trekka Posted January 29, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said: We're all doomed aren't we? Afraid so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follyfoot Posted January 29, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, trekka said: Oh how times have changed. “ so I said to Monica, do you like chicken“ she said “yeah” so I said “well suck this it’s foul” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lichfield Dean Posted January 31, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 31, 2022 I assumed Boris had asked Putin to invade Ukraine this afternoon. Maybe Putin forgot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mozzavfc Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 British Nationals also being told to leave now by the foreign office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 They went into Ukraine during the 2014 Olympics so timeline fits their modus operandi. No idea why thou, might be a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 11, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 11, 2022 Ukraine to be a much smaller country in 5, 4, 3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Chindie said: Ukraine to be a much smaller country in 5, 4, 3... Crimea was bad but this is potentially on an entirely different scale. Thing about war is it reliably never turns out the way the people who start it expect it will. UK, US & a handful of others have spent weeks pre-supplying a Ukrainian insurgency with all manner of nasties. They won’t stop Russia getting in, but the Motherland’s finest may not fancy hanging about for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 (edited) 34 minutes ago, Awol said: Crimea was bad but this is potentially on an entirely different scale. Thing about war is it reliably never turns out the way the people who start it expect it will. UK, US & a handful of others have spent weeks pre-supplying a Ukrainian insurgency with all manner of nasties. They won’t stop Russia getting in, but the Motherland’s finest may not fancy hanging about for too long. What’s the objective here, is it to annex more Ukrainian land like they did Crimea? Are they going to try and storm their way to Kiev, a bit like what they did with Tbilisi a few years back to force them to surrender? When you say nasties, in what sense do you mean? Edited February 12, 2022 by Tayls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 12, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 12, 2022 My best guess would be Russia wants to annex more of Ukraine - the east leans towards Moscow and Putin has spent a decade ensuring loyal fighters are in strong supply there - and to ensure Ukraine is turned away from the West for good. The gamble is basically whether the West has any desire to fight over it. I'd bet Putin thinks not, but also that he's well prepared to commit to a long low level insurgency type conflict if needs be. And I'm not sure the West is. It sets a grim precedent though, and suggests Putin can push for more of Eastern Europe to fall into his hands. It also would lead to those countries questioning whether they really want to throw their hat in the ring with a group of nations that didn't stand up to the bullying of Russia, twice, against a nation that is much more important than many of the others that might want to get into NATO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YLN Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 This was a nice explainer for me who knows nothing. I don't have any sense of how accurate it is, but I'm sure an informed person might let us know 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Tayls said: What’s the objective here, is it to annex more Ukrainian land like they did Crimea? Are they going to try and storm their way to Kiev, a bit like what they did with Tbilisi a few years back to force them to surrender? When you say nasties, in what sense do you mean? Only the Russians know their true objective. If they take everything east of the Dneipr river then they secure Crimea & Donbass, take most of Ukraine’s industrial capacity, end Ukraine as a state in its current form and assert Russian power over its near abroad while defying the West and undermining European security architecture. If they try to take the whole of Ukraine then the chance of direct conflict with NATO members increases significantly, b/c Russian combat forces would have to push up against Poland, Romania etc. Either way the West will rightly help them to resist Russian invasion with everything short of direct involvement. Beyond Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk the Russians have no support at all, and possibly not even a majority support anywhere beyond Crimea. We’re supplying them anti-tank and Surface to Air Missiles, plus lots of more niche stuff. As importantly we’ve lots of people there advising them on the finer details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mozzavfc Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Also the Russian economy is in the toilet at the moment, and a lot of people in Russia aren't happy with Putin. This gives him a good opportunity to play the war card to boost his ratings. He did the same in Chechnya which increased his approval rating by like 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Surely even Russia couldn’t be so stupid as to kick off a war of this magnitude in this day and age?! Maybe Putin has been playing too much Call of Duty recently and fancied a go in real life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Useful little graphic to picture the size of Ukraine. Even for 150,000+ Russian soldiers that’s a lot of space to occupy, especially as it’s filled with people who don’t want them there. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted February 12, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 12, 2022 What a legacy Putin is looking to leave here. Putin the Warmonger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 12 hours ago, Tayls said: What’s the objective here, is it to annex more Ukrainian land like they did Crimea? Are they going to try and storm their way to Kiev, a bit like what they did with Tbilisi a few years back to force them to surrender? When you say nasties, in what sense do you mean? The likely objective is to get concessions without any conflict at all, but if that is not on the cards then it will probably be an incursion into eastern Ukraine, into those provinces (specifically Donetsk and Luhansk) that are the subject of the Minsk II agreement. I will personally be very surprised if they invade the entire country: while I don't see any reason to think they would be *unable* to do so, the human, military and financial costs would be enormous, and the further they get from the Russian border the less acceptance they would/will find from the populace. I also just think it's completely unnecessary in terms of sending the message they want to send (broadly 'you should not accept Ukraine into Nato'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Right now, anyone with the flight radar app on their phone can still track the US drones flying right up to the Russian border and then throwing a 180 turn. I guess whilst the tracking is still public its still phoney war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 hours ago, chrisp65 said: Right now, anyone with the flight radar app on their phone can still track the US drones flying right up to the Russian border and then throwing a 180 turn. I guess whilst the tracking is still public its still phoney war. When the embassy staff leave you know it’s about to kick off. The Russians “reduced” their embassy staff in the last day or so. That’s what’s triggered everyone else to gtfo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: The likely objective is to get concessions without any conflict at all, but if that is not on the cards then it will probably be an incursion into eastern Ukraine, into those provinces (specifically Donetsk and Luhansk) that are the subject of the Minsk II agreement. I will personally be very surprised if they invade the entire country: while I don't see any reason to think they would be *unable* to do so, the human, military and financial costs would be enormous, and the further they get from the Russian border the less acceptance they would/will find from the populace. I also just think it's completely unnecessary in terms of sending the message they want to send (broadly 'you should not accept Ukraine into Nato'). I think the current military think-tank prediction is they’re most likely to want to quickly encircle Kiev and force regime change. Nobody knows for sure, obviously, but it’s certainly plausible (apparently you can drive a tank from the Belarus border to Kiev in two hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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