Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Jareth]

1 hour ago, sne said:

But American owners still OK?

Edit: Or the Saudis? 

There's no moral high ground amongst these super powers, but Russia seem to be wanting to take over Ukraine - their people do not deserve it and it will destroy their country for a very long time. The least we can do is kick the **** out of UK football. 

[MessiWillSignForVilla]

1 hour ago, Jareth said:

Hopefully this leads to Chelsea's owner being booted out of the country - I mean if they go and overthrow a democracy they are officially cut out of life in all Western countries - absolutely no way their companies can continue sponsorship or their oligarchs can continue their investments.

He's got Israeli and Portuguese citizenship too, almost definitely taken just to protect him and his assets in situations like this.

[sne]

1 minute ago, Jareth said:

There's no moral high ground amongst these super powers, but Russia seem to be wanting to take over Ukraine - their people do not deserve it and it will destroy their country for a very long time. The least we can do is kick the **** out of UK football. 

But where does it end?

Say Abramovitj  goes for Russia in Ukraine, do the Saudis go for their proxy war in Yemen? The US has done this countless times in big or small operations but I would not blame Edens or even Kroenke for it.

English football is foreign owned and the money comes from abroad. Pretty sure the FA and PL will not want to anger the hands that feeds them. No doubt there will be government sanctions against Abramovitj and the likes if Putin presses ahead with a war thou.

[Jareth]

3 minutes ago, sne said:

But where does it end?

Say Abramovitj  goes for Russia in Ukraine, do the Saudis go for their proxy war in Yemen? The US has done this countless times in big or small operations but I would not blame Edens or even Kroenke for it.

English football is foreign owned and the money comes from abroad. Pretty sure the FA and PL will not want to anger the hands that feeds them. No doubt there will be government sanctions against Abramovitj and the likes if Putin presses ahead with a war thou.

Completely agree with the argument that there are highly flawed owners across football - and that there is no apparent logic for who gets to join the club and who doesn't - but it will absolutely take the piss if we cannot as a country make an example of Abramovich in this moment. I hope it happens but it was only 2 years ago we had the Russian Report on Boris which is now entirely forgotten - I have a feeling the current government is as hollow as it appears, and the Russians were right to describe the UK government as entirely consisting of slogans. 

[Awol]

1 minute ago, Jareth said:

I have a feeling the current government is as hollow as it appears, and the Russians were right to describe the UK government as entirely consisting of slogans. 

On a vast range of issues I agree entirely, but on Ukraine they are not. The UK is already the most forward leaning country in Europe in terms of direct support for Ukraine, only the US is doing more right now and that's about size, not will. Ben Wallace deserves buckets of credit for the way he's handled our part in this, and has shown the kind of leadership we've needed for a very long time.

[Jareth]

5 minutes ago, Awol said:

On a vast range of issues I agree entirely, but on Ukraine they are not. The UK is already the most forward leaning country in Europe in terms of direct support for Ukraine, only the US is doing more right now and that's about size, not will. Ben Wallace deserves buckets of credit for the way he's handled our part in this, and has shown the kind of leadership we've needed for a very long time.

I hope that continues when push comes to shove - but Liz Truss' visit t'other day did little towards the cause. We shall have to see. 

[MessiWillSignForVilla]

37 minutes ago, sne said:

But where does it end?

Say Abramovitj  goes for Russia in Ukraine, do the Saudis go for their proxy war in Yemen? The US has done this countless times in big or small operations but I would not blame Edens or even Kroenke for it.

English football is foreign owned and the money comes from abroad. Pretty sure the FA and PL will not want to anger the hands that feeds them. No doubt there will be government sanctions against Abramovitj and the likes if Putin presses ahead with a war thou.

To be fair, the difference would be that Abramovich is an Oligarch with a lot of influence in the Russian government, and supposedly was one of the first to recommend Putin to take over from Yeltsin and Mevdevev from Putin, not to mention Abramovich and Putin are said to be extremely close.

[sne]

4 minutes ago, MessiWillSignForVilla said:

To be fair, the difference would be that Abramovich is an Oligarch with a lot of influence in the Russian government, and supposedly was one of the first to recommend Putin to take over from Yeltsin and Mevdevev from Putin, not to mention Abramovich and Putin are said to be extremely close.

Sure, but the Saudi owners are the actual ones who are waging war in Yemen

[The Fun Factory]

I don't quite understand the west position by loudly declaring that a Russian invasion is imminent, whilst admitting they would not intervene militarily. Ukraine have kept asking the west to dampen down the rhetoric and that obviously hasn't got through. Putin is loving all of this, it makes Russia look like the bad old bear like in the soviet times and is being treated like a superpower again. Good for his standing at home and to paper over various cracks.

[MessiWillSignForVilla]

3 minutes ago, sne said:

Sure, but the Saudi owners are the actual ones who are waging war in Yemen

I meant more with Edens, but then again, the PIF is totes separate from the Saudi government

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

That's all true, but if he's betting the farm on rebuilding the Russian Empire as a major geopolitical component of a new Eurasian, rather than Euro-Atlantic dominated world order, it doesn't really matter. 

