Generic Virus Thread

[sne]

This is the type of hopeful, optimistic guesstimations that the people who are running the show in Sweden are using to predict things:

Quote

99 percent of those infected with the corona virus do not notice it.

This is stated by former state epidemiologist Johan Giesecke in SVT's "Morning Studio", in a comment about the new study which shows that 11 percent of the blood donors tested in Stockholm also tested positive for antibodies against the coronavirus. Something that means they already had the infection.

- 99 percent or more do not know that they have had it. In most cases, those who are infected do not notice that they have had it. Then some people get sick, some get seriously ill and some die. But if you look at everyone who is infected, it is a very small proportion.

Giesecke estimates that 500,000-600,000 Stockholmers may already have covid-19. The fact that he believes in a higher proportion than the new blood donor tests show is among other things that the tests have only 70% certainty when it comes to detecting the virus.

- If you test ten who have had corona, the result will only show that seven have had it. But the important thing is that the tests do not go the other way, they will never show that you have had corona if you have not had it.

A total of 200 blood donors tested in the study, a small sample group, Giesecke points.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/3Jgxj9/senaste-nytt-om-coronaviruset

It's the absolute best case scenario deducted by pulling numbers out of his ass. 

I mean it would be great if he is right, but has anyone seen numbers like this from anywhere else?

[HanoiVillan]

2 minutes ago, sne said:

This is the type of hopeful, optimistic guesstimations that the people who are running the show in Sweden are using to predict things:

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/3Jgxj9/senaste-nytt-om-coronaviruset

It's the absolute best case scenario deducted by pulling numbers out of his ass. 

I mean it would be great if he is right, but has anyone seen numbers like this from anywhere else?

There have been other studies suggesting a high proportion of the population having already been asymptomatic cases, notably the Santa Clara study discussed on here a couple of days ago. However, there has been far more contrary evidence, including the results from Iceland, which has done wide population-level antibody testing and found the proportion already infected was around 5% (from memory, I might be slighly out). American research from the county containing Telluride, Colorado, suggested around 2% had the relevant antibodies. Even research from hostspots like Vo in Italy or Gangelt in Germany only suggested antibodies present in 10-15% of the population. Now, it's perfectly possible that those studies are wrong, or that there has been more community transmission in Sweden, and that Giesecke is right. But I'd like to see a lot more evidence before I was confident.

I also don't understand how he can state so confidently that the test never produces false positives.

[ml1dch]

41 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

The DHSC Comms team have also come out and categorically denied it too

Never believe anything until this Government denies it.

Then it's probably safe to assume that it's true.

[HanoiVillan]

I saw the Department for Health and Social Care on there last night denying any validity to the claims to a guy called 'Professor Piss Shitty'

[Stevo985]

4 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

Never believe anything until this Government denies it.

Then it's probably safe to assume that it's true.

Yeah not saying I believe it. Just adding it for balance

[mottaloo]

37 minutes ago, blandy said:

They always have been a Mickey Mouse outfit.

 

[StefanAVFC]

 

 

https://t.co/lhrVtj8wRw?amp=1

Quote

Coronavirus deaths 41% higher than official figures - ONS

Coronavirus-related deaths were 41% higher in England and Wales than the government's official figures in the week to 10 April.

The new figures, revealed in an Office for National Statistics report, take into account deaths outside of hospitals.
They show that there were 1,662 deaths involving COVID-19 in England and Wales registered up to 10 April that happened outside of hospital.

Of the deaths outside hospitals 1,043 happened in care homes, up from 217 the week before.

A further 466 occurred in private homes, 87 in hospices, 21 in other communal establishments and 45 elsewhere.

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by StefanAVFC

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

Quote

Only a tiny proportion of the global population – maybe as few as 2% or 3% – appear to have antibodies in the blood showing they have been infected with Covid-19, according to the World Health Organization, a finding that bodes ill for hopes that herd immunity will ease the exit from lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms

[LondonLax]

26 minutes ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms

I saw that, interesting though that 2% of 7 billion people is 140million. So far there are said to be 2.5million cases world wide and 140,000 deaths.

If those figures are approximately accurate it would mean that we’re only finding 1.8% of cases and the death rate is only 0.1% (i.e.about the same as the flu).

