Generic Virus Thread

[sne]

So turns out Trumps beloved Klorokin wasn't the Covid-19 killer he claimed it to be.

Quote

More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study

A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.

The study was posted on an online site for researchers and has been submitted to the New England Journal of Medicine, but has not been reviewed by other scientists. Grants from the National Institutes of Health and the University of Virginia paid for the work.

Researchers analyzed medical records of 368 male veterans hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were discharged by April 11.

About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too, but the difference between that group and usual care was not considered large enough to rule out other factors that could have affected survival.

Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in the need for a breathing machine, either.

Researchers did not track side effects, but noted hints that hydroxychloroquine might have damaged other organs. The drug has long been known to have potentially serious side effects, including altering the heartbeat in a way that could lead to sudden death.

https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/article/More-deaths-no-benefit-from-malaria-drug-in-VA-15215594.php

[DCJonah]

12 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said:

but people do die every day, 150,000+ every single day, 6,000 every hour. 2/3 of these are of age related causes.

This has been going on for 3 months now and only now has the worldwide death total even eclipsed the number of people that die every single day. Still over 50% of the covid deaths are over 85 years old & like it or not an awful lot of these 90,000 or so over 85's would have died anyway, that's what happens when you get to be over 85, a lot of people die. in this country 20%+ of every single death take place in care homes, Why? because care homes are full of old people....

the first official corona death was on Jan 11th, 101 days have now passed since then. At a relatively conservative average estimate (not even taking into account the usual higher death tolls in jab/feb) around 15 million people have died in this time. There have officially been just under 172,000 deaths attributed to corona in this time. That accounts for 1.14% of the total deaths. if it were possible to remove the severley ill/extremely elderly that have died with it this figure would easily be under 1%

2000 people die every single week in lombardy italy, always have, always will. 12000 have died there with corona in 2 months...

People are terrified of death, someone on here, may even have been you even said the other day the objective of life is to live as long as possible.

Is it really? Are people that terrified of dying that they simply want to exist for as long as humanly/mechanically possible even with pretty much no standard of life?

Having had elderly relatives die this year already that were in homes/hospices & in a pretty bad way i'm not sure that any of them saw waking up every day with the aid of a machine a huge massive achievement 90 years into their life

So like I said. Why has pretty much the whole world locked down, if this is just normal every day stuff.  

[Xela]

12 minutes ago, blandy said:

[UBI] I'm not. It's a lovely notion, it really is, but it's about as practical as a Donald Trump suggestion. In an emergency such as this, it's less daft and has much more to recommend it, but only as a short term measure, until the emergency is lifted/over. There are so many flaws with it, it would take multiple pages to post them all.

That being said, 

[StefanAVFC]

timeline of the above EU, shameless partisan EU scheme nonsense

How can anyone trust a word they say?

[LakotaDakota]

18 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Do you understand exponential growth?

Is it something like this?

[Davkaus]

Good read for anyone buying in to the nonsense about British workers being too lazy and feckless to work in the fields. Too many farmers are Representatives for Wellingborough that essentially want serfs. Illegal wages and exploitation of workers is rife, and we subsidise this through taxes, it's pretty grim. Food security is important, but there needs to be far more investigation and prosecution of farmers pulling this shit.

They want foreign workers because they're less likely to know their rights, and more likely to accept being paid less than minimum wage.

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2020/apr/20/just-not-true-were-too-lazy-for-farm-work-say-frustrated-uk-applicants

Quote

British applicants for jobs harvesting crops have said farmers have made it virtually impossible for them to secure the work despite a national appeal for a “land army” to save the UK’s fruit and vegetables.

Dozens of workers have expressed anger at claims they are too lazy or picky to take the jobs, alleging that farmers are favouring cheap migrant labour.

Offers of on-site accommodation in which three or four workers share a caravan were among the most frequent complaints on social media and in emails to the Guardian, after reports that thousands of British workers had turned down jobs and Romanians were being flown in to pick salad.

