Panto_Villan Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, LondonLax said: My post was fairly tongue in cheek (hence the smiley) and I don’t disagree with either your post or @Panto_Villan’s but I would also say China probably claims they give as good as they get from other major powers as far as espionage is concerned. Also they seem to focus their ‘bullying’ on areas that they consider ‘theirs’. Obviously we would disagree with their stance on Hong Kong, Taiwan or the South China Sea but it’s not on the same league for me as attacking the Middle East or meddling in South America etc etc Apologies for not realising it was tongue in cheek then. If they were to actually invade Taiwan, would you not consider that worse than anything the US has done recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hamburglar Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that China have already committed to biological warfare with the corona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Quite a lot of tension now. Especially with Ukraine where it looks like it might kick off but even Sweden has deployed active troops in the Baltic sea and NATO has sent destroyers. There has been 3 incidents with military grade drones (not Swedish) flying over Nuclear plants in Sweden during the last few weeks Russia sent a bunch of boarding ships to the Baltic sea last week just to provoke. They are obviously not going to invade Sweden but they are certainly starting to act like they did during the Soviet days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 hour ago, sne said: Quite a lot of tension now. Especially with Ukraine where it looks like it might kick off but even Sweden has deployed active troops in the Baltic sea and NATO has sent destroyers. There has been 3 incidents with military grade drones (not Swedish) flying over Nuclear plants in Sweden during the last few weeks Russia sent a bunch of boarding ships to the Baltic sea last week just to provoke. They are obviously not going to invade Sweden but they are certainly starting to act like they did during the Soviet days. Putin is way too scared of Scandinavia’s high tech planes tho. The JAS in Sweden is one hell of an aircraft. They may lack numbers but Russia will seriously hurt if they decide to attack any of the scandi countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 17, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 17, 2022 What is up with Putin? Got Alzheimer's or something. He's managed to stay in power for 23 years without all this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted January 17, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 17, 2022 On 07/01/2022 at 17:37, Panto_Villan said: Probably one for the maps thread, but there's a whole lot of "Say, WHAT?" in that map. I thought my geography knowledge was OK-ish, but... Scarborough Shoal? Paracels? Spratlys, ffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 21 minutes ago, sidcow said: What is up with Putin? Got Alzheimer's or something. He's managed to stay in power for 23 years without all this nonsense. Putin strong leader. Navalny is liar. It's maybe that simple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted January 18, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 18, 2022 It did cross my mind that this is all just a distraction and Nato and Putin are all putting on a show. Biden needs an enemy because he just can't get a win at home - Putin is not as popular as some would have us believe - Boris & Macron both need distractions from all the division in their homelands. Is it possible everyone is just playing make-believe for their own domestic benefit? The "demands" that Russia came up with were beyond comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 18/01/2022 at 03:43, TheAuthority said: It did cross my mind that this is all just a distraction and Nato and Putin are all putting on a show. Biden needs an enemy because he just can't get a win at home - Putin is not as popular as some would have us believe - Boris & Macron both need distractions from all the division in their homelands. Is it possible everyone is just playing make-believe for their own domestic benefit? The "demands" that Russia came up with were beyond comical. Don't sound like it today. Could get serious this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 (edited) So in-between a poorly septuagenarian passing away and a possible garden party we could actually have World War 3. Edited January 21, 2022 by The Fun Factory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 21, 2022 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2022 It's worth looking at what's at stake for the USA and for Russia. For the USA - they don't want a war. That's it. For Russia, or more specifically Putin there's a huge thing at stake. Firstly his absolutely monstrously enormous, stolen wealth is threatened by the possibility of losing his grip on power - so he has to stay in power. His power is threatened by any hint of opposition growing, either through domestic opponents, or through neighbouring nations becoming "free and safe" from Russian influence/threat/control via joining NATO. They would then be examples for the people and opponents at home "if they can have democracy and peace guaranteed, why can't we?" kind of thing. There's also fear and ideology - ideology that Russia should be a world power, feared and respected and an imperial force, together with fear that Russia is becoming a minnow. So Russia has a lot more at stake and to that end, they have gathered an Army on the borders, launched cyber attacks, have forced up gas prices to weaken the west and all the myriad other steps they've taken. On the downside, those troops have been stationed there, in winter in the cold for a couple of months already - it can't be sustained. So Russia either needs a negotiated win, or to crack on with doing war. If they do war, they will suffer huge sanctions and economic harm - I guess it's a gamble that the west will bottle out of extreme economic action, and there are signs that is the case - Germany is clearly not in the same line of