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18/19 Race for Promotion


KJT123

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Im not so sure Norwich can get the required run going to keep away the pack. They have been pulling out some close wins recently and been praised for it, but there is only so long you can do that for.

I think they are in a bit of a false position as they are no stronger than the other pretenders.

Stoke and forest are both better than them imo and that's not even counting the other top 6 teams they have to play.

Time will tell whether they have built up enough of a buffer, confidence as well as points wise; I have my doubts.

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8 minutes ago, Nigel said:

Im not so sure Norwich can get the required run going to keep away the pack. They have been pulling out some close wins recently and been praised for it, but there is only so long you can do that for.

I think they are in a bit of a false position as they are no stronger than the other pretenders.

Stoke and forest are both better than them imo and that's not even counting the other top 6 teams they have to play.

Time will tell whether they have built up enough of a buffer, confidence as well as points wise; I have my doubts.

They're certainly the weaker of the current top 2.

Lots of people seem to think Leeds will blow up like they've done last few seasons after xmas but they had a poor run about a month ago (lost 4-1 to WBA after some draws) and they've responded with 5 straight wins. They've also got half a team injured atm (Bamford played his first game in three months yesterday) so I can see them getting stronger when everyone is fit again.

Norwich have had  a very easy run of games recently and only got injury time wins at home to Bolton and Millwall so they will struggle playing better teams.

Problem is we need to win on weekends when they don't which didn't happen yesterday and killed us last season when Cardiff had a poor run in April.

Edited by VillaChris
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3 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

They're certainly the weaker of the current top 2.

Lots of people seem to think Leeds will blow up like they've done last few seasons after xmas but they had a poor run about a month ago (lost 4-1 to WBA after some draws) and they've responded with 5 straight wins. They've also got half a team injured atm (Bamford played his first game in three months yesterday) so I can see them getting stronger when everyone is fit again.

Norwich have had  a very easy run of games recently and only got injury time wins at home to Bolton and Millwall so they will struggle playing better teams.

Problem is we need to win on weekends when they don't which didn't happen yesterday and killed us last season when Cardiff had a poor run in April.

Yep. We don't need to worry too much about trying to overhaul Norwich's total, we just need to keep pace with the chasing pack. The rest will sort Its self out.

When the easy games come that is when we will start putting some points pressure on.

We are doing ok.

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Nothing is decided yet but imo there is a bit of arrogance and delusion creeping in from some Villa fans who seem to think that January will fix everything and Smith is Pep and you will march to the top because you are far superior.

Dean Smith sides arent good defensively, it was Brentfords issue under him, they conceded a lot of goals.

And yes he has had a great start and a hard run of games but the fact remains that in the same games vs the same opponents we have picked up a point more and without 2 penalties it would be 3 points more.

Read that people are bemoaning the loss of Grealish for the draw yesterday.

How about losing Grealish, Abraham and Kodjia for 6 games? Because thats the equivalent of what happened to us in September with Roofe, Bamford and Hernandez.

You very well may catch the top 2, but a few of your fans should calm down imo.

Smith is a considerable improvement on Bruce and had he started the season you would be challenging for top 2.

But that doesnt mean you would be top like some seem to think and running away with the league.

Its going to take a drastic improvement for you to get top 2 now, not impossible but the sides above you arent crap or mediocre like some seem to think.

And yes i do realise the irony of a Leeds fan saying some are arrogant 😁

Really looking forward to the game.

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16 minutes ago, Cjay said:

How about losing Grealish, Abraham and Kodjia for 6 games? Because thats the equivalent of what happened to us in September with Roofe, Bamford and Hernandez.

Didn't have Grealish for half a season last year. Lost in the playoff final. With the handicap of Steve Bruce as well.

Keen to see how good Leeds are because you lot must be confident of going up. Not been impressed with Boro, Derby, West Brom or Norwich. Stoke the best team we've played so far for me, and Sheff U look alright every time I see them.

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DhdXd0L.jpg

 

This is the table since Smith took over. Norwich's run has been insane, ours is pretty good considering the calibre of the opposition, we've played a lot of promotion rivals and a lot of teams in form. We get some 'softer' fixtures next month and everybody above us still has to come to Villa Park. Automatic is still possible. 

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1 hour ago, Nigel said:

Im not so sure Norwich can get the required run going to keep away the pack. They have been pulling out some close wins recently and been praised for it, but there is only so long you can do that for.

I think they are in a bit of a false position as they are no stronger than the other pretenders.

Stoke and forest are both better than them imo and that's not even counting the other top 6 teams they have to play.

Time will tell whether they have built up enough of a buffer, confidence as well as points wise; I have my doubts.