I'd also question the point about renewed Western resolve, if anything it looks a lot like the original EEC countries are more concerned with avoiding confrontation at all costs than demonstrating solidarity with an Eastern Europe that has good reason to be nervous of Russian ambitions. Even under direct pressure in the WH from Biden, Chancellor Schulz wouldn't commit to binning NS2. Macron's peacocking is just that, seeing everything through the (non-existent) paradigm of EU strategic autonomy.  

But on the more immediate issue of go / no-go, the massive snap exercises with Belorussian forces finish on the 20th of Feb, same day that the Olympics end. Open source analysis shows Russian field hospitals being constructed from Belarus to Crimea, and troops have been surged in from as far away as Siberia. He may not have made a final decision yet, but the level of readiness Russian forces are now at cannot be maintained for weeks and months. The West will not allow Russia a veto over the freedom of democratic sovereign states to decide their own economic and military associations, so Putin either backs down in humiliation or goes to war.  The latter seems more likely, imho. 

 

Yeah, it’s a fine judgement. I don’t think he’s looking to rebuild the Russian empire, more that he wants to keep Ukraine as a kindred nation, rather than it becoming ever more aligned to the Western European nations. He wants influence and fraternity, more than direct control. He can either achieve that via “soft” means or via force. The soft means have been countered by the Ukrainian government shutting down Russian aligned opponents, in terms of Oligarchs and media and the hard force method was not taken seriously previously because all the satellite imagery etc. showed forces, but not the vital secondary facilities being in place, so the bluff didn’t work. This time, he’s put the casevac hospitals and logistics centres and so on in place as well. This is why there’s all the alarm about a genuine invasion threat.

you’re right about keeping the forces at the level they are at for much longer. That’s something I’ve also previously posted, and why I said that the “best” moment has already passed, perhaps.

Macron may be preening, but he’s far more effective than the likes of Truss and Johnson and may help with a route out for Putin.

Like I said earlier (I think) the force route is way more of a risk around negative consequences for him than continuing pressure based around the threat of force combined with negotiation. The prize doesn’t seem worth the potential cost of having his stolen riches taken away, Russia weakened by punative sanctions and international isolation even more than that which has arisen from existing offences and Covid. 

[Panto_Villan]

2 hours ago, bickster said:

So you can see it's a stupid thing to claim in the first place? Because it's not happenning is it for some of the reasons you've mentioned and many more besides

So what would be the point in making such a pointless claim? Is it to win points on the internet or as some sort of validation for a journalist to get in the game. No Idea, I have no idea who said it first but they are an idiot

EDIT: To encircle a city you need to get to the other side

Fair enough, when put like that I can see the point you're making better. I think you're being a bit cynical though - although it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, I think factoids like this are useful in the sense they put dry statistics into something that connects with the brain better. Anyway, I won't labour the point any further.

 

[Panto_Villan]

18 minutes ago, blandy said:

Yeah, it’s a fine judgement. I don’t think he’s looking to rebuild the Russian empire, more that he wants to keep Ukraine as a kindred nation, rather than it becoming ever more aligned to the Western European nations. He wants influence and fraternity, more than direct control. He can either achieve that via “soft” means or via force. The soft means have been countered by the Ukrainian government shutting down Russian aligned opponents, in terms of Oligarchs and media and the hard force method was not taken seriously previously because all the satellite imagery etc. showed forces, but not the vital secondary facilities being in place, so the bluff didn’t work. This time, he’s put the casevac hospitals and logistics centres and so on in place as well. This is why there’s all the alarm about a genuine invasion threat.

you’re right about keeping the forces at the level they are at for much longer. That’s something I’ve also previously posted, and why I said that the “best” moment has already passed, perhaps.

Macron may be preening, but he’s far more effective than the likes of Truss and Johnson and may help with a route out for Putin.

Like I said earlier (I think) the force route is way more of a risk around negative consequences for him than continuing pressure based around the threat of force combined with negotiation. The prize doesn’t seem worth the potential cost of having his stolen riches taken away, Russia weakened by punative sanctions and international isolation even more than that which has arisen from existing offences and Covid. 

I had that view up until yesterday but the US intelligence coming out seems very specific, that an invasion plan has been put in place for the 16th and the orders communicated to the Russian army. This could all be part of the ruse, of course, but once we get to actual invasion plans being sent to military forces I think we might have gone beyond that.

Or, rather, I feel like it's an ultimatum that war is going to happen unless the west and Ukraine gives into Russia's demands - which I don't think they will. Personally I think if a diplomatic solution was going to happen, it would already have happened.

You're right though that he seems to have approached it in a very strange way. I would have thought not spending the past three weeks obviously threatening to invade Ukraine might have strengthened his hand in the sense that Ukraine would have had less time to prepare, and the West would have had less time to forge a united front against Russia.

