BigJim Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, One For The Road said: So you can eliminate the lottery element by doing some research on t opponent? Does't that prove that far from being a lottery it's actually about skill and hard work? Penalties are not a lottery. If you put the ball in certain spots at certain speed then no keeper can save it. The play offs are not a lottery because you have to play a fair game of football against your opponent. Is the FA Cup a lottery? Or the World Cup? To bring this back on topic, over the course of a season or long cup competition, the better teams obviously finish in the top positions. "Luck" is eliminated as it evens out over time. In a one-off game however, anything can happen and a lowly team can "get lucky" against the favourite, with a deflection, or whatever it may be. We've all seen it happen, whether you call it a lottery is irrelevant. With penalties, no-one can put the ball beyond the reach of a goalkeeper every time, however much they practice. As for Villa in the playoffs, the common opinion seems to be we are unlikely to play the better football in 3 consecutive matches against other high placed teams, so we would need that element of good fortune to win through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 3 hours ago, One For The Road said: Sorry to pick on your comment but I hate it when people say that. It's so ridiculously untrue. The 'lottery' element is that there are only 3 playoffs games so you don't know who'll be injured, on form, ref decisions, etc. To get promoted automatically you need to perform over 46 games so all of that isn't as important. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One For The Road Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) 18 minutes ago, villa89 said: The 'lottery' element is that there are only 3 playoffs games so you don't know who'll be injured, on form, ref decisions, etc. To get promoted automatically you need to perform over 46 games so all of that isn't as important. So is the FA Cup/World Cup a lottery once it gets to the semi finals then? Have you ever heard or thought, "They have won this FA Cup quarter final and are now through to the lottery of the semi finals"? Edited October 30, 2017 by One For The Road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One For The Road Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, BigJim said: As for Villa in the playoffs, the common opinion seems to be we are unlikely to play the better football in 3 consecutive matches against other high placed teams, so we would need that element of good fortune to win through. I still don't see how that makes it a lottery. Good/bad fortune is part of football in general. Was Sunday's game a lottery? Is every game you play a lottery? If not, why not? If you are claiming that the Play offs IS then surely every game is. Personally I don't think any game is down to purely to luck as skill, tactics and preperation are the things that more often that not determine the winners of a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Playoffs? Have we not seen how we perform against the top 6? If we were in the playoffs, there's no chance we'd get promoted...lottery or not. As long as Bruce approaches these games like we're playing 70's Brazil, we're never going to get promoted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 On 29/10/2017 at 19:52, villa89 said: You could get promoted by winning one of those 3 games, drawing one and losing one. EDIT: Now that I think about it you could also draw all three and still get promoted. My heart wouldn't take that! It would be bad enough watching Villa play 3 play off matches but to throw 2 penalty shootouts into the mix is just f***ing cruel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 11 hours ago, One For The Road said: I still don't see how that makes it a lottery. Good/bad fortune is part of football in general. Was Sunday's game a lottery? Is every game you play a lottery? If not, why not? If you are claiming that the Play offs IS then surely every game is. Personally I don't think any game is down to purely to luck as skill, tactics and preperation are the things that more often that not determine the winners of a game. That's the lottery part right there - will Bruce let the players off the leash or just play 6-3-1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrentVilla Posted October 31, 2017 Moderator Share Posted October 31, 2017 Despite our good run we are quite likely to be out of the play off positions by this time tomorrow. It’s likely we will need to win at Preston to get back in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 24 minutes ago, TrentVilla said: Despite our good run we are quite likely to be out of the play off positions by this time tomorrow. I think it could be the same all season, where we are in and around the playoff positions but never far ahead or far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 hour ago, TrentVilla said: Despite our good run we are quite likely to be out of the play off positions by this time tomorrow. It’s likely we will need to win at Preston to get back in them. Agree. I think we will be between 4th and 8th all season. This is the beginning of a massive month for us as December looks very tricky. Preston (a) Sheff W (h) QPR (a) Sunderland (h) Ipswich (h) They are all winnable games and if we can get something like 11/12 points from them then we would have done well and be up there come December. If we fall away this month then playoffs are our best hope I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grasshopper Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 (edited) 21 minutes ago, omariqy said: Agree. I think we will be between 4th and 8th all season. This is the beginning of a massive month for us as December looks very tricky. Preston (a) Sheff W (h) QPR (a) Sunderland (h) Ipswich (h) They are all winnable games and if we can get something like 11/12 points from them then we would have done well and be up there come December. If we fall away this month then playoffs are our best hope I feel. 3 home wins and 2 away draws are an absolute minimum (11pts) But if we are really honest with ourselves. PNE with their Weekend defence and QPR as away games we should be looking at 5 wins. Allowing 1 draw out of that lot (not expecting perfection) then I‘d take 13pts. Lose tomorrow and we‘ll need someone else for this seasons promotion charge. Edited October 31, 2017 by Grasshopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 5 wins should be achievable and will put us bang on track for 2 pts / game. I'll accept 13 though. Momentum back going into December which will be another tough month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 (edited) 2 hours ago, omariqy said: Agree. I think we will be between 4th and 8th all season. This is the beginning of a massive month for us as December looks very tricky. Preston (a) Sheff W (h) QPR (a) Sunderland (h) Ipswich (h) They are all winnable games and if we can get something like 11/12 points from them then we would have done well and be up there come December. If we fall away this month then playoffs are our best hope I feel. I am going ipswich hope to god we win that one Edited October 31, 2017 by Demitri_C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dn1982 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Preston is our toughest game out of the next 5 by a long way but they've hit a bad run so we should go there and be confident. It's these games that'll shape our season. After the awful start we need to win the next 5 really. That should see a gap emerge going into a tough December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 The only game that might be tricky is QPR. The others we should win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 20 minutes ago, dn1982 said: Preston is our toughest game out of the next 5 by a long way but they've hit a bad run so we should go there and be confident. It's these games that'll shape our season. After the awful start we need to win the next 5 really. That should see a gap emerge going into a tough December. That's the thing though, we won't go there and play positively. If I were a betting man I'd bet good money on us playing ultra defensive hoofball and ultimately getting battered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dn1982 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, Keyblade said: That's the thing though, we won't go there and play positively. If I were a betting man I'd bet good money on us playing ultra defensive hoofball and ultimately getting battered. I've just read what Dean Smith said about beating them and their high press. Going long then winning 2nd ball so hoofball may work!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Just now, dn1982 said: I've just read what Dean Smith said about beating them and their high press. Going long then winning 2nd ball so hoofball may work!! That sounds like hoofball with a purpose, something we may succeed with with Davis up front. The problem is against Cardiff, Reading, Bristol and Wolves we played completely aimless hoofball. Literally just sat back all game and cleared the ball. Even with Davis' positive influence that's likely to get us trounced once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dn1982 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Keyblade said: That sounds like hoofball with a purpose, something we may succeed with with Davis up front. The problem is against Cardiff, Reading, Bristol and Wolves we played completely aimless hoofball. Literally just sat back all game and cleared the ball. Even with Davis' positive influence that's likely to get us trounced once again. We haven't got any tempo in us and that's the biggest issue. Against Fulham if we put a bit more into the fans we'd have been out of sight and the same against Blues we started well then lost all urgency. I can see us going 442 with Hogan and Davis then Whelan and Jedi sitting protecting. The stuff dreams are made of that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 We need to be winning this, we really do. Its not good enough going to your rivals for a draw we have to pick up wins if you want to get into the top 2. Preston are definitely beatable, but i expect it will be a davis and onomah direct swap and another negative performance away from home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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