Stevo985 Posted April 13, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 13, 2020 The relationship between early lockdowns and shallower curves is pretty clear. UK and US are the only countries still trending upwards in terms of daily death tolls. (note this is daily deaths, not cumulative which people are probably more used to seeing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troglodyte Posted April 13, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 13, 2020 Yeah the pathetic coordinated attacks on Starmer are so transparent but will most likely be largely successful in achieving their aims. It's a **** joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Stevo985 said: The relationship between early lockdowns and shallower curves is pretty clear. UK and US are the only countries still trending upwards in terms of daily death tolls. (note this is daily deaths, not cumulative which people are probably more used to seeing) My one criticism of his claims there is that 'Australia' hasn't locked down; there are different rules in different states, with some allowing people to go out and meet a friend or two outside of the family group. When our restrictions were at a similar stage to (some of) Australia's, the media didn't consider us to have entered a 'lockdown'. I suspect the truth is that Australia's main advantage is that it's far away from anywhere else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: My one criticism of his claims there is that 'Australia' hasn't locked down; there are different rules in different states, with some allowing people to go out and meet a friend or two outside of the family group. When our restrictions were at a similar stage to (some of) Australia's, the media didn't consider us to have entered a 'lockdown'. I suspect the truth is that Australia's main advantage is that it's far away from anywhere else. Well, the distance is a help but Australia does have strong trade links to China (particularly things like the foreign university students could have caused a problem). I think the biggest measure Australia has put in place is that it has made every new arrival to the country spend 2 weeks locked in a hotel (every person that lands in the country is escorted from airport customs to a hotel room by the military). That means they have been able to maintain a pretty effective track and trace program, following the virus where ever it has managed to get by quarantine. As you say, different states have different rules. The biggest and most affected cities of Sydney and Melbourne have on the spot fines of $1000-1600 for being spotted outside your house without a valid excuse. With no new arrivals bringing in the virus the lockdown has enabled them to pretty easily maintain the track and trace program, following any pockets of community spread. There was a major **** up where a cruise ship was allowed to dock with infected people on board but between the state government and the federal government each thought the other was in charge of quarantining the passengers and they ended up being able to walk off the boat and into the community. Id say the U.K. not taking any measures to screen or quarantine new arrivals at airports/ports would have put more strain on the UK system. Edited April 14, 2020 by LondonLax 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted April 14, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 14, 2020 Is it me or are the current lot in charge just a bit shit at doing stuff? This after the antibody test conundrum. UK scraps plans to buy thousands of ventilators from Formula One group Model by Renault and Red Bull F1 teams found unsuitable for complex treatment of coronavirus https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/uk-scraps-plans-to-buy-thousands-of-bluesky-ventilators-coronavirus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted April 14, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 14, 2020 And well done BBC - covering this story now, about 3 weeks too late. Must have run out of Boris health angles. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52275823 Many older people are being "airbrushed" out of coronavirus figures in the UK, charities have warned. The official death toll has been criticised for only covering people who die in hospital - but not those in care homes or in their own houses. It comes after the government confirmed there had been virus outbreaks at more than 2,000 care homes in England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 (edited) These care home figures are going to be frightening aren't they if they ever come out. A director of one of the largest care home providers in the country said that in their care homes they have 2500 suspected or confirmed cases in 232 of the care homes they run. There are 11,000 care homes in UK in total. Last weeks ONS figures from week ending 27th March showed 1080 covid 19 related deaths in UK compared with the 713 reported by the NHS at that time. That is over 50% difference. If we transpose that difference to now the true figure of deaths would be around 17,000. Edited April 14, 2020 by markavfc40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straggler Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 (edited) What worries me is that the tactic still seems to be to end the lockdown in the next few weeks and try and keep the numbers of people getting sick down to a number that the NHS can cope with. As we know more about Covid19 it seems that the news gets worse and worse about what it does to our bodies in both the short and long term. I was due to start a new job when the lockdown began so my start date got put back indefinitely, tbh I don't know if I will really have a job to go to when this is all over, but it effectively leaves me unemployed, so I know I need to get out there and earn some money for the family. However my wife has underlying conditions and is a bit older than me so is tipping into the at risk categories and if I go out to work and bring home the virus to her then I'm effectively killing her. Hell I'm no spring chicken myself who is to say I'll get through it, plenty of people my age (mid 40's) have not made it. But to my point, it is the ending of lockdown that I'm struggling to understand. I know they are developing an app to tell us if we have been exposed to someone else who is displaying symptoms, but that seems to me to be shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted and I'm not sure I want to put my faith in an app produced by this govt. Is the plan really, to get us back out there and get most of the population infected slow enough so people die at a manageable pace? It's a pretty crappy game of Russian roulette for us to play. Also if this is the plan, am I supposed to go back to normal safe in the knowledge that my wife (if infected) will die at a more convenient time? I need a job, but I don't need it more than i need my family. Edited April 14, 2020 by Straggler spelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Jareth Posted April 14, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Straggler said: It's a pretty crappy game of Russian roulette for us to play. Also if this is the plan, am I supposed to go back to normal safe in the knowledge that my wife (if infected) will die at a more convenient time? I need a job, but I don't I need it more than i need my family. We've had a similar chat. For anyone to take risks we need faith that the measures put in place are effective. Testing must be vastly increased and the app must work, but until these two things are proven I am struggling to see how anyone can have any confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 I notice the guardian have started to be much more critical in recent days. I predict they'll be the ones to expose all the details next year when it's all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, DCJonah said: I notice the guardian have started to be much more critical in recent days. I predict they'll be the ones to expose all the details next year when it's all over. Strange. Traditionally they’ve been such big supporters of the Conservative Party. