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17/18 Promotion Charge


dont_do_it_doug.

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Let’s see if we can beat Leeds and Sheff Utd in the head to heads first of all. Will give us a better idea as to whether we will be up for the fight should we make the play offs. We won’t be finishing top 2 - not good enough. 

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9 hours ago, jackbauer24 said:

My confidence in making the playoffs is growing... but my confidence in us being promoted remains the same, pretty low. Seen little to suggest we can have much confidence against the better teams. Fulham was good but not great but we need to start beating teams around us with more ease, especially at home. Maybe I'm still in shock from the gulf in quality between us and Wolves but we need some big results to start being serious about promotion, not just picking off the easier teams.

I'd be more worried if we had Newcastle or Brighton in it and we were chasing them for the top 2. I still don't trust wolves, they got the jitters when Preston put it up to them. Sheffield Utd are still not been respected and taken seriously,  when teams get serious against them, they'll dip..guarantee it. Cardiff will be there but they will lose games on the way. I just don't  get the feeling when I look at any team in this league and say "yeah they'll run away with it". Villa can definitely go up but we still have to improve ourselves. 

Edited by Johnnyp
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10 hours ago, Johnnyp said:

I'd be more worried if we had Newcastle or Brighton in it and we were chasing them for the top 2. I still don't trust wolves, they got the jitters when Preston put it up to them. Sheffield Utd are still not been respected and taken seriously,  when teams get serious against them, they'll dip..guarantee it. Cardiff will be there but they will lose games on the way. I just don't  get the feeling when I look at any team in this league and say "yeah they'll run away with it". Villa can definitely go up but we still have to improve ourselves. 

Cardiff are playing a high intensity game with a small squad, we all know how that ends up about March time.

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13 hours ago, Tayls said:

Let’s see if we can beat Leeds and Sheff Utd in the head to heads first of all. Will give us a better idea as to whether we will be up for the fight should we make the play offs. We won’t be finishing top 2 - not good enough. 

I actually feel like second is exactly where we will finish. We will just keep creeping up on it 

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Yeah I agree, we have a good shot at the 2nd spot, when you look at who we're competing with, our squad depth and general form to date. It'll take some going to get into 2nd but we are well placed in the race. The real pressure will be if we get there and keeping the place. 

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1 hour ago, omariqy said:

The one thing that might work in our favour is our squad depth as you say @Jareth.  My only worry is at centre back. 

Yup, Samba and Richards doesn't exactly sound appetizing. Stay fit now Chester + Terry!

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17 hours ago, KJT123 said:

The statistics show that Cardiff are the best performing side in the league. There's a reason why they're doing so well.

Of the sides currently in the top 6, I think Cardiff are the weakest.

Warnock has done a fantastic job there - but I'd be amazed if they stayed the distance.

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2 hours ago, omariqy said:

The one thing that might work in our favour is our squad depth as you say @Jareth.  My only worry is at centre back. 

And left back...oh and left wing...oh and up front. And possibly our keeper...

I'm not sure we have the depth people think we have! Well, apart from the right wing of course.

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15 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

And left back...oh and left wing...oh and up front. And possibly our keeper...

I'm not sure we have the depth people think we have! Well, apart from the right wing of course.

Personally, I'm happy with our backup for left-wing, up front and goalkeeper.

 

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46 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

And left back...oh and left wing...oh and up front. And possibly our keeper...

I'm not sure we have the depth people think we have! Well, apart from the right wing of course.

Left wing we have Adomah, Green and Grealish.  Hutton has been ok at LB tbf. I think Steer has shown that he is more than adequate as backup. With the emergence of Davis we are well covered up top. Although I wouldn't be surprised if Bruce goes for a striker in Jan.

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Regarding promotion, this is where I am.

Firstly, Top 2 - It‘s not a question of not being good enough for top 2, it‘s more a doubt that our already dropped points and the points we will drop from now on in will mean that we wont get enough points for top 2.

We have the players as a 1st XI, and enough in the squad (without too many injuries) to make top2 but the manager is not getting enough out of them to achieve it. IMHO

Secondly, The playoffs 3rd-6th. As always there is some pts leeway from worse than 2nd to better than 7th ( @markavfc40 :ph34r: ) so there is absolutely no reason for not being Top 6  - but in the words of Mr Bruce - „there or there abouts“ could also mean 10th.

My problem with finishing 3rd-6th is that, for the playoffs, the seasons performances, form and whatever all goes out the window and the teams who get there start from scratch. It‘s on the days (2legs) and the day (final).

As of now it looks like Wolves, Cardiff, SheffU, Leeds and us  (plus a few more) are in positions to make a go of top2. (doing that is a different thing). So what happens if we miss out on top2? Ok, we get a 2nd chance - win the playoffs.

What would be the outcome if any 1, 2 or even 3 of those teams DIDNT make top 2 (for whatever reasons)?

I wouldnt have any confindence in beating (over 2 legs or a final) Wolves or Cardiff. SheffU would have had by then 2 whole seasons of winning a lot of games, Leeds, Derby, Preston, Fulham & BristolC would all mean business, and Aston Villa would be the club who has the most to lose (as mentioned in many other threads - we simply have to go up this year).

Bottling/losing out on our last chance could be as easy as a refs decision, a red card for any of Hutton, Taylor, Whelan, Lansbury or Kodjia.

How devastating would it be to lose at the final hurdle?

IMHO - we cannot afford to leave it to chance, we must finish in the top 2. The risk of failing to win the playoffs is far too great.

Disclaimer - I am fully aware that we could scrape into 6th then hit form/be lucky/be good and walk the playoffs. But as a simple fact of chance ratio. It‘s 50/50 to get through to the final and again 50/50 to win the final.

I‘m not sure my ticker/nerves would take it too kindly.

 

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3 hours ago, omariqy said:

The one thing that might work in our favour is our squad depth as you say @Jareth.  My only worry is at centre back. 

You see, I think squad depth is our problem. Not in terms of numbers but in terms of quality. Richards, Samba, Bjarnasson, to name but a few, arent remotely good enough to help us get promoted.

Our first 11 is doing pretty well but aside from that I dont rate our squad as some people do. 

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Just now, One For The Road said:

You see, I think squad depth is our problem. Not in terms of numbers but in terms of quality. Richards, Samba, Bjarnasson, to name but a few, arent remotely good enough to help us get promoted.

Our first 11 is doing pretty well but aside from that I dont rate our squad as some people do. 

Well we have De Laet, Bree, Jedinak, Lansbury, O'Hare, Grealish, Green, Hogan and Davis waiting in the wings. Not a bad subs bench.

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Just now, omariqy said:

Well we have De Laet, Bree, Jedinak, Lansbury, O'Hare, Grealish, Green, Hogan and Davis waiting in the wings. Not a bad subs bench.

How many of the players were good enough to get us promoted last season? As I say, I think some people are bigging up our squad to he something that evidence proves it isnt.

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3 minutes ago, One For The Road said:

How many of the players were good enough to get us promoted last season? As I say, I think some people are bigging up our squad to he something that evidence proves it isnt.

No I get that but we have to compare it against others in the league. No other team really has our depth in this league. 

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