Chay Honey, in Bristol, whose work on festivals has disappeared, said the pay and conditions of the farm work were difficult to justify. “I live with my fiance and to live on site would mean I would only have one day a week for friends and family. They also said you can’t use your own vehicle, which makes getting out to the shops difficult. Very quickly the romance of going to work for a farm to help provide food for the nation has become very unattractive,” he said.

 

[chrisp65]

25 minutes ago, blandy said:

[UBI] I'm not. It's a lovely notion, it really is, but it's about as practical as a Donald Trump suggestion. In an emergency such as this, it's less daft and has much more to recommend it, but only as a short term measure, until the emergency is lifted/over. There are so many flaws with it, it would take multiple pages to post them all.

Just give us your top 12.

[ml1dch]

12 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

How can anyone trust a word they say?

I don't think that anybody with more brain cells than fingers does, do they?

[HanoiVillan]

24 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said:

This has been going on for 3 months now and only now has the worldwide death total even eclipsed the number of people that die every single day.

. . . but this is a function of exponential growth.

29 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said:

Still over 50% of the covid deaths are over 85 years old

In the UK, as of 10th April, that isn't correct, per the ONS:

'The majority of deaths involving COVID-19 have been among people aged 65 years and over (8,998 out of 10,350), with 39% (3,485) of these occurring in the over-85 age group.'

(from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26)

33 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said:

& like it or not an awful lot of these 90,000 or so over 85's would have died anyway, that's what happens when you get to be over 85, a lot of people die.

As we have discussed before, everybody 'would have died anyway'. Men aged 85 live for more than 5 more years on average, while for women that is 6 (see, for instance: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/life-expectancy-at-scotland-level/nat-life-16-18/nat-life-tabs-16-18-pub.pdf)

37 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said:

People are terrified of death, someone on here, may even have been you even said the other day the objective of life is to live as long as possible.

Is it really? Are people that terrified of dying that they simply want to exist for as long as humanly/mechanically possible even with pretty much no standard of life?

Having had elderly relatives die this year already that were in homes/hospices & in a pretty bad way i'm not sure that any of them saw waking up every day with the aid of a machine a huge massive achievement 90 years into their life

This is a fair point, and philosophically I have a lot of sympathy with it. I have had plenty of elderly relatives who just wanted to die already, and clearly quality of life is extremely important. However, 'quality of death' matters too, and while we don't usually get to choose how we die, I doubt many people would choose gasping for breath on a crowded ward where doctors can't give you the care you need, and with your family barred from being at the bedside.

******

A different point I wish you would consider more carefully is that this is as much about the healthcare system, and the workers within that system, as it is about the general population. If lots of doctors get sick or die, or depressed or traumatised, or if we run out of healthcare resources like beds, gowns, oxygen, ventilators and dialysis machines, then mortality from all causes will increase. Covid is a threat not just because *it* is dangerous, but because it makes *everything else* more dangerous as well.

[Lichfield Dean]

Furthering the NHS fake accounts accusations, David Allen Green has now weighed in on the matter:

 

[snowychap]

53 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Do you understand exponential growth?

I genuinely wouldn't bother responding to the posts. It's the same old shit nearly every single day.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by snowychap

[HanoiVillan]

44 minutes ago, blandy said:

[UBI] I'm not. It's a lovely notion, it really is, but it's about as practical as a Donald Trump suggestion. In an emergency such as this, it's less daft and has much more to recommend it, but only as a short term measure, until the emergency is lifted/over. There are so many flaws with it, it would take multiple pages to post them all.

We have done this before, but I strongly disagree with this.

It is not impractical in theory at all, though arguably it is impractical to gain enough political support to implement in reality. But the mechanics of a UBI are not even slightly difficult.

