18/19 Race for Promotion

[cbr600rr]

8 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Remember though a lot of High earners are out of contract come the summer 

Jedinak whelan richards adomah. Them alone is close to 200k a week. That's a huge saving for the club. If as well hogan does well at Sheffield united we can flog him off that be massive. 

Obviously we will sell grealish I think someone will bid 25_30m for him and we will sell. But I don't think it will be as bad as some think. We have shown we can score goals at this level without him. 

 

correct ,some big earners are off the books, but they are not off the book yet, hence the losses , the tv money goes down, wait till the season is over & see what the figures are like.

 

[AvfcRigo82]

16 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Obviously we will sell grealish I think someone will bid 25_30m for him and we will sell. But I don't think it will be as bad as some think. We have shown we can score goals at this level without him. 

We have also seen how useless we are at this level without him.  

[Demitri_C]

8 minutes ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

We have also seen how useless we are at this level without him.  

I’m not so sure. I think smith will be more successful at building a younger side than lambert was. I think we will have more of a team aspect that works bloody hard for each other most weeks but will concede a lot. 

17 minutes ago, cbr600rr said:

correct ,some big earners are off the books, but they are not off the book yet, hence the losses , the tv money goes down, wait till the season is over & see what the figures are like.

 

Yeah we lose the tv money which I think was 15m for last year. But I really don’t think we are going to get in trouble here’s why we might make losses but we have taken steps to reduce the losses ( spent significantly less each year) not ignored the rules like blose have. 

We also can sell grealish if comes to worse and we can get a big fee for him. 

[cbr600rr]

you cast your mind back to the summer..villa were going into admin..

the terry gamble 2-3m a year etc, play off etc, villa were on tv lots as jt was playing,

the club is loosing a huge amount daily, then at end of season the tv money is offset against the losses,its how it works, then as in the summer villa were near selling jack to make up the short fall,you are allowed to run at a loss v revenue in a % to avoid ffp 10m fine & points loss.

spurs & leavy know villa were broke & wanted jack cheap,its possible the owners can not help in the way of last year as rules allow investment etc, assets sell ,its a bad cycle,villa need to get in top flight its that simple, 

the cost of relegation is still gripping, 

 

[AvfcRigo82]

7 minutes ago, cbr600rr said:

you cast your mind back to the summer..villa were going into admin..

the terry gamble 2-3m a year etc, play off etc, villa were on tv lots as jt was playing,

the club is loosing a huge amount daily, then at end of season the tv money is offset against the losses,its how it works, then as in the summer villa were near selling jack to make up the short fall,you are allowed to run at a loss v revenue in a % to avoid ffp 10m fine & points loss.

spurs & leavy know villa were broke & wanted jack cheap,its possible the owners can not help in the way of last year as rules allow investment etc, assets sell ,its a bad cycle,villa need to get in top flight its that simple, 

the cost of relegation is still gripping, 

 

Absolutely.

[VillaChris]

10 hours ago, chips'ngravy said:

It is very reminiscent of 2016/17. Comparing the stats from when Bruce took over with Smith taking over this season gives us an idea of where we are likely to finish.

Bruce took over on match day 13 with us 9pts off the play-offs and took an average of 1.47 pts per game up to match day 31. Smith took over a game earlier and has a pts per game of 1.61. That would see us finish on 68 pts. Almost certainly not enough for the play-offs.

To get into the play-offs we'd need to up the pts per game total to around 2 which translates as needing about 9 wins and 3 draws from our last 15. Not looking likely at the moment based on recent evidence.

We need around 30 points to be in conversation, 74 points and we would be very close if the normal average is 75.

I can see a few wins in April when we play likes of Rotherham, Millwall and Bolton all within two weeks but we'll probably be miles off top 6 by then. That's due to a very poor start to the season and wasting the good run of games we had over xmas/new year.

We need a run like we had when DS first came in but we don't have Jack or Axel in the 11 so not holding my breath.

[Hornso]

After 31 games and after 36 games

2016/17 - 36 points | 45 points
2017/18 - 59 points | 69 points 
2018/19 - 44 points | ?

After 31 games and after 36 games

2016/17 - 16th | 15th
2017/18 - 2nd | 3rd 
2018/19 - 10th | ?

[AvfcRigo82]

1 hour ago, sir_gary_cahill said:

We need stability, we don’t want to be a yo-yo club, if it means one more year in The Championship then so be it. We’re building for the long term in my opinion 

 

42 minutes ago, Junxs said:

Burnley and WBA yoyo'd for a few years before they established themselves in the top flight for a good run. As long as you keep the nucleus of a good squad together that's the main thing. 

And what's to say we'd come straight down anyway? 

We can sign Abraham and Tuanzebe, Grealish would stay. We'd lose those 3 and probably McGinn too if we don't go up this year. 

