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17/18 Promotion Charge


dont_do_it_doug.

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2 hours ago, bobzy said:

Of the sides currently in the top 6, I think Cardiff are the weakest.

Warnock has done a fantastic job there - but I'd be amazed if they stayed the distance.

On paper, I'd definitely agree. But from a statistical standpoint, they're not in a false position. It's quite amazing really how they are performing - Warnock is one of the most underrated managers around IMO.

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18 hours ago, KJT123 said:

On paper, I'd definitely agree. But from a statistical standpoint, they're not in a false position. It's quite amazing really how they are performing - Warnock is one of the most underrated managers around IMO.

Maybe. They’ve won 3 of their last 8 games - an impressive start has kept them up there for now. As I say, I think they’ll drop away, but they wouldn’t have expected a title challenge anyway.

Agreed on Warnock, always does well with the underdogs. 

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59 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Maybe. They’ve won 3 of their last 8 games - an impressive start has kept them up there for now. As I say, I think they’ll drop away, but they wouldn’t have expected a title challenge anyway.

Agreed on Warnock, always does well with the underdogs. 

I didnt realise they have had such (relative) poor recent form.  No way they are staying up here if that is any indication.

Shows just how good a start they had though!

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59 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Maybe. They’ve won 3 of their last 8 games - an impressive start has kept them up there for now. As I say, I think they’ll drop away, but they wouldn’t have expected a title challenge anyway.

Agreed on Warnock, always does well with the underdogs. 

I didnt realise they have had such (relative) poor recent form.  No way they are staying up here if that is any indication.

Shows just how good a start they had though!

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On 10/24/2017 at 13:41, Grasshopper said:

Regarding promotion, this is where I am.

Firstly, Top 2 - It‘s not a question of not being good enough for top 2, it‘s more a doubt that our already dropped points and the points we will drop from now on in will mean that we wont get enough points for top 2.

We have the players as a 1st XI, and enough in the squad (without too many injuries) to make top2 but the manager is not getting enough out of them to achieve it. IMHO

Secondly, The playoffs 3rd-6th. As always there is some pts leeway from worse than 2nd to better than 7th ( @markavfc40 :ph34r: ) so there is absolutely no reason for not being Top 6  - but in the words of Mr Bruce - „there or there abouts“ could also mean 10th.

My problem with finishing 3rd-6th is that, for the playoffs, the seasons performances, form and whatever all goes out the window and the teams who get there start from scratch. It‘s on the days (2legs) and the day (final).

As of now it looks like Wolves, Cardiff, SheffU, Leeds and us  (plus a few more) are in positions to make a go of top2. (doing that is a different thing). So what happens if we miss out on top2? Ok, we get a 2nd chance - win the playoffs.

What would be the outcome if any 1, 2 or even 3 of those teams DIDNT make top 2 (for whatever reasons)?

I wouldnt have any confindence in beating (over 2 legs or a final) Wolves or Cardiff. SheffU would have had by then 2 whole seasons of winning a lot of games, Leeds, Derby, Preston, Fulham & BristolC would all mean business, and Aston Villa would be the club who has the most to lose (as mentioned in many other threads - we simply have to go up this year).

Bottling/losing out on our last chance could be as easy as a refs decision, a red card for any of Hutton, Taylor, Whelan, Lansbury or Kodjia.

How devastating would it be to lose at the final hurdle?

IMHO - we cannot afford to leave it to chance, we must finish in the top 2. The risk of failing to win the playoffs is far too great.

Disclaimer - I am fully aware that we could scrape into 6th then hit form/be lucky/be good and walk the playoffs. But as a simple fact of chance ratio. It‘s 50/50 to get through to the final and again 50/50 to win the final.

I‘m not sure my ticker/nerves would take it too kindly.

 

Just keep away from the lottery and betting shops.....your nerves will be your downfall.:)

 

Edited by TRO
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30 minutes ago, Johnnyp said:

Very impressed with sheffield utd tonight. They won't go away easily. 

Would have preferred a draw, but win tomorrow and we leapfrog Leeds.

On another note, Sheffield Utd have a fraction of our budget....

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6 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Would have preferred a draw, but win tomorrow and we leapfrog Leeds.

On another note, Sheffield Utd have a fraction of our budget....

They have hardly spent anything and they look like they could go all the way this season. We really have a tough job trying to get a top 6 finish this season as there are some very good sides around us.

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United wont have the squad depth if they pick up injuries.  They get the ball forward and pass it along nicely. But i do think they are very beatable 

I would say they will finish top 6 for sure. Top 2 not sure. I think leeds will be up there along with preston, derby and i still think boro will make a late charge.  Also cant rule out norwich who have quietly snuck in

Cardiff i think will eventually drop off. Already seeing a wobble from them

We have been quite fortunate all the teams relegated have been prerty shit so so far

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12 hours ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Would have preferred a draw, but win tomorrow and we leapfrog Leeds.

On another note, Sheffield Utd have a fraction of our budget....

And have been out of the premier league for ten years, having had only a couple of brief spells in the top flight since the 1970s.

Is that what you would prefer for Villa JV? A small budget and decades of lower level football?

I sometimes wonder what point people are trying to make when they compare other clubs’ smaller budgets to ours. 

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1 hour ago, briny_ear said:

And have been out of the premier league for ten years, having had only a couple of brief spells in the top flight since the 1970s.

Is that what you would prefer for Villa JV? A small budget and decades of lower level football?

I sometimes wonder what point people are trying to make when they compare other clubs’ smaller budgets to ours. 

If you go to the 'Villa & FFP' thread, you can see a different collection of posters arguing that we'll never leave the division if we don't go up this season as well. 

Almost as if none of us can predict the future. 

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2 hours ago, briny_ear said:

And have been out of the premier league for ten years, having had only a couple of brief spells in the top flight since the 1970s.

Is that what you would prefer for Villa JV? A small budget and decades of lower level football?

I sometimes wonder what point people are trying to make when they compare other clubs’ smaller budgets to ours. 

If you can't see the point, then there is no point in me trying to explain it to you. lol

Hint: It is none of what you have said above.

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5 hours ago, briny_ear said:

And have been out of the premier league for ten years, having had only a couple of brief spells in the top flight since the 1970s.

Is that what you would prefer for Villa JV? A small budget and decades of lower level football?

I sometimes wonder what point people are trying to make when they compare other clubs’ smaller budgets to ours. 

Why the anger? He is pointing out we have spent 70m and they have apent a fraction to do better. It’s true.

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6 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

That’s a much much more favourable set of results than you could expect this weekend.

Brilliant results, with the exception of Bristol City

Its now up to us to capitalise and help ourselves.

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