It's not just not them though is it? We  have West Brom boro, sheff united and derby. Bruce absoluteky screwed us with That pathetic start against some of the worst teams in the league.

I mean a return of 2 points against reading millwall and ipswich is absolutely pathetic 

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38 minutes ago, Shropshire Lad said:

The word delusion popping up again I see.

Not seeing the arrogance either. Maybe you can highlight some examples. People have time and time again stressed how difficult it will be to play catch up. But that’s the task we face. The possibility is being debated in a realistic, sober manner.

I also don’t see the relevance of the two penalties meaning you would have collected more points in the same fixtures. So what? We can play that game too - if touchdowns weren’t allowed at the Hawthorns we’d have more points than you from those same fixtures. 

And we had plenty of injuries last season, Terry, Grealish, Kodjia all out for months. Think we’re due some luck on the injury front.

I dont know how to directly quote a bit of a post but.

"You only have to look at the mediocre sides above us to know that if Dean Smith had been at the helm since the start of the season then nobody would be above us. With so many points still to play for teams like Norwich, Leeds, Albion etc will be found out and the cream will rise to the top"

Thats one example, its extreme but there have been others similar.

Two penalties for you got you 2 points i meant, slightly irrelevant on reflection, sometimes your lucky sometimes you arent.

The injury point was about how it seems expected we will struggle when injuries hit which is a common rhetoric it seems our rivals use,  or we will burn out and are "no Wolves or Cardiff" which I'm fed up of reading.

It isnt all of your fans as you say, most are pretty realistic but some like in the quote above are getting way ahead of themselves imo.

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43 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

Didn't have Grealish for half a season last year. Lost in the playoff final. With the handicap of Steve Bruce as well.

Keen to see how good Leeds are because you lot must be confident of going up. Not been impressed with Boro, Derby, West Brom or Norwich. Stoke the best team we've played so far for me, and Sheff U look alright every time I see them.

With your squad this shouldn't even be a conversation, you should be top 6 at least and probably top 2 or 3.

Bruce not fixing your defence was bizarre.

I'm not confident of anything, 15 years of crap have taught me to expect the worst.

WBA were the best side we have played, there gameplan was unique to us apparently, havent replicated it.

Sheffield United were decent, but lack that bit of individual quality imo.

Derby, Forest,Norwich, wasnt impressed by any of them but Norwich clearly have something about them.

Boro are Boro and id hate them to go up.

We are grinding out results which is vital, but it would be nice to find our early season form again where we blew teams away.

 

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3 minutes ago, Cjay said:

WBA were the best side we have played, there gameplan was unique to us apparently, havent replicated it.

Derby, Forest,Norwich, wasnt impressed by any of them but Norwich clearly have something about them.

We are grinding out results which is vital, but it would be nice to find our early season form again where we blew teams away.

We were far the better v WBA. All they had was a big lump out wide to Barnes. Bad finishing, should have had 4 and still were robbed in injury time. Played on the counter against us but were never really looked consistently dangerous.

Forgot Forest, they were OK, not as good as Stoke though. First team in six matches where a point was a fair result.

Norwich limping past poor opponents, they'll fall away.

Key thing for me is, it looks like there's a spot there for someone who wants to go on a good run. If we beat you, which we won't without Grealish, I'll be getting very carried away as I've got you penciled in for one automatic promotion spot. And us beating you means there's 1st to go for.

If you close down our center halves, you'll probably score a couple.

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12 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

We were far the better v WBA. All they had was a big lump out wide to Barnes. Bad finishing, should have had 4 and still were robbed in injury time. Played on the counter against us but were never really looked consistently dangerous.

Forgot Forest, they were OK, not as good as Stoke though. First team in six matches where a point was a fair result.

Norwich limping past poor opponents, they'll fall away.

Key thing for me is, it looks like there's a spot there for someone who wants to go on a good run. If we beat you, which we won't without Grealish, I'll be getting very carried away as I've got you penciled in for one automatic promotion spot. And us beating you means there's 1st to go for.

If you close down our center halves, you'll probably score a couple.

You were better then WBA, should have won that day, was very impressed with your attacking play. Bit surprised WBA were so willing to share possession, didnt expect that.

Stoke are odd, we played them 1st of the season and battered them. I think they appointed the wrong manager, Rowett is a negative manager from the school of Bruce, Pulis etc. With there squad if they had appointed someone like Smith, Bielsa, someone more positive then they would be top 2. But good players tend to show in the end regardless, so they will probably rise up.

Agree on Norwich, you cant keep relying on late goals, that wont sustain a promotion push.

Still very open, theres 9 or 10 teams like yourself who if they could string 7 8 wins together then anything is possible.

