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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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Very unlikely.

And yet.....

Can you conceive of us beating Millwall, Bristol, Blackburn and Boro at Home ?

And Rotherham, Bolton, and Forest Away ? Throw in a Draw Away at Blues, and a defeat at Wednesday ?

Its conceivable If we play as we did today.

Thatd leave us on 68 Points, and probably needing 2 Wins against Norwich and Leeds, who could both already be Promoted .

Unlikely. But intriguing enough.

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6 minutes ago, terrytini said:

Very unlikely.

And yet.....

Can you conceive of us beating Millwall, Bristol, Blackburn and Boro at Home ?

And Rotherham, Bolton, and Forest Away ? Throw in a Draw Away at Blues, and a defeat at Wednesday ?

Its conceivable If we play as we did today.

Thatd leave us on 68 Points, and probably needing 2 Wins against Norwich and Leeds, who could both already be Promoted .

Unlikely. But intriguing enough.

 

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Really we need to win all our home games and I just don't see us doing it. Boro will come and park their Pulis bus of course and we'll probably drop points against Millwall.

Five home wins would give us a cracking chance as surely we can't muck up Bolton and Rotherham away.....Anyway that would get us to 69 points.

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4 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Really we need to win all our home games and I just don't see us doing it. Boro will come and park their Pulis bus of course and we'll probably drop points against Millwall.

With Jack fit i think anything is possible.

Today reminded me of how good he actually is at this level

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We'll have a good end to the season, but it feels like this resurgance will have come 2-3 games too late. Theres only one playoff place to play for realistically. Will be so painful if we finish within a couple of points of 6th. 

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Don't.   Just don't. 

The second you even start to think about it with even a modicum of hope or belief the wheels will fly off so fast not even a chassis tether and steel fence will stop them from hitting the crowd. 

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10 minutes ago, PaddytheVillan said:

Never ever going to happen. We were excellent today, but Derby were also terrible, and we have no history of consistency over 10+ games at this level. Plus no Elphick now which means Taylor...

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Think we'll fall short. We'll rue the Leeds, Forest and Baggies away game yet. Can take the ones we were dogshit in but those 3 in particular ( even though Rodriguez cheated us we should of being home and hosed. )

Edited by Johnnyp
Mistake
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I believe it’s a couple games too late. But while it’s still possible, I want to see us chasing it in every game until it’s impossible. It’ll show what kind of team we’re going to be going into next season, I don’t want players who give up because they think they can’t make it.

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19 hours ago, villalad21 said:

With 4 teams above us having a game in hand, you have to keep that in mind.

We're still miles off

Two of those teams are irrelevant (Sheff Utd and Middlesbrough). All that matters is sixth spot, and I think Bristol City can be caught (and will be caught by someone, because their fixtures are brutal).

  • 6. Bristol City.........P 34 Pts 54 GD +8
  • 7. Derby County.........P 34 Pts 51 GD +1
  • 8. Small Heath Alliance.P 35 Pts 50 GD +8
  • 9. Nottingham Forest....P 35 Pts 50 GD +7
  • 10. Hull City...........P 35 Pts 50 GD +2
  • 11. Aston Villa.........P 35 Pts 48 GD +8

Fixtures (I've marked in red any team above Villa):

  • Bristol City: LEE (H), IPS (H), SHU (A), MID (A), WIG (H), WBA (H), AST (A), REA (H), SHW (A), DER (H), MIL (A), HUL (A)
  • Derby County: WIG (H), SHW (H), STO (H), ROT (H), BRE (A), BLA (A), BOL (H), BIR (A), QPR (H), BRI (A), SWA (A), WBA (H)
  • Small Heath: AST (A), MIL (H), PRE (A), WBA (A), LEE (H), SHU (H), IPS (A), DER (H), ROT (A), WIG (H), REA (A)
  • Nott Forest: HUL (H), AST (H), IPS (A), SWA (H), ROT (A), SHW (A), BLA (H), SHU (A), MID (H), QPR (A), BOL (H)
  • Hull City: NOT (A), NOR (A), QPR (H), IPS (A), REA (H), WIG (H), MID (A), WBA (A), SHU (H), SWA (A), BRI (H)
  • Aston Villa: BIR (A), NOT (H), MID (H), BLA (H), SHW (A), ROT (A), BRI (H), BOL (A), MIL (H), LEE (A), NOR (H)

That looks like a lot of potential for points to be dropped - significantly more than the 6-point gap we need to close.

Bristol have 7 stinkers to look forward to.

Derby have by far the easiest run-in, but their squad has been decimated by injuries

We have three very tough games coming up, and if we can get 7 points from these then I think we have a chance. We then need to beat the teams below us, and win the six-pointer against Bristol. It's a very big ask, but I think it's doable. As others have mentioned, those last two games against Leeds and Norwich might be more winnable than they look if both teams have secured automatic promotion.

Edited by KentVillan
mistake in fixtures
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@KentVillan that’s how I see it. 

Its a mini League of 6 sides within a few points of each other, going for one place, the rest is irrelevant....and Bristol have toughest games.

Also there’s an argument that in this League most sides have a good run, and of those 6 we are the only ones who haven’t. So whilst it appears a lot to ask, it’s also a lot to ask of those teams to continue to do as well as they have.

And it will be tough, and it will be tough for all the teams involved, but one of them will do it, so might as well think it might be us....

I still think those last 2 games against possibly promoted sides might be very interesting ...........

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