blatant issue. they're no idiots for sure and can definitely see that this is our weak spot. now if all the former strategies to rectify this have been ineffective, try something different! we need better pressing collectively and we need better movement and for god's sake practice passing! we fix this, we stay up. we don't, we run the risk of going down as we will be inept att supressing quality teams. I still have faith that we can make it across the line, but it really will be down to the last day so hold tight lads! Edited February 3, 2020 by osmark86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Farlz Posted February 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 3, 2020 Relegation this time round would really be gutting. I wasn't bothered about the last one in 2016, at that point there was nothing to like about the club and quite frankly I was looking forward to the Championship. I'd also given up completely by January so I didn't have a care in the world when it eventually happened. This time it's a different story, I genuinely like the players a lot and if we stay up really think we'd see improvements. If we dropped, losing Grealish, Mings and McGinn all in one go is just something I'm not ready for. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 36 minutes ago, Farlz said: Relegation this time round would really be gutting. I wasn't bothered about the last one in 2016, at that point there was nothing to like about the club and quite frankly I was looking forward to the Championship. I'd also given up completely by January so I didn't have a care in the world when it eventually happened. This time it's a different story, I genuinely like the players a lot and if we stay up really think we'd see improvements. If we dropped, losing Grealish, Mings and McGinn all in one go is just something I'm not ready for. Conversely, even if we did get relegated we'd be in much better shape than this time last summer had we not got promoted. I think McGinn would stay to be honest unless he has a barn storming end to the season, and we'll keep most of our other players. We'd romp the championship imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, Keyblade said: Conversely, even if we did get relegated we'd be in much better shape than this time last summer had we not got promoted. I think McGinn would stay to be honest unless he has a barn storming end to the season, and we'll keep most of our other players. We'd romp the championship imo. If we do end up going down, it's going to take us quite a long adjustment period to learn to play without Grealish IMO. Everything goes through him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 13 hours ago, imavillan said: Exactly this.... We have only kept 4 clean sheets all season and we are the only team in the Premier league who have not kept a clean sheet away from home. Shocking. For us to stay up we are clearly going to have to rely on our home form as i just cannot see our away form improving. We need to take points from the so called big boys, Spurs, Man U, Arsenal, Chelsea. Our defenders are too 'casual' in there approach and try to play the ball out of defense far too often when sometimes the better option is to hoof it away as the legend Paul McGrath did. Our away form improved actually. we had 4 out of 10 games in the first half. 4 out of 3 games so far. We were robbed at Palace, played 5 of the called big boys away. We had injury crises at Wolves. So in reality the only two which looked easier were Sheff Utd who’s having a great season, and the shocker at Watford. Then again last game at Bournemouth. We still play Southampton, Newcastle, Everton, West Ham, Leicester, Liverpool. We’ve drawn with Leicester away and no reason why can’t we repeat it. 5-7 points are affordable from the other 4 games. 7-9 points away aren’t out of the equation. Then we have Spurs, Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Sheff Utd, Palace and Wolves at home. I don’t think another 7-9 points are impossible. It’s not the easiest run but hopefully we go into Spurs game while we still out of bottom 3. It would give us huge confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Saturday there are two games, and Sunday there are two. All of them are like if you'll be watching Villa. Everton and Crystal Palace, Then Brighton and Watford. Sheffield United and Bournemouth, Man City and West Ham. Basically all bottom 7 apart from us and Norwich. A draw between Brighton and Watford, a loss for Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham would be fantastic before we play Spurs a week later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imavillan Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 hours ago, abdulaziz1 said: Our away form improved actually. we had 4 out of 10 games in the first half. 4 out of 3 games so far. We were robbed at Palace, played 5 of the called big boys away. We had injury crises at Wolves. So in reality the only two which looked easier were Sheff Utd who’s having a great season, and the shocker at Watford. Then again last game at Bournemouth. We still play Southampton, Newcastle, Everton, West Ham, Leicester, Liverpool. We’ve drawn with Leicester away and no reason why can’t we repeat it. 5-7 points are affordable from the other 4 games. 7-9 points away aren’t out of the equation. Then we have Spurs, Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Sheff Utd, Palace and Wolves at home. I don’t think another 7-9 points are impossible. It’s not the easiest run but hopefully we go into Spurs game while we still out of bottom 3. It would give us huge confidence. I'm not sure where you get that we have improved from? Our away for is appalling. Not a single clean sheet all season. Not one. That's a damming stat !!!!!! We currently have 25 points. 17 points from home matches and 8 from away matches. Take a look at the tables and it will tell you everything. We are in 19th position overall for away games. P 13 - W 2- D 2 - L9 - F 16 - A 26 - Points 8 We are in 14th position overall for home games. P 12 - W 5 - D 2 - L 5 - F 16 - A 21 - Points 17 We have a soft under belly and some how or another the team have to start to grind out matches and start keeping clean sheets. Sadly it's something we never really look like doing. We are putting ourselves under so much pressure to do well in our home games. A Win or draw against Bournemouth would have taken some of the pressure off the Spurs game. Now it's a must win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdulaziz1 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 29 minutes ago, imavillan said: I'm not sure where you get that we have improved from? Our away for is appalling. Not a single clean sheet all season. Not one. That's a damming stat !!!!!! We currently have 25 points. 