YEP is reporting that Grealish may be out vs us? 

I'm not so sure, Bolasie, Abraham and Kodjia are a big, powerful, pacey front line who with service will score goals, i worry about your attacking play especially with our own defensive issues player wise.

At the same time Smith doesnt seem to play a proper holding midfielder, its usually a good ball player like Woods or Hourihane who can pick the ball up deep and start you on your way. Its great going forward but it leaves you very open going the other way.

I expect a similar game plan as there was vs Sheffield United. 

Selective pressing, occasionally dropping off when you have the ball in unthreatening areas, allowing less able ball players to have the ball while man marking the more threatening players all game.

Its a tactic Bielsa has famously used vs Barcelona and Manchester United.

Be an interesting tactical battle imo between Smith and Bielsa.

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2 hours ago, Cjay said:

Nothing is decided yet but imo there is a bit of arrogance and delusion creeping in from some Villa fans who seem to think that January will fix everything and Smith is Pep and you will march to the top because you are far superior.

Dean Smith sides arent good defensively, it was Brentfords issue under him, they conceded a lot of goals.

And yes he has had a great start and a hard run of games but the fact remains that in the same games vs the same opponents we have picked up a point more and without 2 penalties it would be 3 points more.

Read that people are bemoaning the loss of Grealish for the draw yesterday.

How about losing Grealish, Abraham and Kodjia for 6 games? Because thats the equivalent of what happened to us in September with Roofe, Bamford and Hernandez.

You very well may catch the top 2, but a few of your fans should calm down imo.

Smith is a considerable improvement on Bruce and had he started the season you would be challenging for top 2.

But that doesnt mean you would be top like some seem to think and running away with the league.

Its going to take a drastic improvement for you to get top 2 now, not impossible but the sides above you arent crap or mediocre like some seem to think.

And yes i do realise the irony of a Leeds fan saying some are arrogant 😁

Really looking forward to the game.

I think you make some good points....I don't want to agree, due to the rivalry, but I do.

We have some issues and ones that have left us short....but bear in mind we didn't know if we had a football club in July, so preparation was not commensurate with our Motto.

My personal opinion is we still have much work to do on the defensive side of our game and that also impact on Midfield.....I don't think we are balanced in terms of quality, I think the offensive side is much more competent than the defensive side,just my opinion.

I think we are having teams with not much more than brawn, negating us, it concerns me.....not only are we conceding too many goals, we are conceding poor quality ones, we are simply too easy to score against.

We can beat any team in this league, but sadly, they can equally take points of us.....to challenge that must stop.

I accept the January Argument....we need to see What Dean can do....its not nailed on....we have to wait and see.

I am looking forward to the game with you and I think it will be a fine game......congrats on picking up 15 points in your last 5, looking forward to when we can.

 

Edited by TRO
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1 hour ago, The_Rev said:

DhdXd0L.jpg

 

This is the table since Smith took over. Norwich's run has been insane, ours is pretty good considering the calibre of the opposition, we've played a lot of promotion rivals and a lot of teams in form. We get some 'softer' fixtures next month and everybody above us still has to come to Villa Park. Automatic is still possible. 

I think the tougher teams is a debatable one....We still have a chequered record against lower placed teams.

Lower teams tend to spoil and we don't always deal with that, that well or as well as a team with promotion ambitions.

We can beat any team in the league on our day....but equally we can get stopped/stifled easily too.

 

 

Edited by TRO
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Steve Bruce has a chequered record against the weaker teams. If Smith is the man to take us up then we need to beat those teams in the bottom half when we start facing them again. 

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52 minutes ago, TRO said:

I think the tougher teams is a debatable one....We still have a chequered record against lower placed teams.

Lower teams tend to spoil and we don't always deal with that, that well or as well as a team with promotion ambitions.

We can beat any team in the league on our day....but equally we can get stopped/stifled easily too.

Is this a post from September?

We've scored 21 goals in six games against some of the best teams in the league.

Last time we didn't score was two months ago v QPR who we were better than. 

You play us and sit back and you will lose.

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2 hours ago, Dick said:

Arrogance? Quit your bullshit, you're on a Villa forum. We back our team and believe in our team, get over it or go.

It seems to be that the pre-requisite to be a Leeds fan posting on here to post like a total prat and to invent narratives vis-a-vis our expectations for the season. Very few, and I mean, very few on here have 'expected' a top two finish

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How can you say we should be a top 2 side when we got one of the worst defense in the league?

Football is not only a game of attackers you need to have your balance right, and reality is we have shitty full backs and keeper that has cost us 10-15 points in games we should easily have won

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