[LondonLax]

It takes time to set up an invasion force. Russian warships have been sailing around from St Petersburg and Kaliningrad in the Baltic Sea, around Spain, into the Med, past Italy and Greece and have only in the last couple of days arrived in the Black Sea ready to join the attack, all the while being watched by NATO drones. 

You can’t just sneak up on a country to invade it but it seems like all the forces are now ready to go. 

[HanoiVillan]

Ukraine could drop NATO bid to avoid war, ambassador tells BBC

'Feb 14 (Reuters) - Ukraine could drop its bid to join NATO to avoid war with Russia, the BBC quoted the country's ambassador to Britain as saying, in what would amount to a major concession to Moscow in response to the build-up of Russian troops on its borders.

Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko told the BBC Ukraine was willing to be "flexible" over its goal to join the Atlantic military alliance, a move Russian President Vladimir Putin has said would be a trigger for war.

"We might - especially being threatened like that, blackmailed by that, and pushed to it," Prystaiko was quoted as saying when asked if Kyiv could change its position on NATO membership.'

more on link: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-could-drop-nato-bid-avoid-war-ambassador-tells-bbc-2022-02-14/

[Genie]

1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

Ukraine could drop NATO bid to avoid war, ambassador tells BBC

'Feb 14 (Reuters) - Ukraine could drop its bid to join NATO to avoid war with Russia, the BBC quoted the country's ambassador to Britain as saying, in what would amount to a major concession to Moscow in response to the build-up of Russian troops on its borders.

Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko told the BBC Ukraine was willing to be "flexible" over its goal to join the Atlantic military alliance, a move Russian President Vladimir Putin has said would be a trigger for war.

"We might - especially being threatened like that, blackmailed by that, and pushed to it," Prystaiko was quoted as saying when asked if Kyiv could change its position on NATO membership.'

more on link: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-could-drop-nato-bid-avoid-war-ambassador-tells-bbc-2022-02-14/

Just heard this on the news.

It avoid war, but let’s the bully win. No win situation. 

[HanoiVillan]

9 minutes ago, Genie said:

Just heard this on the news.

It avoid war, but let’s the bully win. No win situation. 

That's certainly one way of looking at it, but I think long term it is the solution with the best chance of creating a 'win'. There are several reasons for this; firstly, Ukraine's NATO application is going nowhere and there is a real question about whether it would be responsible for any government to enter a military engagement with a more poweful neighbour for the sake of an application to join an international club which isn't going to accept it anyway.

Secondly, longer term, this contains the greater prospect for Ukrainian prosperity (and through that prosperity, strength). It cannot be stressed enough what a failure Ukraine's economy is, even compared to its neighbours:

It is poorer today, on a per capita basis, than it was when the USSR broke up. A country that cannot deliver better lives for its citizes will struggle to remain stable or enjoy legitimacy throughout the population. Ukraine has advantages, in terms of its geography and its comparatively highly-educated workforce, but it will not achieve consistent growth without political and military stability. Being partially occupied and/or under the imminent threat of invasion is not an environment conducive to inward foreign investment.

Thirdly, accepting it will not achieve its goal in international defence agreements does not mean that it cannot or will not achieve success in international *political* agreements. Its eventual goal of joining the EU, for example, is *more* likely, not less, if the country is at peace with Russia. And we have the examples of Finland and Austria which demonstrate that military neutrality need not hinder either political alignment with western Europe, or prosperity. And even if Ukraine finds itself unable to join the institutions of the EU, it still has a chance of greater prosperity through peace and better relations to the west *and* the east.

It's certainly true that *if* Ukraine does ditch its NATO aspirations, many people will decry this as a capitulation. Some of those people will be Ukrainian, and they have the right to do so, and that is an internal political battle for politicians in Ukraine to fight. Some of the people decrying such an action as capitulation will be British and American, and these opinions should be treated with contempt in my honest opinion. Its certainly very easy to demand that Ukraine fight a destructive war against its neighbour for our edification, with no real help other than dumping arms on them, but it's not our lives we're proposing to put on the line here.

[bannedfromHandV]

Getting really bored of seeing nothing articles being presented as headline news each day, it’s becoming so tedious I think I’d rather they just invaded and got it over with.

’so and so says bombs could fall within minutes’

’so and so says attack is imminent’

blah blah blah.

Tell you what though, it’s been a great distraction for the Tories hasn’t it, almost too conveniently so.

[The Fun Factory]

I have read that the NATO application is fairy academic as they wouldn't be accepted at present due to the Russian occupation in the Crimea and  the insurgency in east Ukraine.  They would't get in during Putin's time regardless if he invades or not.

Moving forward I wonder how much actual desire is for the west to get rid of Putin. Clearly he is a pain in the arse, but when he does leave would that lead to mass instability with a country with a massive load of stockpiled nuclear weapons. I doubt Russia will suddenly embrace democracy, its not going to happen.

Edited February 14, 2022 by The Fun Factory

[StefanAVFC]