 

Taken from the Grealish thread but I think it's more suited to this thread:

I agree with Junxs, We need to go up. We need to keep our best player(s) and we would also attract better players - Unfortunately we wouldn't be able to do this in the Championship where we are limited in what we spend and who we sign.

I understand many are happy for another year or so in the championship. Personally, I can't wait to get out of it. It makes more financial sense to the club to also get up this season.

You only have to read some of the comments of posters about the shit officiating and refs against us in this league. If that is the case and there is a 'conspiracy theory' for us to be kept in this league, then my question is why waste millions on a new build when the refs alike could/are apparantly so against us and very poor most games anyway?

I think we need to move with the times or we risk stagnating in this league if the new build does not pay off.

I think a slow rebuild would have worked in say 94/95, but it's 2019 and football evolves very quickly. We need to keep in touch imo and get out this league asap.

[Merson08]

After the Sheffield United game Aston Villa have 44 points out of a possible 93. The final projected points total will currently be 65 points that is points after 46 games. Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th.

There is still 45 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 89 points.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Since the appointment of Dean Smith the new projected points total would be 67 points that is points after 46 games. That has included (Before Smith) of 1.25 PPG from Steve Bruce and the current 1.52PPG from Smith. Using 1.52PPG over the remaining 15 games.

Basing this off last seasons final table will put us 12th. 

Thought for the day: Penny for your draw's.  

[fightoffyour]

1 minute ago, Merson08 said:

There is still 45 points to play for giving us a maximum potential points haul of 89 points. 

[Merson08]

13 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Yeah, like there's a chance you can marry Cheryl Cole (Or whatever she is now known as)

[BOF]

Friday just re-inforced the point if it needed re-inforcing.  If we click, we're up.  If we don't, we're not.

[jackbauer24]

15 minutes ago, BOF said:

Friday just re-inforced the point if it needed re-inforcing.  If we click, we're up.  If we don't, we're not.

The problem is we have clicked but the switch won't stay on. We aren't consistent enough.

[BOF]

1 minute ago, jackbauer24 said:

The problem is we have clicked but the switch won't stay on. We aren't consistent enough.

That means we haven't really clicked.  We've shown promise.  We've shown what we're capable of in fits and starts.  Until we show it consistently, we haven't clicked.  When we play like we did in the final 10 minutes of Friday, or during Smith's honeymoon, we're irresistible in this league.  We just need to make that our default mode, and that's what takes time.

[screwdriver]

Give me a yo yo than being a mid table championship club anyday.

[vreitti]

3 hours ago, BOF said:

That means we haven't really clicked.  We've shown promise.  We've shown what we're capable of in fits and starts.  Until we show it consistently, we haven't clicked.  When we play like we did in the final 10 minutes of Friday, or during Smith's honeymoon, we're irresistible in this league.  We just need to make that our default mode, and that's what takes time.

This. It will happen. Sooner or later.

[7392craig]

4 hours ago, vreitti said:

This. It will happen. Sooner or later.

I hate to be the pessimist. But maybe it won’t at all, maybe it doesn’t click and he ends up getting the sack. It’s not like it doesn’t happen to many teams every season. I’m not saying that this will be the case as I have absolutely no clue, I’ve hoped it works out with every new manager we’ve had since MON, and here we sit mid table in the championship. For all the promise we’ve shown at times, we could get worse and there is much further we can fall. I’m just crossing my fingers and hoping that Smith is the manager who can finally stop the slide.

[Gravillahope]

Forget promotion for this season guys, it's just not going to happen, were just not good enough right through the club. Hopefully a busy but less edgy summer will give us a decent chance next season.

Promotion will feel like a big achievement after being in this league for so long rather than just getting back to "where we belong"

[hippo]

10 hours ago, 7392craig said:

I hate to be the pessimist. But maybe it won’t at all, maybe it doesn’t click and he ends up getting the sack. It’s not like it doesn’t happen to many teams every season. I’m not saying that this will be the case as I have absolutely no clue, I’ve hoped it works out with every new manager we’ve had since MON, and here we sit mid table in the championship. For all the promise we’ve shown at times, we could get worse and there is much further we can fall. I’m just crossing my fingers and hoping that Smith is the manager who can finally stop the slide.

We have won 1 game this year and that via a penalty against the bottom club  - so while the points gap may be doable - the form would need a massive up turn.

[vreitti]

10 hours ago, 7392craig said:

I hate to be the pessimist. But maybe it won’t at all, maybe it doesn’t click and he ends up getting the sack. It’s not like it doesn’t happen to many teams every season. I’m not saying that this will be the case as I have absolutely no clue, I’ve hoped it works out with every new manager we’ve had since MON, and here we sit mid table in the championship. For all the promise we’ve shown at times, we could get worse and there is much further we can fall. I’m just crossing my fingers and hoping that Smith is the manager who can finally stop the slide.

None of us know for sure. I just believe we'll click. The team has goals in it, with or with Grealish, we just need to stop conceding the way we do.