Edit: There is a lag in the time of catching to the time of death which makes it difficult to use simple calculations to find a rate of death. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by LondonLax

[terrytini]

I’ve watched for a month baffled at the failure of the press to get hold of the Care Home angle.

There has finally been some real attention given to it in recent days but they are still failing to properly report it.

It has been, is, and will continue to be, a complete catastrophe.

STILL no testing, no equipment, ill informed Managers, no meaningful direction  or strategy, ill informed ( and sick) staff, and thousands stuck in them waiting to die and join the thousands who already have.

All I can say is anyone who has a loved one in a Care Home get them out if you can.

 

[markavfc40]

49 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Coronavirus-related deaths were 41% higher in England and Wales than the government's official figures in the week to 10 April.

Suggests that a more realistic death figure in UK at the moment is around 23k. Patrick Vallance said on the 17th March a death toll of 20k would be a good outcome. Within the next 2 weeks we are likely to be at 30k deaths with many more to come. I wonder if 50% higher than a good outcome will be acknowledged by the government, and those guiding them, as getting on for a poor outcome 

[sne]

2 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

Suggests that a more realistic death figure in UK at the moment is around 23k. Patrick Vallance said on the 17th March a death toll of 20k would be a good outcome. Within the next 2 weeks we are likely to be at 30k deaths with many more to come. I wonder if 50% higher than a good outcome will be acknowledged by the government, and those guiding them, as getting on for a poor outcome 

They should have done like Trump and said some made up outrageous figure like 2 million dead is likely and then when the actual figure turns out to be less than that they can pat themselves on the back for a job well done.

[LondonLax]

28 minutes ago, sne said:

They should have done like Trump and said some made up outrageous figure like 2 million dead is likely and then when the actual figure turns out to be less than that they can pat themselves on the back for a job well done.

‘Managing expectations’

[bannedfromHandV]

Under promise and over deliver always.

 

A simple tactic that our government seems totally oblivious to, choosing instead to over promise and under deliver over and over again.

[It's Your Round]

1 hour ago, terrytini said:

I’ve watched for a month baffled at the failure of the press to get hold of the Care Home angle.

There has finally been some real attention given to it in recent days but they are still failing to properly report it.

It has been, is, and will continue to be, a complete catastrophe.

STILL no testing, no equipment, ill informed Managers, no meaningful direction  or strategy, ill informed ( and sick) staff, and thousands stuck in them waiting to die and join the thousands who already have.

All I can say is anyone who has a loved one in a Care Home get them out if you can.

 

I wish it was that easy, my wife’s a deputy manager in a care home. Her best friend is the manager and she’s currently lodging with us due to a recent marriage break up. They’re the only ones keeping the place going, five staff have gone off sick and two left last week. They’re really up against it working long hours to cover shifts at the moment. Thankfully there’s been no cases there yet... it will be an absolute disaster if there was to be. 
 

The latest news today is that they’ve been contacted with details of how to request tests, there’s a local authority operation that will arrange them if they suspect anyone has symptoms. If that gets overwhelmed then there’s a national testing centre at Doncaster airport. That gives me some relief,  but I still hate the fact she has to spend the majority of her time there with next to no government support. 

[snowychap]

 

[snowychap]

13 hours ago, sne said:

Disney furloughs 100.000 theme-park and hotel-workers.

Ho-heigh, ho-heigh,

It's home from work we stay.

[sne]

6 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Ho-heigh, ho-heigh,

It's home from work we stay.

[Genie]

Is Boris back to work now, or still watching episodes of Friends on comedy central?

[HanoiVillan]

2 hours ago, terrytini said:

I’ve watched for a month baffled at the failure of the press to get hold of the Care Home angle.

There has finally been some real attention given to it in recent days but they are still failing to properly report it.

It has been, is, and will continue to be, a complete catastrophe.

STILL no testing, no equipment, ill informed Managers, no meaningful direction  or strategy, ill informed ( and sick) staff, and thousands stuck in them waiting to die and join the thousands who already have.

All I can say is anyone who has a loved one in a Care Home get them out if you can.

 

To be fair to him, Lewis Goodall at Newsnight has been quite good on this. But otherwise, yes, it's been bafflingly absent or downplayed in the media.