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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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Still half a season to go, if Leeds and Norwich carry on as they have been then fair play. Our job is to build on the momentum Smith has magically managed to build with the same squad of players that Bruce 1) shambolically messed up in the summer and 2) could not get to play like they had met before. Some investment in Jan and who knows, I reckon we can improve on the 1.8ppg Smith has managed so far as we've gone through the horror run to get that 1.8ppg. Do that and sustain it and we might get close. It's mission impossible but we're going into every game to win it at last and I reckon we'll win a lot more than we don't, so it'll at least be a fun ride. Least we can expect is play offs I reckon which from where Bruce left us is about the best we could hope for, best we could achieve from here could be autos still...

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Such a tight league, I feel that anyone of the current top 8 could get the two automatic promotion spots, though obviously Leeds and Norwich are in pole position as it stands. 

Looking at the next four fixtures for each of these teams and I don't see us closing the gap too much unfortunately. I think West Brom might close up on the top 2 and  particularly Norwich and Sheff Utd may go above Derby who have a tough run of fixtures ahead.

With regards to the play off spots I think that Swansea, Stoke and Blues (as outsiders) are the only other sides capable of squeezing in, but really hard to call and can see this been the tightest league in the football pyramid! 

Our next 6 league games after Leeds are; 

A) Swansea A) Preston H) QPR A) Wigan H) Hull H) Ipswich 

Leeds next 6 being;

H) Blackburn H) Hull A) Forest H) Derby A) Stoke A) Rotherham 

Best case (realistic) scenario I can see from that is 19 points for us, beating Leeds in the process with them gaining 10 points (3 x wins Blackburn, Hull & Rotherham and a point against Derby).

The game on Sunday is massive for me on whether we can reach automatics or not.

 

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5 hours ago, hippo said:

Sure a new keeper will help. But beyond that ? does he find a better James Chester? Neil Taylor / elmo ?

Personally what we do defensivley is weird ...the full backs are high up the pitch ...the cbs then play slow passes ...which leaves us on the edge.

with Bolasie and El ghazi in the 11 I dont see why the fbs push on to such an extent. change the players if you like ...for me apart from GK , I dont think it will improve much.

I thought Terry was our DC ....that defense doesnt look like his tactics tbh. 

yeah !

New keeper is essential.

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7 hours ago, villalad21 said:

I actually think Chester have improved dramatically the past few games. It's our fullbacks and keeper that is costing us points at the moment

I agree. Also axels been bloody superb this year. This kids going to be very good. As crap as bruce was he knew how to find good players. Just he didn't know how to use them.

I would say we just need to stop putting pressure on ourselves and just see where we are come jan 1st. I personally can't see Leeds and Norwich imploding to the level we need to catch them.

We needed to take advantage of beating the likes of West Brom and stoke thats cost us . I knew when Tammy missed that sitter we would not go on to win that game. We have my ourselves to blame there 

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Below is a table for the next 6 games for the top 6 teams plus our next six games, it also includes home or away fixture and currently league position. Purely information purposes but teams in the top 6 will be playing each other often over the next 6 games and we should hopefully be able to take advantage of this.

Blackburn appears a lot over the next 4 games, there run while not directly impacting us is worth noting. They play Norwich (2nd), Leeds (1st), Sheff Utd (5th) and West Brom (3rd) as their next 4 games.

 

Leeds AV (A) 8th Blackburn (H) 12th Hull (H) 17th Notts Forest (A) 7th Derby (H) 4th Stoke (A) 11th
Norwich Blackburn (A) 12th Notts Forest (H) 7th Derby (H) 4th Brentford (A) 19th West Brom (A) 3rd Birmingham (H) 10th
West Brom Rotherham (A) 20th Wigan (H) 16th Sheff Wed (H) 18th Blackburn (A) 12th Norwich (H) 2nd Bolton (A) 23rd
Derby Bristol C (H) 14th Sheffield Utd (A) 5th Norwich (A) 2nd Middlesbrough (H) 6th Leeds (A) 1st Reading (H) 21st
Sheff Utd Ipswich (A) 24th Derby (H) 4th Blackburn (H) 12th Wigan (A) 16th QPR (H) 13th Swansea (A) 9th
Middlesbrough Reading (A) 21st Sheff Wed (H) 18th Ipswich (H) 24th Derby (A) 4th Birmingham (A) 10th Millwall (H) 22nd
             
Aston Villa Leeds (H) 1st Swansea (A) 9th Preston (A) 15th QPR (H) 13th Wigan (A) 16th Hull (H) 17th
Edited by Merson08
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44 minutes ago, Merson08 said:

Below is a table for the next 6 games for the top 6 teams plus our next six games, it also includes home or away fixture and currently league position. Purely information purposes but teams in the top 6 will be playing each other often over the next 6 games and we should hopefully be able to take advantage of this.

Blackburn appears a lot over the next 4 games, there run while not directly impacting us is worth noting. They play Norwich (2nd), Leeds (1st), Sheff Utd (5th) and West Brom (3rd) as their next 4 games.

 

Leeds AV (A) 8th Blackburn (H) 12th Hull (H) 17th Notts Forest (A) 7th Derby (H) 4th Stoke (A) 11th
Norwich Blackburn (A) 12th Notts Forest (H) 7th Derby (H) 4th Brentford (A) 19th West Brom (A) 3rd Birmingham (H) 10th
West Brom Rotherham (A) 20th Wigan (H) 16th Sheff Wed (H) 18th Blackburn (A) 12th Norwich (H) 2nd Bolton (A) 23rd
Derby Bristol C (H) 14th Sheffield Utd (A) 5th Norwich (A) 2nd Middlesbrough (H) 6th Leeds (A) 1st Reading (H) 21st
Sheff Utd Ipswich (A) 24th Derby (H) 4th Blackburn (H) 12th Wigan (A) 16th QPR (H) 13th Swansea (A) 9th
Middlesbrough Reading (A) 21st Sheff Wed (H) 18th Ipswich (H) 24th Derby (A) 4th Birmingham (A) 10th Millwall (H) 22nd
             
Aston Villa Leeds (H) 1st Swansea (A) 9th Preston (A) 15th QPR (H) 13th Wigan (A) 16th Hull (H) 17th

Happy Christmas Derby!

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We will be fine, I get now why Fulham and Wolves fans were so cock sure last season - they were witnessing good football and lots of goals. We're only just seeing good stuff, and there will be improvement - it's no longer a case of if we will go up but when. For all those reasons, I'm very happy spending the money, spending the time, and enjoying Villa once more. 

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I have some information too.

 

  Top half teams

  P   W   D   L  Points

10    4    4   2      16......possible 30 - 16 .....=14 dropped points

 

Bottom half Teams

 P   W   D    L  Points

12   4   5    3     17.......Possible 36- 17........=19 dropped points.

 

There are many things to glean.....

  • Dean has had the harder fixtures, but we have had the better return in the upper half marginally
  • We do seem to do better against teams who equally want to play as opposed to them that set up to spoil.
  • So far, there is no factual evidence to suggest that we will do better against lesser opposition, that remains to be seen...but its possible with the better brand of football.
  • Whilst we are only second to West Brom( 3) in goals scored 43 , we are equal with Brentford( 19) with goals against 34 

I'm sure other posters will have their own take on it.....We need a very good run to make anything of the season....playoffs is the best we can hope for IMO.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I didn’t see the stoke game but sounds like they won the physical battle.  I’d probably take a point against a In form Leeds and that will be the end of the very tought run of games. 

From there we have 7 games that are all winnable. That could shoot us up the table. 

Sadly, they did.

It winds me up, but I'll leave it there.

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