On the first highlighted point above, it's not 'a lovely notion'. I think you think this because in British politics it has typically been proposed by cuddly left-wing parties like the Greens, but there is nothing necessarily left-wing, or even generous, about a UBI. The level could be set at such a level that it would leave people worse off than they would be under the current benefit system, and it could be designed in additionally punitive ways as well (like banning anyone convicted of a crime from ever receiving it, for instance). A UBI is a way of organising a national benefit system, not (necessarily) a generous handout from yoghurt-munching do-gooders (of course, it theoretically could be that, but given what we know of British politics that seems very unlikely).

On the second point, I think you have it exactly backwards. A UBI would not be beneficial now for two main reasons: firstly, it would be difficult, on a practical level, to conduct all of the necessary alterations to the benefit system during a period of lockdown and social distancing. While it could be done, it's very likely that a lot of people would fall through the cracks, and that would not be ideal at a time like this - 'you go to war with the army you have'. Secondly, a UBI set at a level that is not punitive (and therefore even worse than the current arrangements) would drive consumption, at precisely the time when we want to reduce economic activity. If it is to be implemented, it would be better as part of a post-crisis stimulus package.

[limpid]

UBI discussion in a different thread. Thanks.

[LakotaDakota]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

'The majority of deaths involving COVID-19 have been among people aged 65 years and over (8,998 out of 10,350), with 39% (3,485) of these occurring in the over-85 age group.'

(from: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26)

As we have discussed before, everybody 'would have died anyway'. Men aged 85 live for more than 5 more years on average, while for women that is 6 (see, for instance: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/life-expectancy-at-scotland-level/nat-life-16-18/nat-life-tabs-16-18-pub.pdf)

 

Nowhere have i said everyone would have died, an awful lot of over 85s would have though.

I have the 2017 figures handy so will go with those

498,882 deaths in England. 341,620 (68.5%) of these were people 75 & over

59% Of this 341,620 were 85 & over. That's over 200,000 people 85 & over died in a single year in England.

The population of england is/was made up of approximately 1.35 million people over 85 years old. 15 % of them died in 2017

If we are taking the figures you have quoted of 3485  people over 85 dying with covid are correct then you would imagine that perhaps 523 (15%) of those would maybe have died anyway based on the whole years info from 2017? Obviously this is just the over 85's. Again if your figures of nearly 90% of covid deaths are over 65 a proportion of these would also have died anyway.

I'm sure if we find figures from one of the fun flu yeears they would be an awful lot higher than 15%

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/death-in-people-aged-75-years-and-older-in-england-in-2017/death-in-people-aged-75-years-and-older-in-england-in-2017

Approximately half a million people die in England each year, two-thirds of whom are aged 75 years of age and older. Life expectancy has risen over the past 25 years, and as such, the fraction of people aged 75 years and older has risen and is projected to continue to rise.

As a result, the number of deaths in this age group is rising at an accelerated rate. The population of England is ageing, and this has important implications for the provision of end of life care, which the NHS intends to personalise and improve in the coming years

Edited April 21, 2020 by LakotaDakota

[sne]

Well good luck with this.

The US state of Missouri has sued China for their handling the corona outbreak.

State Attorney General Eric Schmitt, in his lawsuit, claims that China has acted negligently, and that Missouri and its residents have lost tens of billions of dollars (equivalent to hundreds of billions of dollars) due to the pandemic. Accordingly, the Land requires financial compensation, according to the civil case.

"The Chinese government lied to the world about the danger and contagion with covid-19, silenced whistle blower, and did little to stop the spread of infection," Schmitt said in a statement.

 

[blandy]

Bugger. Just typed a response to @chrisp65  bloody germs.

[chrisp65]

8 minutes ago, sne said:

Well good luck with this.

The US state of Missouri has sued China for their handling the corona outbreak.

State Attorney General Eric Schmitt, in his lawsuit, claims that China has acted negligently, and that Missouri and its residents have lost tens of billions of dollars (equivalent to hundreds of billions of dollars) due to the pandemic. Accordingly, the Land requires financial compensation, according to the civil case.

