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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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It’s fair to say starting Sunday we have the most important 7 days of the season coming up. Big IF but should we win all three games (blues, forest, boro) my maths would have us 7th due to permutations in other games with teams playing each other coupled with teams dropping points.

That would leave us with the international break which would give us time to get Axel back in the mix, help Chesters rehabilitation, Lansbury might awaken from the dead and even get some more bodies back. Then it really would be all systems go to the end of the season.

BIG IFS but not impossible.

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It’s fair to say starting Sunday we have the most important 7 days of the season coming up. Big IF but should we win all three games (blues, forest, boro) my maths would have us 7th due to permutations in other games with teams playing each other coupled with teams dropping points.

That would leave us with the international break which would give us time to get Axel back in the mix, help Chesters rehabilitation, Lansbury might awaken from the dead and even get some more bodies back. Then it really would be all systems go to the end of the season.

BIG IFS but not impossible.

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1 hour ago, Mark_1989 said:

It’s fair to say starting Sunday we have the most important 7 days of the season coming up. Big IF but should we win all three games (blues, forest, boro) my maths would have us 7th due to permutations in other games with teams playing each other coupled with teams dropping points.

That would leave us with the international break which would give us time to get Axel back in the mix, help Chesters rehabilitation, Lansbury might awaken from the dead and even get some more bodies back. Then it really would be all systems go to the end of the season.

BIG IFS but not impossible.

not at all impossible, aside from the bolded part

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Smith has to do something that he has only done once before in his time with Villa, and that's to win back to back games. I hope he does and the Derby game does kick start our Fulham-esque charge up the table at the business end of the season. Taking the form we need to get into the top 6 into the plays offs will make us strong favourites for promotion. 

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14 minutes ago, New_Hope said:

Think it's better to accept that I won't happen this season and then anything else is a bonus?

Indeed, this is why people always lose their nut when results don't go our way.

We are either winning the League or getting relegated.

 

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1 hour ago, Merson08 said:

Smith has to do something that he has only done once before in his time with Villa, and that's to win back to back games. I hope he does and the Derby game does kick start our Fulham-esque charge up the table at the business end of the season. Taking the form we need to get into the top 6 into the plays offs will make us strong favourites for promotion. 

Technically he won 3 in a row that time so did it twice 😉

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Under Smith with Jack in the team his ppg is 2.22 and looking back over those games we still couldn’t defend and we should have beaten Forest and WBA.  

If we can repeat that form it would put us on 72 points which could be very close.

its a long shot but it’s possible.

 

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6 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Do you really miss parking the bus and winning by the odd goal on the break?  I admit it nearly got us promoted. But it never felt convincing. 

Many have convinced themselves this didn't happen. It's weird.

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Just now, Vive_La_Villa said:

People have short memories.

It's a mix. Some have short memories.

Some really enjoyed the wins, which is great. But the football wasn't good to watch for me, and every single game we didn't win was really crap. The wins made the games passable but not enjoyable.

Some have decided they don't like Smith and have become Sheff Wed fans hoping Bruce picks up points there. That's the weirdest one.

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6 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

It's a mix. Some have short memories.

Some really enjoyed the wins, which is great. But the football wasn't good to watch for me, and every single game we didn't win was really crap. The wins made the games passable but not enjoyable.

Some have decided they don't like Smith and have become Sheff Wed fans hoping Bruce picks up points there. That's the weirdest one.

I have to admit I used to defend Bruce due to the results but I can probably count on one hand the games I thought we played really well and were deserved winners.  I used to think the players were just limited and to an extent that’s true (as the past 2 months have shown). But there’s no doubt Bruce had a defence first philosophy and it wasn’t much fun to watch. 

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3 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Under Smith with Jack in the team his ppg is 2.22 and looking back over those games we still couldn’t defend and we should have beaten Forest and WBA.  

If we can repeat that form it would put us on 72 points which could be very close.

its a long shot but it’s possible.

 

We didn't have monster Mings then 

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One bit of hope is that the teams currently occupying 6th and 7th are perennial bottlers Bristol City and Derby.

We still have to play Bristol City at home as well as 2 of the teams between us and then, one of them being this Sunday.

Derby and Bristol still have to play each other, with Bristol having to face 6 promotion hopefuls in the run in (8 if you count Hull and Wednesday as promotion hopefuls) and Derby with the easiest run in with only 4. For comparison we have 7 including the top 2 to play, though one or both could already have promotion wrapped up by the time we face them.

One thing that gives me hope is the way we've played against our rivals under Smith. In all honesty we should have had maximum points from Derby, SHA, Forest, Boro, West Brom if it weren't for calamitous goalkeeping and refereeing, but anything like 11 points out of 15 again and we're looking good.

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7 hours ago, New_Hope said:

Think it's better to accept that I won't happen this season and then anything else is a bonus?

Our fate is in ours and Bristol Citys hands. If Bristol City have a good end to the season then we dont go up. If they dont, and we finish the season on a high, then we could well take 6th spot. 

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