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Awol said: Strange. Traditionally they’ve been such big supporters of the Conservative Party. Isn't it a shame that some media outlets have to be a supporter of one party or the other and can't just produce independent journalism for the good of the people? I don't really care which side they are on. If they hold people to account and report facts then its fine with me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, DCJonah said: Isn't it a shame that some media outlets have to be a supporter of one party or the other and can't just produce independent journalism for the good of the people? I don't really care which side they are on. If they hold people to account and report facts then its fine with me. Two minute explainer: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Another 813 deaths announced in UK but there is excepted to be a lag due to it being a bank holiday yesterday. We'll likely be looking at over 1k more deaths announced tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic09 Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 (edited) 46 minutes ago, DCJonah said: Isn't it a shame that some media outlets have to be a supporter of one party or the other and can't just produce independent journalism for the good of the people? There is no such thing as independent journalism. Everyone has their take on stuff, and while some outlets can try to give both sides of the story, there are 79 different sides that they wouldn't have mentioned. *By independent I mean unbiased Edited April 14, 2020 by Mic09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 5 hours ago, markavfc40 said: These care home figures are going to be frightening aren't they if they ever come out. A director of one of the largest care home providers in the country said that in their care homes they have 2500 suspected or confirmed cases in 232 of the care homes they run. There are 11,000 care homes in UK in total. Last weeks ONS figures from week ending 27th March showed 1080 covid 19 related deaths in UK compared with the 713 reported by the NHS at that time. That is over 50% difference. If we transpose that difference to now the true figure of deaths would be around 17,000. Discussed on here weeks ago - just like in every other aspect of this disaster we are inexplicably way ahead of all news outlets. My wife is Deputy Manager of a Care Home. Mercifully, from my very selfish point of view, she has several serious underlying health conditions which meant her boss barred her from going in. Never thought I’d be thankful for her illnesses. But in the last week before she stopped going ( which was around a month ago now) she had to make the necessary arrangements for what to do at the home over the coming weeks. The stuff she told me was horrific. Many Care Homes have a mix of elderly, dementia, and other users. These people have all but been abandoned from the off. When it comes to numbers, I posted ages ago that Care Home deaths weren’t included, but also that neither were all hospital deaths from Co-vid.......I posted a link which showed the need for a Post Mortem had been waived. As such, it’s only deaths in hospital where the patient tests positive. If they aren’t tested, they also don’t show up on the stats. Likewise deaths at home. If you factor in that even countries with ( much better ) lockdowns can still expect a long period “ at plateau” ( an infected person on lockdown day could still be infecting people 2/3 weeks later, who in turn could still infect for a further 2/3 weeks) ( imagine that in Care Homes) I think your 17,000 is both conservative as of today, and will be dwarfed in the coming weeks. There will be no returning to normal this year. A partial lifting of the lockdown will occur in certain sectors, but be tighter in others, as soon as the cases needing hospital are fewer than Capacity.....but anyone thinking that is anything other than an unavoidable and undesirable step into the unknown is fooling themselves. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Your Round Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Chris Wilder was just on local radio saying that we need football back ASAP to lift the nation. No Chris, football can wait. This is more important than football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted April 14, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted April 14, 2020 Bbc reckons the daily total we’ve got needs another 11% added to it to get the total including deaths in the community Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 Grauniad: Quote Physical distancing measures may need to be in place intermittently until 2022, scientists have warned in an analysis that suggests there could be resurgences of Covid-19 for years to come. The paper, published in the journal Science, concludes that a one-time lockdown will not be sufficient to bring the pandemic under control and that secondary peaks could be larger than the current one without continued restrictions. ... It may be possible to relax distancing measures periodically while maintaining cases within a volume that health services can cope with, but the grave health risks of infection to some people will remain the same until a vaccine or highly effective treatments are available. New treatments, a vaccine, or increasing critical care capacity could alleviate the need for stringent physical distancing, according to the paper in Science. “But in the absence of these, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022,” the authors conclude. The overall numbers of cases in the next five years, and the level of distancing required, were found to depend crucially on the overall current levels of infection and whether all those who are infected gain immunity and, if so, for how long. The authors cautioned that these are big unknowns and that a precise prediction of the long-term dynamics is not possible. ... Serological surveys, assessing the proportion of the population carrying protective antibodies, will be crucial to establish whether people have long-lasting immunity. Other teams have found evidence that the immune response varies across people, with those who only have mild or no symptoms showing a far weaker response. Prof Marion Koopmans, the head of virology at the Erasmus University Medical Centre in Rotterdam, whose team is studying the antibody response of those infected, said complete and permanent protection would be unusual for a respiratory virus. “What you would expect to see – hope to see – is that people who have had it once … the disease would get milder,” she said before the latest paper was released. ...for more see link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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