Awol Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Genie said: Russia pulling some troops back from the border according to their defence minister. Yeeeeeeeeaaah course. Putin deployed more than half of his regular army 1000's of miles across Russia, provoked Ukraine into an even more determined position on joining the EU and NATO, but now he's slinking off again having achieved nothing? Colour me a nice shade of maskirovka. Edit: to make the point more clearly, a map of where Putin’s forces have deployed from within Russia: Edited February 15, 2022 by Awol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 15, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted February 15, 2022 Americans invade and annex Siberia is what we're saying then, as it's undefended right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 25 minutes ago, Awol said: Yeeeeeeeeaaah course. Putin deployed more than half of his regular army 1000's of miles across Russia, provoked Ukraine into an even more determined position on joining the EU and NATO, but now he's slinking off again having achieved nothing? Colour me a nice shade of maskirovka. Edit: to make the point more clearly, a map of where Putin’s forces have deployed from within Russia: I thought that Ukraine had softened its desire to join NATO which is what Putin wanted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Genie said: I thought that Ukraine had softened its desire to join NATO which is what Putin wanted? No, that was some freelancing by the Ukrainian Ambo in London, immediately disavowed by Kiev. Joining NATO is in the Ukrainian Constitution, whether NATO lets that happen or not in the future is another question, but there's plenty in Europe who would likely veto it - Hungary, Germany and France at minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Russia probably pulled out so they dont have to get anymore visits from Truss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Russia probably pulled out so they dont have to get anymore visits from Truss its a shame Truss's dad didn't pull out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 15, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Russia probably pulled out so they dont have to get anymore visits from Truss Not sure that's true, apparently her stand up routine went down a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 For spotters, this guy is one of the best open source analysts on Russian military. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Putin is doing this for the attention and to be treated as a world leader. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Still building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 (edited) Russia has built a bridge over the river Pripjat, just north of Ukraine in the Chernobyl exclusion zone in Belarus. It's not a place where one trains, so it's a really aggressive move. Still, I can't see Putin risking his reign in Russia by getting bogged down by the 100-200k regular Ukrainian army, and 400k veteran pool in Ukraine. He'll lose thousands of soldiers fighting an offensive war against a Slavic nation which most Russians consider brethren. It'll be a new more deadly Afghanistan with urban fighting against a well dug in, well supplied opponent. Russia can't and won't use long range artillery as it'll be broadcast across Europe when civilians die, he won't use cruise missiles as these are likely to have a % missfire and likely end up in a NATO country. The analysis above that he wants back in with the big boys internationally is probably a good one. Is he willing to risk all gas exports to Europe, most of his assets and to be excluded from the SWIFT system? Probably not. China will probably also do all they can to stop Putin as it'll hurt their economies if the West starts a war. Edited February 18, 2022 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, magnkarl said: Russia has built a bridge over the river Pripjat, just north of Ukraine in the Chernobyl exclusion zone in Belarus. It's not a place where one trains, so it's a really aggressive move. Still, I can't see Putin risking his reign in Russia by getting bogged down by the 100-200k regular Ukrainian army, and 400k veteran pool in Ukraine. He'll lose thousands of soldiers fighting an offensive war against a Slavic nation which most Russians consider brethren. It'll be a new more deadly Afghanistan with urban fighting against a well dug in, well supplied opponent. Russia can't and won't use long range artillery as it'll be broadcast across Europe when civilians die, he won't use cruise missiles as these are likely to have a % missfire and likely end up in a NATO country. The analysis above that he wants back in with the big boys internationally is probably a good one. Is he willing to risk all gas exports to Europe, most of his assets and to be excluded from the SWIFT system? Probably not. China will probably also do all they can to stop Putin as it'll hurt their economies if the West starts a war. They're a permenant member of the security council and one of the few nuclear armed states. Until they started poisoning people and invading their neighbours they were members of the G8 (now G7). Not sure how much more "in with the big boys" he wants to be tbh. What he wants is to maintain a buffer state between Russia and NATO countries. It's purely a strategic military aim, nothing more. On one hand it's inarguable that the Russians are in the wrong by (potentially) invading a sovereign neighbour and destroying that countries right to self determination. On the other hand, is it worse than what the US did in the last century to Cuba or to Vietnam to try and prevent those countries aligning to the USSR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 16 minutes ago, desensitized43 said: They're a permenant member of the security council and one of the few nuclear armed states. Until they started poisoning people and invading their neighbours they were members of the G8 (now G7). Not sure how much more "in with the big boys" he wants to be tbh. What he wants is to maintain a buffer state between Russia and NATO countries. It's purely a strategic military aim, nothing more. On one hand it's inarguable that the Russians are in the wrong by (potentially) invading a sovereign neighbour and destroying that countries right to self determination. On the other hand, is it worse than what the US did in the last century to Cuba or to Vietnam to try and prevent those countries aligning to the USSR? Or what the USSR did to the whole of Eastern Europe? Russia is not at all in the clear here. They’re a dictatorship which is constantly invading, poisoning and ruining its neighbours. Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Afghanistan, Syria… Have people forgotten what Putin did to Georgia? The US and NATO are at least mostly democratic. Their members generally voted on joining. What Russia is doing is quite Hitler-like tbh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 If Russia invaded and then occupied Ukraine wouldn’t it then be next door to the Eastern European NATO members? It’s a strange move to make when you want to maintain distance to NATO members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, magnkarl said: Or what the USSR did to the whole of Eastern Europe? Russia is not at all in the clear here. They’re a dictatorship which is constantly invading, poisoning and ruining its neighbours. Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Afghanistan, Syria… Have people forgotten what Putin did to Georgia? The US and NATO are at least mostly democratic. Their members generally voted on joining. What Russia is doing is quite Hitler-like tbh. Oh I know I'm not one of these ultra left wing Corbyn-y fellows that's hating on the US. It's just mildly amusing that when the US was faced with the prospect of heavy weapons in Cuba all of a sudden it was the end of the world. Hypocrisy. Russia are clearly a dictatorship and a massive kleptocracy. Regarding the Hitler comparison, I can definitely see that's the case but also in a much worse Munich-y sense where all the major powers are basically having talks behind the Ukrainians back and deciding how far they'll allow Russia to go before "Incursion" becomes "Invasion", essentially carving up the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desensitized43 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, Genie said: If Russia invaded and then occupied Ukraine wouldn’t it then be next door to the Eastern European NATO members? It’s a strange move to make when you want to maintain distance to NATO members. They surely won't be planning to annex Ukraine. Just setup a friendly puppet state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, desensitized43 said: They surely won't be planning to annex Ukraine. Just setup a friendly puppet state. It would be easier to just turn their gas off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Make of it what you will amongst the countless chatter and claims but my mate works in a role for one of the major US defence contractors all be it he’s involved in the civil aviation side of it , he just messaged me “Lots of internal meetings about how we turn off our service to Russian airlines this weekend. Someone in the US thinks it's going down this weekend “ He’s always a bit vague about what his role is but I believe he is talking about the GPS systems the airlines use but don’t quote me on that .. Guess it could be as part of a sanctions package , don’t think there is any military implication in this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MessiWillSignForVilla Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Looks like it's starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 I think at this point Russia will only respond to like for like threats. NATO should just threaten to invade Russia and start massing troops along their borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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