thinking as most of the rest of the west, for example. Looks more than evens that Russia will start something, I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 21, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 21, 2022 Russia can leverage its grip on gas supplies if it feels it cannot get it's way, and the West has no interest in a war so close to home. Ukraine as it exists now is on borrowed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 21, 2022 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, Chindie said: Russia can leverage its grip on gas supplies if it feels it cannot get it's way, and the West has no interest in a war so close to home. It can. The thing I wonder though, is if they do (and they already are, tbh) is will it cause Europe to accelerate a move away from Gas, and thus leave Russia in a (longer term) much weaker position. The other thing is a very large chunk of Putin's stolen wealth is via, like the tories have done here for PPE, setting up (some years ago) a shell company, which then got awarded contracts to handle the export and sale of oil and gas, and then the shell company syphons off chunks of the income and sends it to Swiss bank accounts controlled by Putin and his acolytes. I mean he's bonkers rich already, so maybe he doesn't care, but there's a risk around that, surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted January 21, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 hours ago, foreveryoung said: Don't sound like it today. Could get serious this. Just got in and read the news. Still think theres a lot of posturing going on from Putin. ( @blandy has described the situation very accurately.) He's not stupid - getting into a war with Nato isn't going to benefit him in the long run. He needs to negotiate a de-escalation and be seen to have been successful. If Putin had done this when Trump was in charge, then the rabid right in the US would have supported any kind of response from the crazy tangerine nut - and I think even Putin wouldn't have been able to predict what he would have done. But the polarization over here right now means that if Biden even suggested military action on foreign soil he will get absolutely hammered by the right and those on the left. Putin understands this oh so well, and is probably happy to go right to the edge to Russia the best deal. This issue as always is if someone blinks on the front line and a mistake happens that one side can't be seen to step down from. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 28 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: If Putin had done this when Trump was in charge, then the rabid right in the US would have supported any kind of response from the crazy tangerine nut - and I think even Putin wouldn't have been able to predict what he would have done. Trump's self interest checks Mutually Assured Destruction. He did express an interest in nuking the weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted January 21, 2022 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 07/01/2022 at 19:56, Panto_Villan said: If they were to actually invade Taiwan, would you not consider that worse than anything the US has done recently? Technically, can China invade Taiwan? It's be like the US invading Texas (or more like the US invading Puerto Rico I guess). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2022 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Technically, can China invade Taiwan? It's be like the US invading Texas (or more like the US invading Puerto Rico I guess). No it wouldn't Puero Rico is an American protectorate. Taiwan is recognised as an Independant country by the UN and most certainly isn't protected by China Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Technically, can China invade Taiwan? It's be like the US invading Texas (or more like the US invading Puerto Rico I guess). It’s not the same as those - Texas is a state and Puerto Rico is a colony / dependency. Taiwan is governed by the remnants of the previous Chinese government that the Communists fought in the Chinese civil war, but were never able to fully defeat. A better analogy is North / South Korea, which are two different countries that both arose from a single country as a result of an inconclusive war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted January 21, 2022 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2022 The Ukraine is a bad situation - an aggressive NATO policy supported by the traditional CIA, insert fascist puppet government and take over coup attempt (The Revolution of Digninty!) has backfired a little as Putin seems to have decided to take advantage of that period of uncertainty to assert his own claim on the place. It's a peculiar place to start with, with a lot of the country identifying as Russian and a lot of the country identifying as anything but Russian - it's a volatile pot that's been stirred in more than one direction. In what I guess would be the most similar historical precedent, Russia backed away from Cuba, whether the US can be seen to be backing away from Putin might be a more difficult proposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Technically, can China invade Taiwan? It's be like the US invading Texas (or more like the US invading Puerto Rico I guess). I don't think either of those analogies works. Puerto Rico is closer in status, but the history there is very different (a legacy of colonialism rather than separatist conflict), and public opinion on both sides is more receptive to a wide range of solutions. Taiwan is a de facto independent country which is governed completely autonomously from People's Republic of China, and it is just a diplomatic pantomime in response to PRC bullying that maintains the delusion that Taiwan is a region of Xi Jinping's China. PRC can definitely "invade" Taiwan, in the same way England could invade Scotland if Boris sent the army in after an independence vote. Maybe the UN wouldn't call it an invasion, but we'd all know it as an invasion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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