17 points from home matches and 8 from away matches. Take a look at the tables and it will tell you everything. We are in 19th position overall for away games. P 13 - W 2- D 2 - L9 - F 16 - A 26 - Points 8 We are in 14th position overall for home games. P 12 - W 5 - D 2 - L 5 - F 16 - A 21 - Points 17 We have a soft under belly and some how or another the team have to start to grind out matches and start keeping clean sheets. Sadly it's something we never really look like doing. We are putting ourselves under so much pressure to do well in our home games. A Win or draw against Bournemouth would have taken some of the pressure off the Spurs game. Now it's a must win. We were 20th in that table, up until our last two away games, won't you consider that an improvement? I agree with you that we should've taken something out of Bournemouth, but even a home game would have gone that way. We were lucky with our goal against Watford. We had one of our worst home games against Southampton. Actually apart from the Watford game, I don't remember having a nightmare game away from home (especially when you consider who we played). But we were useless against Southampton, Leicester and City. All could've gone to a historical results (it has against City actually). Looking at the stat itself without looking at the full analysis can mislead sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lerner's Driver Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 hours ago, Farlz said: Relegation this time round would really be gutting. I wasn't bothered about the last one in 2016, at that point there was nothing to like about the club and quite frankly I was looking forward to the Championship. I'd also given up completely by January so I didn't have a care in the world when it eventually happened. This time it's a different story, I genuinely like the players a lot and if we stay up really think we'd see improvements. If we dropped, losing Grealish, Mings and McGinn all in one go is just something I'm not ready for. Might as well contemplate it at least, then it won't be a horrible shock. They could well go even if we do just about hang in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imavillan Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, abdulaziz1 said: We were 20th in that table, up until our last two away games, won't you consider that an improvement? I agree with you that we should've taken something out of Bournemouth, but even a home game would have gone that way. We were lucky with our goal against Watford. We had one of our worst home games against Southampton. Actually apart from the Watford game, I don't remember having a nightmare game away from home (especially when you consider who we played). But we were useless against Southampton, Leicester and City. All could've gone to a historical results (it has against City actually). Looking at the stat itself without looking at the full analysis can mislead sometimes. You can dress it up as much as you like. 8 points from a possible 39 away from home is woeful and partly the reason why we are where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 We were pretty woeful in the Championship without Jack. If we lose Jack, Mings and McGinn i can see us staying in the Championship for many years. Disaster if we go down this season. It really is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 On 03/02/2020 at 15:12, HanoiVillan said: The 538 current predictor, which is a Monte Carlo simulator: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ Currently has us going down on goal difference, while tied on points with Bournemouth and Watford. Our probability of relegation has actually fallen slightly from the last time I looked, when it was exactly 50%. So if you ignore the table, it's basically saying: Norwich 91% to go down West Ham, Villa, Bournemouth, and Watford all in this 35-45% probability range Outside chance of Burnley, Palace, Newcastle or Brighton. So paradoxically, there's only one team that's actually more likely to go down than not, which shows how competitive the relegation fight is this season. Football is a very hard sport to predict. I believe 538's Nate Silver made his name in baseball prediction, a sport which is relatively easy to predict (think I read somewhere that baseball predictions are about 70% accurate, whereas football predictions are more like 55% accurate). Football involves much more luck on a match-by-match basis, and now we're at the squeaky bum phase of the season, this could all come down to a couple of refereeing decisions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ferguson1 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 On 03/02/2020 at 15:12, HanoiVillan said: The 538 current predictor, which is a Monte Carlo simulator: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ Currently has us going down on goal difference, while tied on points with Bournemouth and Watford. Our probability of relegation has actually fallen slightly from the last time I looked, when it was exactly 50%. Should your prediction come true, our ruled out goal at Palace is going to give me sleepless nights for months! It still makes my piss boil even now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Humanoid Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 hours ago, villalad21 said: We were pretty woeful in the Championship without Jack. If we lose Jack, Mings and McGinn i can see us staying in the Championship for many years. Disaster if we go down this season. It really is Just to add to that, Mings and McGinn were in the team when we couldnt get a win whilst Jack was out. With those 3 gone, yes there could be 100m+ to spend, but that doesn't guaruntee anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
screwdriver Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I wouldn't trust jesus or smith to build another team. especilly without Grealish. Grealish is the one who gets them both out of jail The solution is for the team to bust their balls and stay up then add proven quality to the team, no more gambles, no more belgium or brentford sheight. 35m plus players. Look at wolves. Splashed that big money on Daniel Podence and neto, both his the ground running, you don't hear nuno talking about adjustment getting up to speed with the premier. he just gets plug and play talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLDVILLAIN Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I totally agree we are heading fast towards the championship, we dont have any strength in midfield and our defence when pressed is a shambles. If we have any hope of staying up we are going to have to steal points from the big boys considering we cant seem to get points from those around us. Its going to be major squeaky bum time soon and i hope the boys can pull it together,grow some balls and show passion and commitment to the shirt..UTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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