"The Chinese government lied to the world about the danger and contagion with covid-19, silenced whistle blower, and did little to stop the spread of infection," Schmitt said in a statement.

 

Native Americans say Hi!

[sne]

6 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Native Americans say Hi!

Think it's How! 

[Stevo985]

2 hours ago, LakotaDakota said:

but people do die every day, 150,000+ every single day, 6,000 every hour. 2/3 of these are of age related causes.

This has been going on for 3 months now and only now has the worldwide death total even eclipsed the number of people that die every single day. Still over 50% of the covid deaths are over 85 years old & like it or not an awful lot of these 90,000 or so over 85's would have died anyway, that's what happens when you get to be over 85, a lot of people die. in this country 20%+ of every single death take place in care homes, Why? because care homes are full of old people....

the first official corona death was on Jan 11th, 101 days have now passed since then. At a relatively conservative average estimate (not even taking into account the usual higher death tolls in jab/feb) around 15 million people have died in this time. There have officially been just under 172,000 deaths attributed to corona in this time. That accounts for 1.14% of the total deaths. if it were possible to remove the severley ill/extremely elderly that have died with it this figure would easily be under 1%

2000 people die every single week in lombardy italy, always have, always will. 12000 have died there with corona in 2 months...

People are terrified of death, someone on here, may even have been you even said the other day the objective of life is to live as long as possible.

Is it really? Are people that terrified of dying that they simply want to exist for as long as humanly/mechanically possible even with pretty much no standard of life?

Having had elderly relatives die this year already that were in homes/hospices & in a pretty bad way i'm not sure that any of them saw waking up every day with the aid of a machine a huge massive achievement 90 years into their life

Again, like I keep saying to people who post this stuff...

172,000 people have died WITH THE PREVENTATIVE MEASURES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE!

Practically the entire world is in lockdown.

Had we not done this the death toll would be astronomical. Do you realise how much more this would have spread and how many more people would have died if this had been left to spread unchecked?

 

And I've said it before, but **** this idea that elderly people or people who might have died in the near future aren't worth saving. it's heartless, dehumanising bullshit and I hate that it's even a conversation.
God forbid if my aunt or uncle or mom dies of Coronavirus, I won't take any comfort in the fact that you think they would probably have died soon anyway so what's the big deal

[LondonLax]

44 minutes ago, LakotaDakota said:

Nowhere have i said everyone would have died, an awful lot of over 85s would have though.

I have the 2017 figures handy so will go with those

498,882 deaths in England. 341,620 (68.5%) of these were people 75 & over

59% Of this 341,620 were 85 & over. That's over 200,000 people 85 & over died in a single year in England.

The population of england is/was made up of approximately 1.35 million people over 85 years old. 15 % of them died in 2017

If we are taking the figures you have quoted of 3485  people over 85 dying with covid are correct then you would imagine that perhaps 523 (15%) of those would maybe have died anyway based on the whole years info from 2017? Obviously this is just the over 85's. Again if your figures of nearly 90% of covid deaths are over 65 a proportion of these would also have died anyway.

I'm sure if we find figures from one of the fun flu yeears they would be an awful lot higher than 15%

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/death-in-people-aged-75-years-and-older-in-england-in-2017/death-in-people-aged-75-years-and-older-in-england-in-2017

Approximately half a million people die in England each year, two-thirds of whom are aged 75 years of age and older. Life expectancy has risen over the past 25 years, and as such, the fraction of people aged 75 years and older has risen and is projected to continue to rise.

As a result, the number of deaths in this age group is rising at an accelerated rate. The population of England is ageing, and this has important implications for the provision of end of life care, which the NHS intends to personalise and improve in the coming years

You can track graphs for ‘excess deaths’ here.

https://www.euromomo.eu

If you scroll down to England that blue spike in the graph showing the last couple of weeks excess deaths are far higher than any of the winter flu seasons shown, and that is with the benefit of a country under lockdown. It may run high for quite a while yet as well, this is only a month or so into a process that in all likelihood has a couple of years to run.