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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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2 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

One bit of hope is that the teams currently occupying 6th and 7th are perennial bottlers Bristol City and Derby.

We still have to play Bristol City at home as well as 2 of the teams between us and then, one of them being this Sunday.

Derby and Bristol still have to play each other, with Bristol having to face 6 promotion hopefuls in the run in (8 if you count Hull and Wednesday as promotion hopefuls) and Derby with the easiest run in with only 4. For comparison we have 7 including the top 2 to play, though one or both could already have promotion wrapped up by the time we face them.

One thing that gives me hope is the way we've played against our rivals under Smith. In all honesty we should have had maximum points from Derby, SHA, Forest, Boro, West Brom if it weren't for calamitous goalkeeping and refereeing, but anything like 11 points out of 15 again and we're looking good.

To be honest I’m not that concerned about our rivals. I think they will all drop a lot of points.

My concern is whether we can win enough games after the last few months. 

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11 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

To be honest I’m not that concerned about our rivals. I think they will all drop a lot of points.

My concern is whether we can win enough games after the last few months. 

With Jack back I think we're going to go on another run like we did at the start of Smith's reign. We'll see against SHA if we've actually turned a corner or if Derby were just that bad.

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36 minutes ago, Made In Aston said:

Bristol city has got leeds, Ipswich, Sheffield utd and Middlesbrough (their game in hand) in the next 4 fixtures. Derby is currently losing to wigan (hope i dont jinx it!). If we get our sh**together 6th place is still very much on. 

Yup, you jinxed it.

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On 03/03/2019 at 01:57, KentVillan said:

 

  • 6. Bristol City.........P 34 Pts 54 GD +8
  • 7. Derby County.........P 35 Pts 54 GD +2
  • 8. Small Heath Alliance.P 35 Pts 50 GD +8
  • 9. Nottingham Forest....P 35 Pts 50 GD +7
  • 10. Hull City...........P 35 Pts 50 GD +2
  • 11. Aston Villa.........P 35 Pts 48 GD +8

Fixtures (I've marked in red any team above Villa):

  • Bristol City: LEE (H), IPS (H), SHU (A), MID (A), WIG (H), WBA (H), AST (A), REA (H), SHW (A), DER (H), MIL (A), HUL (A)
  • Derby County: SHW (H), STO (H), ROT (H), BRE (A), BLA (A), BOL (H), BIR (A), QPR (H), BRI (A), SWA (A), WBA (H)
  • Small Heath: AST (A), MIL (H), PRE (A), WBA (A), LEE (H), SHU (H), IPS (A), DER (H), ROT (A), WIG (H), REA (A)
  • Nott Forest: HUL (H), AST (H), IPS (A), SWA (H), ROT (A), SHW (A), BLA (H), SHU (A), MID (H), QPR (A), BOL (H)
  • Hull City: NOT (A), NOR (A), QPR (H), IPS (A), REA (H), WIG (H), MID (A), WBA (A), SHU (H), SWA (A), BRI (H)
  • Aston Villa: BIR (A), NOT (H), MID (H), BLA (H), SHW (A), ROT (A), BRI (H), BOL (A), MIL (H), LEE (A), NOR (H)

Just updated my previous post with the Derby-Wigan result.

If Bristol lose to Leeds, then you'd probably have Derby as favourites for 6th, because their run-in is so much easier. Betfair have got us at around 12/1 for 6th place, so it's unlikely for now.

Need Brucey to do us a huge favour on Saturday 😶

 

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If's and But's (updated)

Well so far it's not going well... but the weekend results could still go our way... we then have two games in a week to change it even further.

 

Sheff Wed's lose midweek - draw, Wednesday still only on 48 points ✅

Derby lose midweek - win ❎

Forest and Hull draw on Saturday

Derby and Sheff Wed's draw on Saturday

Leeds beat Bristol on Saturday

We beat Blues

 

 Suddenly the league looks like this and we suddenly look to be in a very promising position.

7 - Derby - 55 points

6 - Bristol - 54 points

8 - Villa - 51 points

9 - Forest - 51 points

10 - Hull - 51 points

11 - Blues - 50 points

Edited by wilko154
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1 hour ago, Made In Aston said:

Bristol city has got leeds, Ipswich, Sheffield utd and Middlesbrough (their game in hand) in the next 4 fixtures. Derby is currently losing to wigan (hope i dont jinx it!). If we get our sh**together 6th place is still very much on. 

You did. 😥

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If anyone wants cheering up, we have the 2nd hardest run of games til the end of the season.

The scum have the easiest run in the whole league.

I'll go now before I get anyone too excited....🙄

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1 hour ago, Demitri_C said:

Look at last two games. Game over

They'll be on the beach by then with added champers hopefully. 

Edited by sidcow
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10 hours ago, Hornso said:

Next three games are huge.

Smash the next 3 games. Its the 3 after, that worries me. Its the Dean Smith way. Brilliant against the teams we should have a battle against and we drop points against the teams we should roll over. 

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15 minutes ago, Merson08 said:

Smash the next 3 games. Its the 3 after, that worries me. Its the Dean Smith way. Brilliant against the teams we should have a battle against and we drop points against the teams we should roll over. 

To be honest, Jack injury came at the beginning of easy fixtures, so we still can’t say how we’d look like with him in our side.

Anyway, even Middlesbrough could get out of the playoffs (I’m not saying we’re the ones who are going to be instead of them. But we need to look at their games too. 

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1 hour ago, Merson08 said:

Smash the next 3 games. Its the 3 after, that worries me. Its the Dean Smith way. Brilliant against the teams we should have a battle against and we drop points against the teams we should roll over. 

I'll raise you that for some reason this has actually become the VILLA way, not even just with Smith here.

Bruce VS Wolves for example and i'm sure there are many others.

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23 hours ago, Mark_1989 said:

It’s fair to say starting Sunday we have the most important 7 days of the season coming up. Big IF but should we win all three games (blues, forest, boro) my maths would have us 7th due to permutations in other games with teams playing each other coupled with teams dropping points.

That would leave us with the international break which would give us time to get Axel back in the mix, help Chesters rehabilitation, Lansbury might awaken from the dead and even get some more bodies back. Then it really would be all systems go to the end of the season.

BIG IFS but not impossible.

love your optimism but just cant see it happening. TBH are we ready as a club to go back!

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